NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

If you weren’t here for yesterday’s three-game NBA DFS slate, it seems unlikely that you’re reading this sentence right now. Fellow grinders will recognize tonight’s nine-game slate for an opportunity to capitalize on a general lack of attention, despite reduced prize pools around the industry. With all eyes on another league, and game-start timing coming close to coinciding with the later playoff game, there should be a bit of a hit to the quality of the average lineup in NBA DFS GPPs, using Awesemo’s tools can help capitalize on that situation. The slate is an appealing one as well, there are two games carrying 235.5 totals, the Hawks vs Hornets and Nets vs Timberwolves games are both also at just three-point spreads, making them ideal targets for significant NBA DFS scoring. The rest of the slate is made up of average situations, but there are strong value plays up and down the board and a handful of noteworthy stars who profile well for optimal lineup rates and boom score probability.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top leverage plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Anthony Edwards: DraftKings — $7,100 — SG/SF | FanDuel –$6,800 — SF/SG

For a player with clear 50-point upside in fantasy scoring, Minnesota wing Anthony Edwards looks like a strong mid-range value option the way he is priced around the industry today. The second-year man has produced a 1.06 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations so far this season, putting up that mark on a 26.8% usage rate that is only slightly higher than the 26.4% at which he produced a 1.0 per-minute mark last season. Edwards has flashed major scoring upside at various points this season, but he has been at just a 0.82 rate over the team’s three most recent games, including a 26-point FanDuel outing in 24 minutes in his most recent appearance. Minnesota point guard Patrick Beverley is questionable for tonight’s highly totaled game, adding to the opportunity on the floor for a player of Edwards’ notable upside. He is priced inexpensively on both sites while offering multi-position eligibility, there is clear upside in adding shares beyond the rate at which the field is rostering Edwards on at least one site, while he is efficiently owned at worst on the other.

The fair ownership comes on the FanDuel slate, where Edwards is at a -4.8 leverage score, but also ranks third by optimal lineup appearance rate. The player has eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward for just $6,800, which is clearly too low for someone projected for a median of 37.15 FanDuel points. Edwards has a 34.74% boom score probability and he lands in the optimal lineup in 23.7% of simulated slates. With a number of frequently optimal wings eligible at similar prices at both shooting guard and small forward, mixing and matching shares of Edwards at or around the public’s projected 28.5% ownership seems advisable on the blue site. Similarly ranked players include value man Furkan Korkmaz, and mid-range shooting guards Cole Anthony and Tyrese Maxey, both of whom also carry eligibility at point guard on the site. The flexibility of positions among the most frequently optimal FanDuel players allows for creative lineup combinations on today’s slate.

Edwards lands in the optimal lineup in 19.8% of simulated DraftKings slate. That rate has him ranked second overall on the site, trailing only Korkmaz at 26.9% for $4,000 at the same shooting guard and small forward eligibility. Both Edwards and Korkmaz can be included in the same DraftKings lineup, but the site does not offer quite as much flexibility as is available across town. Edwards also lands at a higher price against the lower cap, coming in at $7,100 with a 38.6-point median projection, and pushing him to a 35.37% boom score probability on tonight’s slate. Edwards is a frequently optimal play who also has one of the slate’s stronger probabilities of hitting a ceiling score, but he is under-owned by the public. As of the mid-afternoon, Edwards ranks as a positively leveraged play, the public is projected for just 18.3% ownership and he comes up with a 1.5 leverage score.

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Kristaps Porzingis: DraftKings — $7,400 — PF | FanDuel — $8,300 — PF/C

The most highly projected player with positive leverage on both sites is Dallas big man Kristaps Porzingis, who has landed in this space in several recent slates following some poorly managed pricing around the industry. Porzingis has produced a 1.28 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations this season, and he has been at a 1.1 per-minute mark over the team’s last three, but he has seen his price sink to $8,300 on FanDuel and all the way to $7,400 on the DraftKings slate. At those prices, the talented seven-footer has a lot of value for NBA DFS purposes, but he is underappreciated on this slate. Porzingis is a premium value play who comes with positive leverage for too cheap a price, he should be rostered ahead of the field’s rate on this slate, as an under-owned play the last time out, the big man put up a 37.7-point FanDuel night in just 32 minutes, he is projected for another 30.9 minutes tonight and has upside beyond that score.

