NBA DFS action on Monday night features a nine-game slate that provides plenty of options for sound lineup construction and massive upside. There are several standout plays that rate as highly likely to be in the optimal lineup, and without a few of those in lineups, scoring will simply fall short. With a strong foundation of highly optimal and positively leveraged plays to build from, mixing and matching the remaining options while focusing on unique lineup constructions is the path to victory in the largest-field GPPs.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this will be a broad view of both top-end and value plays. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Robert Williams — Boston Celtics: DraftKings — $6,100 — C | FanDuel — $7,100 — PF/C
A night after a bit of a letdown, Robert Williams is back on the top of the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. With the Celtics playing the second night of a back-to-back, it seems likely that Al Horford will be on the shelf tonight, which should open more opportunities for Williams to shine. He has posted 0.96 fantasy points per minute this season, playing 33.7 minutes a game and requiring just 8.4% usage. Williams has averaged 6.7 rebounds and 4.7 stocks in the short season and has the ability to rack up a multi-category score without having to score many real-life points. Last season, Williams contributed a 40% rebounding rate and an 18% assist share while pulling 14.5% usage across all situations.
On the DraftKings slate, Williams has a 29% optimal lineup rate that leads the entire slate at any position. He costs just $6,100 and fits into the center spot only, coming in with a monster 53.3% boom score probability against a 38.4 raw DraftKings points projection. He will be under-owned to a significant degree by the public at this point. The most recent ownership projections have him at just 19.4% popularity, which creates a major leverage opportunity. Williams is carrying the third-highest leverage score on the DraftKings slate at a 9.6. Fellow center Ivica Zubac ranks ahead of Williams for leverage, but he is projected for just 27.8 DraftKings points, a 30.8% boom score probability, and a 12.3% optimal lineup rate. Williams is the top play on the board tonight and should be rostered at a significant rate.
Williams looks even stronger on the FanDuel slate, where he slots in as both a center and a power forward for just $7,100. Williams has a 33.8% optimal lineup rate on the site, and he carried a 46.2% boom score probability against a 41-point FanDuel projection. Awesemo has Williams reaching those marks on a 31-minute projection as well, if Horford does not play there is a chance he sees both more time and more usage, which would only push his quality up. Williams is projected for just 16.9% public popularity on the slate. At that rate, Williams comes into the night with a 16.9 leverage score that is more than double that of the next-closest ranked player at any position, this is a major upside play if numbers hold going into lock.
Franz Wagner — Orlando Magic: DraftKings — $4,400 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $4,100 — SF/SG
The Magic are another team on the second night of a back-to-back early in the season. Through their first three games, rookie Franz Wagner has been a solid NBA DFS value from site to site. Wagner has provided 0.70 fantasy points per minute through his first three games, seeing 14.9% usage and logging 34.9 minutes per game. He has turned that into 12.7 points per game, shooting 38.5% from three-point range while pulling in five rebounds and 1.7 stocks per night over the first three. Wagner has clear upside and seems to be in line for plenty of run once again, but sites have not responded with much of a price increase, making him a strong value play across the industry once again.
FanDuel considers Wagner a small forward or shooting guard and has priced him at $4,100 for this slate. This creates a situation that finds him in the optimal lineup in 29.7% of Awesemo’s simulations for this slate. He has a 27.9 raw FanDuel points projection and is coming up with a major 47.3% boom score probability that ranks second overall at any position on the site. Wagner is projected to be in roughly a quarter of FanDuel lineups, but that does not reach his optimal lineup rate on the site, giving him positive leverage to a 4.5 score and making him a significant target for roster construction. Wagner is another foundational piece of lineup building tonight, including him as the second click after Williams is a strong start to building a lineup that follows along the optimal construction path.
On the DraftKings slate, Wagner slots in as a small forward or a power forward, which gives him strong flexibility. He costs $4,400 on the slate and lands in the optimal lineup in 25.7% of simulations, ranking him second on the site at any position. He is the slate leader on the site with a 12.2 leverage score against just 13.5% public popularity. Wagner is projected for 27.8 DraftKings points, and he carries a 39.5% boom score probability that sits fifth among players from all positions. With the best leverage score on the board and a major shot at production that approaches a ceiling for his salary, Wagner is a great play to pair with Williams on this site as well.
Brandon Ingram — New Orleans Pelicans: DraftKings — $8,300 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $8,200 — SF
Brandon Ingram has averaged 37.1 minutes over the season’s first three games, acting as a focal point for the Pelicans who have given him 31% usage to start the season. Ingram has posted 1.14 fantasy points per minute, but he was a 1.12 player against just 27.9% usage last season, so it would be reasonable to expect there is a tiny bit more to be squeezed from his numbers in terms of upside. With the Pelicans still lacking a major piece in injured Zion Williamson, Ingram will carry a major load from night to night and will likely see his price climb for the requirement, at least until the squad is at full strength. Getting to him while still at a discount on both sites makes sense and it is borne out in the boom/bust numbers.
Ingram fits into both forward spots on the DraftKings slate, where he is priced at $8,300. He has a 44.2-point DraftKings projection and a 35.5% boom score probability on the site. Ingram is no one’s favorite play, but the lack of ownership creates an opportunity around including him in lineups. Ingram has a 4.0 leverage score on the site, landing in the optimal lineup 15.1% of the time against just 11.1% ownership. This is a strong play for DraftKings lineups tonight, Ingram should not be left on the shelf, and rostering him well ahead of the field seems like a strong play.
On the FanDuel slate, Ingram is just a small forward, but the multi-position eligibility of many other players on the slate keeps things flexible and allows NBA DFS gamers to move pieces around the board around him. Ingram costs $8,200 on the site and slots in with a 42.1 projection against a 30.1% boom score probability. He has a 6.9 leverage score that is the fifth-highest mark in the category, making him a strong play for contests on this site as well. Ingram rates as the top small forward on the board, though multi-position eligibility would give him even more upside. Rostering him in excess of the public’s relatively low 15.9% projected rate is a sharp move on this slate.
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