Welcome to Tuesday, Sept. 8, in MLB! We have a plethora of starting pitcher options on tonight’s nine-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
Top Value Plays
Andrew Heaney – Angels at Rangers – FanDuel $9,200, DraftKings $8,400
We have a very interesting slate on our hands tonight, and it all begins at starting pitcher. There are a ton of options on the board, and they all have their own pros and cons associated with them. We’ll start with Heaney, who’s been let off his leash and has taken full advantage. This is a guy we have been playing all season long, but he wasn’t allowed over 80 pitches in three of his first four starts and was never able to reach his ceiling. That’s completely flipped around since, and Heaney has now eclipsed 100 pitches in three of his previous four starts. He got up to 117 in his domination of the Padres just five days ago. The Angels are now leaning on Heaney big time, and he’s been completely healthy with the leash taken off.
The matchup with the Rangers couldn’t be much better. They rank 28th in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .281 wOBA and 25% strikeout rate (seventh highest). They consistently struggle against southpaws who throw hard, and they have a severe lack of power (.132). It doesn’t take long to see why when you look at the lineup. Most of these guys don’t belong in the MLB, and the ones that do are better against right-handed pitching. Heaney is striking out 9.61 batters per nine innings and allowing just 0.41 HR/9. The 4.09 xFIP is a career-low, and it’s exciting to see him work deep into ballgames. This is going to be a phenomenal game, and Heaney will be looking to outduel Lance Lynn on the other side.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, B
Lance Lynn – Rangers vs. Angels – FanDuel $8,800, DraftKings $9,400
Lynn has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball for years now and still doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. He’s posted just one 4.25+ xFIP season since joining the league in 2011 and has gone 100+ pitches in every game since 2018. The upside is there,= too, as he strikes out close to 10 batters per nine and walks fewer than three. Left-handed bats have sported just a .222 wOBA against Lynn on the season, and the Angels will look to offer up as many of them as they can. While the low BABIP of Lynn suggests some regression, we don’t need a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA. He’s an innings eater and strikes out over a batter per inning. A few runs are no big deal at his price.
The Angels have been solid against righties this season, but there isn’t much to worry about once you get through the heart of the order. Mike Trout has a solid history against Lynn, but he as a solid history against everyone he’s faced a lot. Lynn has shown an ability to go six-plus innings with consistency and even did so while struggling against the Astros and Dodgers in his last two appearances. This is a much easier matchup for the veteran, and I expect another ho-hum six to seven innings with seven to nine strikeouts. He’s an excellent play in cash games, though I think you can do better in tournaments.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, C
Mike Clevinger – Padres vs. Rockies – FanDuel $9,600, DraftKings $9,700
Clevinger is an interesting one, as he hasn’t looked anything like the pitcher he truly is this year. There are no two ways around it. He’s been terrible. With that being said, you still see every tool that made him strike out 12.07 batters per nine a year ago with an elite 3.09 xFIP when you watch him pitch. Call me crazy, but I’m willing to believe the 126-inning sample size over the 28-inning one. Clevinger is going to pick up a rhythm before long with his new team, and I expect a monstrous performance before long. This is a guy who struck out double-digit batters seven times in 2019, and he’s going to find his groove before long. We always want to pick on the Rockies away from Coors Field (28th road WOBA) and Petco Park is an extreme pitcher’s park to say the least. Clevinger is by no means a cash game option, but he is great in tournaments, as the ownership will be low and the ceiling is as high as anyone on the slate.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, D
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