NASCAR DFS Cook Out Southern 500 Picks | DraftKings + FanDuel

The field is set for Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 with Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin on the front row. Thus, let’s jump into this week’s NASCAR DFS breakdown as we discuss this week’s top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Lineup Thoughts for DraftKings and FanDuel

If you missed my preview from earlier this week, I already addressed my thoughts on dominators then. However, since we have salaries for both DraftKings and FanDuel, it makes sense to revisit those ideas. For the most part, lineup construction is remaining static on either site with a minimum of two and a maximum of three. If playing cash, you’re better off going with three. However, in tournaments, it will inevitably be a three-dominator build that ends up optimal Sunday night.

The Front Row

Making the case for Hamlin is much easier than for Elliott. Hamlin has won at Darlington in two of the last five races. In this tire package, run by Goodyear, Hamlin has two wins and a fifth-place finish. In 2020 afternoon into evening races using the 550-horsepower package, Hamlin’s finishes go first, 29th, second, first and first. Outside of Dover, Hamlin and chew chief Chris Gabehart have shown that if they return a track with notes, they will nail the setup and go on to win. Everything is lining up for Hamlin to have another stellar race.

So, what’s so tough about Elliott? It’s not so much about his Darlington history or what he’s done in this tire package. He finished fourth in the first Darlington race and was in line to win the second race before getting wrecked by Kyle Busch. In the other race using this tire package (Homestead), Elliott finished second. It’s not about day-into-night races either because Elliott went second and first at Charlotte.

The pesky thing with Elliott is his pole position. The last time we saw Elliott on the pole (Dover-1) he led a grand total of 27 laps. Following a competition caution, Elliott lost the lead and never gained it back. Frustratingly enough, we’re looking at a similar scenario on Sunday. The only saving grace for Elliott is we shouldn’t see a driver in the back go with two tires to gain track position. Darlington eats up tires so going with two tires will be a certain death blow for anyone who goes galaxy brain.

However, that doesn’t rule out Elliott simply losing the lead because of a slow pitstop.

Other Potential Dominators

Alex Bowman, 4th ($9,600 FanDuel, $7,900 DraftKings) — We’ve had to patiently wait a few months for Bowman to get back on our radars. Now that the temperatures are cooling down again, we can start to consider Bowman. Outside of Daytona and Talladega, the last time Bowman led a lap was in the second Charlotte race. In those two day-into-evening Charlotte races, Bowman led 215 combined laps. In the first Darlington race, Bowman led 41 laps and finished second.

At Darlington, we know our dominators start upfront. Bowman fits that bill at an extremely discounted price on DraftKings.

Martin Truex Jr., 6th ($12,400 FanDuel, $9,400 DraftKings) — If it is an afternoon into evening affair, I’d be remiss if I failed to bring up Truex. Going back to his time with Furniture Row, his trademark has been adjusting setups in real time for these night events. His lone 2020 win came at Martinsville, albeit a different package.

Others: Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney

Tournament Place Differential

The name of the game for tournaments on either DraftKings or FanDuel is going to be nailing these top-20 starting drivers who maintain position, never lose a lap and end up in the single digits by the end of the race.

Matt DiBenedetto, 11th ($7400 DraftKings) — DiBenedetto is a very specific DraftKings play, and it is because of his salary. With an emphasis on dominators this week, I need to save salary somewhere. DiBenedetto offers that as the cheapest driver on DraftKings starting in the first 17 positions. In the previous two Darlington races, he finished ninth and 14th.

Kurt Busch, 16th ($10,800 FanDuel, $9,000 DraftKings) — Busch is the arbitrage play for Darlington this week. He’s the cheaper version of his brother Kyle with similar floors and ceilings. He’s also the cheaper pivot off of Erik Jones chalk on either DraftKings or FanDuel. In his past five Darlington races, Busch’s worst finish was 15th in the rain-shortened Wednesday night event. Every other finish has been seventh or better.

Others: Kyle Busch, Aric Almirola, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher

Cash Place Differential

Erik Jones, 30th ($10,500 FanDuel, $9,600 DraftKings) — You don’t need a lengthy paragraph explaining why you should play Jones. While I can’t project him to lead any laps because of his starting position, Jones possesses the safest floor of anyone Sunday because of his starting position. Add that place differential upside to a driver who has failed to finish worse than eighth at Darlington in his short career, and it gives him a pretty good ceiling too. For what it is worth, if you don’t play Jones in head-to-heads or double-ups, you’re playing with fire.

Tyler Reddick, 24th ($9,000 FanDuel, $7,000 DraftKings) — It’s a Reddick week, and man do you love to see it. In the two spring Darlington races, Reddick finished 13th and seventh. In the Homestead race, using the same tire package, Reddick finished fourth. While a little pricey on FanDuel, Reddick’s salary is great on DraftKings, making him a perfect cash game play.

Others: Ty Dillon, Ryan Preece, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com