NBA DFS tonight features a five-game slate with some interesting contests available across the industry despite the competition from other Sunday sports. There is one game (Warriors – Kings) that is totaled over 230 points tonight, with several of the remaining four games falling below the 220 mark. This could serve to concentrate ownership even further than the slate’s limited selection already would, making an ideal situation for those willing to spread out for tournament exposure. Getting to a broad range of outcomes is a great approach to a slate of this size; there are a few go-to options in varying price tiers that can be matched with a rotation of highly projected positively leveraged players on all sides. Utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool is the best approach to getting to the best available plays within a large slate of entries, or when simply hand-building two or three.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this will be a broad view of both top-end and value plays. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Joel Embiid — Philadelphia 76ers
DraftKings — $10,200 — C | FanDuel — $9,900 — C
Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and the 76ers are playing coy with his status once again. This is going to be a frustration for NBA DFS gamers throughout the season as the team manages Embiid’s minute. Assuming he plays through the questionable tag once again, he looks like a strong option on both sites. He has played each of the first two, averaging 27.7 minutes and receiving 34.4% usage. He has responded with 1.66 fantasy points per minute this season, averaging 20.5 real-life points and posting a 28.6% rebounding rate and 45% assist share, as well as four stocks per game.
On the DraftKings slate, Embiid lands in the optimal lineup in 21.1% of simulated slates, making him a valuable piece of the puzzle but less of a standout than across town. Embiid ranks ninth overall in the category here, yet he is coming in with a significant positive leverage mark. The public is projected for merely 13.1% ownership, which leaves Embiid with a healthy 8.0 leverage score. Considering his monster 51% boom score probability and 54.7-point raw DraftKings projection, Embiid looks like an excellent play for GPPs on the site. Getting to more shares of him than the field is an easy proposition despite a hefty salary on the slate.
Embiid is more of a standout play on the blue site. He is carrying a 40.8% optimal lineup rate that ranks him first overall on the slate at any position. Embiid has a 45.6% boom score probability and a FanDuel projection of 53.3, yet the field is not getting to him nearly enough. The public is projected for a limited 31.4% exposure, which seems high on its own, but when judged against a short slate and a play as strong as Embiid appears to be, it is clear that the public is well behind the curve. Assuming Embiid plays, he is an excellent option and is carrying a 9.4 leverage score on the FanDuel NBA DFS slate tonight.
De’Aaron Fox — Sacramento Kings
DraftKings — $8,300 — PG | FanDuel — $8,500 — PG
The Kings are playing their high-powered California rivals, with the Warriors coming into Sacramento for a shootout in the night’s most highly totaled game. De’Aaron Fox stands out on the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel for his upside and positive leverage in the spot. Fox has seen 35.6 minutes per game over the first two contests, posting 1.10 fantasy points per minute on 30.8% usage. Fox averaged 1.23 points per minute on 30.4% usage across all situations last year, so it is reasonable to expect more. Fox is a strong consideration across the industry tonight, given the anticipated pace and total of this game.
On the FanDuel slate, Fox lands as the second-best option on the board with a 38.3% optimal lineup rate. He is carrying a strong positive leverage mark as well, coming in at a 4.0 with the field trailing his quality despite an ownership projection well over 30%. Fox has a 26% boom score probability, his price is relatively appropriate to both his median projection and upside on the site, but there is strong value in his raw scoring potential and the available leverage. Fox is a go-to play on the blue site and well worth the upper-middle salary.
Fox is ranked third overall on the DraftKings slate with a 28.6% optimal lineup rate. He costs $8,300 on the slate, a salary that is keeping his ownership to just 26.8% despite the good spot. Fox comes up with a 38.2% boom score probability against his 43.3 DraftKings projection. He stands to provide both a safe high floor and an even higher ceiling potential on this slate.
De’Anthony Melton — Memphis Grizzlies
DraftKings — $4,200 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,300 — SG/PG
De’Anthony Melton ended up as a chalk value play on last night’s slate, with teammate Dillon Brooks out, and the same looks to be true for tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back. Melton has started both games for the Grizzlies this season, averaging 31.8 minutes a night and posting 0.98 fantasy points per minute on just 18.4% usage. Last season he averaged 1.02 per minute on just 18.9% volume, so there is slightly more to be squeezed from the value play. Melton had a .568 true shooting percentage last season, pulling in a 16% rebounding share and a 22.3% assist percentage in his limited minutes. When he is starting and seeing significant time, there is significant value to be had in a point-per-minute player at the prices at which sites continue to list Melton.
On the DraftKings slate, Melton comes up as the leading play by optimal lineup rate. He lands in the night’s top lineup in 37% of Awesemo’s simulations for the slate, but he comes up covered in chalk as well. Melton will be owned by roughly half of the field, pushing him to a -13.1 leverage score that is stretching the desire to get over the field. Still, Melton is far more optimal a play than most other options on the slate, and he provides flexibility between positions, making roster construction easy on the slate. Including Melton as a foundational value piece and exceeding even the 50% ownership that the field has may be worthwhile on a short slate.
Melton ranks highly on FanDuel as well, though he comes in at a $5,300 salary on the blue site as compared to $4,200 on the other side of the industry. He is carrying a 19.8% optimal lineup rate that ranks 16th overall on the slate. He has a 20.4% boom score probability that has value, and he is projected for 27.4 raw FanDuel points, which could provide value on a short slate before getting to ceiling territory. Melton falls into negative leverage on this site as well, and with a far lower optimal rate, it is more difficult for the play to recover. On the FanDuel slate it makes more sense to undercut the field on Melton and spread shares to more highly optimal plays.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NBAPAGE]
