NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

With Sunday’s sports action squarely and fairly focused elsewhere, what might have otherwise been a good opportunity for a league-wide day off, instead we have a three-game NBA DFS slate that tips off at 6 pm ET. With both DraftKings and FanDuel creating smaller prize pools for the contest, there seems to be a lack of interest overall. There is an argument to be made that this is a nice opportunity in GPPs that some of the bigger players may not care as much about and that the public will not be chasing in nearly as much volume, but the slate itself also leaves something to be desired. Among the three games, we find the highest total in recent memory, with Vegas pushing the Rockets – Kings game all the way to 240. The hometown Kings are favored by 5.5 in that one, but it should be a competitive game with a deep set of mid-range options on both sides. The Warriors and Timberwolves are slated for a 216-point total and the Jazz – Nuggets game checks in at 223. With both of those games starting two hours after the heavily totaled game tips, we could have some interesting late swapping requirements, depending on what happens with lineups and DFS opportunities when it comes to probability and popularity.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With three games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top positively leveraged plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

DraftKings & FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Nikola Jokic: DraftKings — $12,000 — C | FanDuel –$10,900 — C

The runner-up for the most frequently optimal player on one site and by far the top option on the other should just never be someone who is priced at $12,000 and $10,900 respectively, yet that is the situation with Nuggets superstar center Nikola Jokic today. The amazing big man in the middle for Denver has produced an astounding 1.70 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, soaking up 31% of the team’s usage. Jokic facilitates the offense as well as any point guard in the game, he has a massive 37.2% assist percentage and a 21.2% rebounding share that make him the best multi-category man in the league. The center is projected for a 33.1-minute night tonight, over the team’s three most recent games he has been in a slump, but only when considering the name on the jersey, for anyone else a 1.51 per-minute rate would be fantastic. Even at his wildly high salaries, Jokic looks like the top overall option on the entire slate, and he comes with interesting leverage marks.

On DraftKings, the popular center will be rostered in 40.2% of public lineups, despite the $12,000 price tag. Jokic is simply that valuable on the slate, he is carrying a slate-leading 58.2-point median projection and has a 35.3% boom score probability that ties for the top spot on the board, despite having by far the highest salary. Jokic lands in the optimal lineup in 37.3% of simulated slates, second highest on the entire DraftKings slate. He will be popular, but there is nothing overly concerning about a -2.9 leverage score on a performer who is so likely to post by far the highest fantasy score at his position and overall on the slate. Jokic is very good chalk, he is the play that any of the value options on the board are unlocking and the reason that they should be used.

At a far lower price against a higher cap on the FanDuel slate, Jokic is explosively valuable. While that number is a still hefty $10,900 as a center-only play, Jokic smashes his way into lineups in 61.5% of simulated slates for the blue site, by far the top option on the board. The Denver center outpaces the next-most frequently optimal option on the slate by 5.1 percentage points and he is one of the few positively leveraged plays on the slate, coming in with a 4.6 in the category. The appeal in getting to an under-owned Jokic should be clear, under-owned being relative for a player who is projected to land in 56.9% of public lineups, of course. The leverage score makes it easy to get over even that large ownership mark, Jokic is simply the best producer and best play on the slate.

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Royce O’Neal: DraftKings — $4,600 — PF | FanDuel — $5,300 — SF/PF

On a short slate, the search for reliable value plays from under-owned angles typically gets desperate quickly, with low per-minute producers suddenly looking like interesting pieces. One such option this evening is Jazz big man Royce O’Neal, who is projected for 29.9 minutes in the starting lineup. O’Neal has averaged 36.3 over the team’s three most recent games, turning in just a 0.69 fantasy points per minute rate, right around his 0.70 season average across all situations. O’Neal typically sees 31.5 minutes a night, but he is capable of producing in the right spots. In the team’s most recent game, O’Neal posted 30.3 FanDuel points in his 36 minutes, a respectable score for the money he cost on the slate. O’Neal stands out more for his leverage score than his overall raw projection or upside probability on either site, but he is in play on a short slate tonight.

On FanDuel, the multi-position forward comes in as a $5,300 option, the mid-range price takes away a bit of the appeal. Where O’Neal does provide value is in his 4.8 leverage score, he lands in the optimal lineup in 10.9% of simulated slates but the public is well behind the curve, putting him in pay for GPP lineups at the very least. O’Neal is projected for a 22-point night on the blue site, and he has a lowly 4.7% boom score probability at the unfairly high salary, but with just 6.1% of the field getting to him he is still a bit of a quality differentiation option. It is important to pay attention to not getting overextended on this play, but getting beyond the field’s mark on O’Neal on the FanDuel slate seems advisable.

As a $4,600 power forward, O’Neal has more upside on the DraftKings slate. He is projected for the same 22 fantasy points as he was on the other side of town, but at this price and with the slate’s positional configuration, O’Neal stands tall with a 17.1% optimal lineup appearance rate. The crowd is not giving him the necessary attention, only 12.5% of the public is projected to include the big man in their constructions so far, leaving him with a targetable 4.6 leverage score that should be rostered aggressively. O’Neal has just a 12.1% boom score probability, he is just a building block on the slate, but it would not be out of line to double the field’s ownership on DraftKings.

Jalen Green: DraftKings — $5,000 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $4,700 — SG/PG

With a lot of attention being paid to the more highly priced options in the Rockets – Kings game, guard Jalen Green seems to be lacking justifiable popularity, to varying degrees. At worst, Green is a solid mid-range option that less than 20% of the industry will include in their lineups on a three-game slate. The guard has played in 29 games this season, putting up just a 0.72 fantasy points per minute rate on 23.1% usage and 51.9% true shooting. He is minimally valuable in other categories, coming in with a 12.1% assist rate and 4.9% rebounding percentage. Green put up just 19.4 FanDuel points in his most recent outing, concerningly that came in 32 minutes and the guard has averaged just 0.65 per minute over the team’s three most recent games. Still, with ownership just in the teens and another minutes projection in the 30s, it makes sense to look at Green on this limited slate.

On the FanDuel board, Green comes in with a 15.7% optimal lineup appearance rate, but a -1.2 leverage score. He is easily playable at that mark, however. He is projected for 22.8 fantasy points in the median and he has a 10.9% boom score probability. With only 16.9% of the field including him in lineups, and far higher numbers on most of the other options who will see significant minutes in the most heavily totaled game of the day, it makes sense to draw a few extra shares of Green on this slate. Green ranks 12th overall by optimal lineup appearance rate among guards at either spot, but he is one of only five that also come at positive leverage, landing third highest on that list.

On DraftKings, Green is the 13th most frequently optimal player on the slate coming up with a 20.7% mark in the category. Green is a noticeable step down, falling five points off the pace of the option immediately ahead of him, Mike Conley, who comes in at a 25.6% clip. There is a plateau of similar value ahead of Conley, sixth-ranked Harrison Barnes has just a 28.4% optimal lineup appearance rate. The drop in probability to Green is made up for in a lack of attention, only 18.4% of the field is looking to him for value, creating a 2.3 leverage score that is easily playable for $5,000 at either guard position. Green is projected for a 24.5-point median score and he has a 14.6% boom score probability on the site, both fair but not outstanding numbers at his salary.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.