Even though we’ve been without a UFC card since March 14, that hasn’t stopped Alex Baker from putting out some new tools. Yesterday, Awesemo released his “Top Fighters Tool” which shows how often we would expect a fighter to be one of the six highest scorers on the slate. He’s also calculating how often a fighter scores more than 100 fantasy points. This is the most important information we have when trying to construct a lineup. The following are some of my favorite plays based off of this data. Let’s get into some UFC DFS Picks for UFC 249.
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Don’t forget to check out the UFC 249 DFS Strategy Show with Josh Engleman, Pete the Heat and Jason Floyd, tonight on the Awesemo YouTube Channel at 7 ET
UFC DFS Pick No. 1: Tony Ferguson
Leading the way with a 47% chance of being a top-six scorer, Ferguson is the first guy I’m looking to have in a lineup. Now, he’s also projected for the most ownership, so pay close attention to the rest of your lineup construction. This is a guy who simply doesn’t get tired. He cuts weight for a fight that isn’t even happening. He’s going to give Justin Gaethje everything in his tank and then some. Can Gaethje knock him out? Of course, I just don’t think he’s ready for the pace that Ferguson will put on him. I’ll be coming in over the field on Ferguson with the hope that he picks up a win. Getting him at just $8,700 makes the decision even easier.
UFC DFS Pick No. 2: Henry Cejudo
Cejudo has the second-highest odds of being a top-six scorer, but I feel a lot more comfortable about his prospects on Saturday than I do for Ferguson. Cruz hasn’t fought since December 2016, and he wasn’t exactly active before that. There was a time when Cruz was the clear greatest bantamweight of all time. That time has passed. Over the last decade, MMA has evolved exponentially. Cejudo is simply not the same caliber of opponent Cruz is used to. Cruz’s last fight was a close decision loss to Cody Garbrandt, who went on to get starched in his next three fights. If Cejudo were to fight Garbrandt right now, the line would be heavily in Henry’s favor. I’m just not sure what Cruz can bring to the table. While he’s a good grappler/wrestler, there’s no chance I can say he’s better than the former Olympic gold medalist. There’s not a person on the planet, including Cruz, that would say he has a power advantage. I just can’t imagine a legit path to victory, which means I’ll have a heavy dose of Cejudo in my lineups.
Related
- The MMA DFS Cheatsheet
- Awesemo’s MMA DFS Primer for DraftKings + FanDuel
- UFC DFS Picks for UFC 249
UFC DFS Pick No. 3: Anthony Pettis
This one scares me, but I have a sneaky suspicion that Donald Cerrone is at the end of the line. He’s coming off of three straight brutal beatings, and he already has a lopsided loss to Pettis on his resume. Pettis has the ninth-highest odds of finishing as a top-six scorer, which is in lockstep with his relative rank in projected ownership. At his salary, I would much rather take my chances with Pettis than with Jacare. Plus, Pettis has a similar top-6% and projected ownership as Calvin Kattar, only he costs $700 less. I think Pettis will get to Cerrone early in what will turn out to be Cowboy’s final fight in the UFC.
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How can Waterson be so cheap vs Esparza ? Not only is she the better fighter,she will win by SUB RD 2.You not giving Gaethje a chance is a mistake. Ferguson was almost KO’D vs Vannatta I believe. So if Gaethje even touches Ferguson clean if nap time for Ferguson in FOTN while it lasts. Good Luck👊