At his very cheap DraftKings price, Porzingis lands in the optimal lineup in 18.2% of Awesemo’s simulated slates. Despite that, he is coming up as a 2.5 leverage score play who just happens to be carrying a 40.1-point median projection on the site. Porzingis is slated for a 36.83% boom score probability, the fifth-highest rate on the board behind Korkmaz, superstars Nikola Jokic and Ja Morant, and solid Bulls center Nikola Vucevic. Playing a handful of these options in the same lineup is an appealing foundation for upside and optimal lineup appearances. Porzingis is projected for just 15.7% public ownership, he is not as popular as his probability suggests he should be, take advantage and add shares beyond the rate at which the public is projected to include him in lineups.

Porzingis drops to 17th overall on the FanDuel slate with a 13.4% optimal lineup appearance rate in simulated slates for the blue site. He has eligibility at both power forward and center, but the increased salary does have an impact on the site. The Dallas big man is carrying a 40.1-point median projection and he has a very good 23.01% boom score probability on the slate, both of which are doing a lot to keep him firmly in play. His viability is extended by a lack of public popularity on the FanDuel slate. Porzingis comes up with just a 10.9% ownership projection on the site, leaving him with an appealing 2.5 leverage score on this side of the industry as well. Getting extra Porzingis in NBA DFS lineups seems like a strong approach regardless of where they are being entered on tonight’s slate.

Furkan Korkmaz: DraftKings — $4,000 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,300 — SG/SF

One of just a few standouts from the extreme value tier, so far, for tonight’s slate is Philadelphia wing Furkan Korkmaz, who comes up as the leading optimal lineup rate player on one site and a strong contender for that role across town. Korkmaz offers shooting guard and small forward eligibility on both sites and he comes at a very cheap price, making him very popular but also a clear building block for highly projected lineups. Korkmaz will be a major inflection point on the slate, either helping lineups with a leg-up to an otherwise inaccessible set of lineup constructions or tanking a wide share of the slate with poor performance. Korkmaz has produced at just a 0.74 fantasy points per minute rate this season and he has been mired in struggles with just a 0.64 per-minute mark over the last three. In 39 memorable minutes in the team’s most recent game, Korkmaz produced just 12.5 FanDuel points, a remarkably low total for such a large amount of playing time.

On FanDuel, Korkmaz lands at a $4,300 salary at both shooting guard and small forward. He is the seventh-highest player on the board with an 18.5% optimal lineup appearance rate in Awesemo’s simulated FanDuel slates, giving him strong utility but still ranking him behind Edwards, DeMar DeRozan, Maxey, and Anthony at one position or the other. Korkmaz is negatively leveraged on the slate, but only to a -2.7 mark that is not overly concerning. For the value, the player can be included in FanDuel rosters, he is projected for a 25.34-point median score and he has a sharp 29.51% boom score probability that can be targeted. Undercutting the 21.2% projected public popularity by a slight amount could be a good approach, but rostering Korkmaz’s value with the field and getting different elsewhere is a fine approach as well.

As easily the most frequently optimal player on the DraftKings slate, Korkmaz is far more difficult to skip. He is just a $4,000 option at both shooting guard and small forward and he is also the slate-leader with a 41.09% boom score probability. That mark combined with his 26.9% optimal lineup appearance rate, which outpaces Edwards’ rate by seven percentage points, makes Korkmaz very appealing despite negative leverage. The Philadelphia wing is a foundational piece of chalk for DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight. He is projected for 30.1% ownership and a -3.2 leverage score, but he should be included in easily that many lineups, if not more. Korkmaz is not the most comfortable play, but he seems like a very necessary piece unless or until unforeseen values open up with news as lock approaches.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.