NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A gentle Saturday evening slate of daily fantasy basketball has us parsing through just five games, but we have a number of interesting options to which we can turn for some differentiation in NBA DFS lineups. There are a few question marks that could impact overall ownership distribution by the time we hit lock, but the Awesemo team will be on top of things with two hours of shows leading to the start of tournaments this evening. With just five games on the slate, this article will focus on finding some leverage among the top plays. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Deni Avdija — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $4,800 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $3,800 — SF

With Davis Bertans due to miss Saturday’s game, Avdija appears to have some extra appeal on the boom/bust board. While the Wizards’ production and usage slants heavily toward the top-end players, there is enough for an inexpensive Avdija to make his needed value, at least on one site, given the 33.3 minute projection. Avdija puts up just 0.68 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, but that is part of why is so inexpensive. Given the projected run, he should have enough room to get where we need him, despite a relatively healthy lineup of high-usage teammates.

Avdija is largely of the board as anything other than a dart throw mix-in option on DraftKings. He has just a 7.4% optimal lineup appearance rate and a 5.4% boom score probability at a much higher price against a lower cap. Avdija slots into both forward spots and will be positively leveraged at a solid 5.6 mark, but his upside is capped by the expense of rostering him.

On the blue site, Avdija is far more interesting. His $3,800 price tag has appeal for the opportunities it creates at other spots, and Avdija lands 17th overall with a 17.6% optimal lineup appearance rate. That mark stands fifth among players with more than a 3.0 leverage score, ranking Avdija among elite company and making him an excellent tournament option given the 4.8 leverage score and broad range of outcomes. Avdija has a 24.6% boom score probability on the slate, there is plenty of room for upside.

Jerami Grant — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $6,500 — PF | FanDuel — $7,100 — PF

Grant has had a nice year for the Pistons, he averages 1.04 fantasy points per minute across all situations for the season while leading the team in both usage and scoring. The forward sees a 27.6% usage rate across all situations, averaging 22.2 real life points per game. Without the specific set of teammates that will be out tonight, Grant remains at similar usage and production, with the fantasy points per minute jumping to 1.07.

Grant is among the slate leaders by optimal lineup appearance rate on DraftKings, where he costs just $6,500 and has slightly positive leverage with only 25.4% of the field getting to him. There is room to roster Grant well beyond the field, considering the lack of overall options on a five-game slate. The forward has a 20.7% boom score probability with reliable upside.

On the FanDuel slate, Grant lands with just a 21.1% optimal lineup appearance rate and a -2.9 leverage score. While this is perfectly playable, it lacks the appeal that the forward provides on the other side of the industry. Grant has a 20.3% boom score probability and a fine 34.9 raw fantasy point projection, but would be a better play if the public pivots in the later part of the day.

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Mason Plumlee — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $4,900 — C | FanDuel — $5,100 — C

The Pistons remain interesting in the middle, given their matchup with the Wizards in what should be a high octane contest. Plumlee, of course, needs to see time on the court to be reliable and productive. The big man has averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, but the Pistons have some development work going on in the frontcourt, with Plumlee’s potential minutes in jeopardy. Plumlee has averaged just 23.6 minutes per game over the team’s 10 most recent contests, playing in just seven of those games. Still, assuming the viability of Awesemo’s 25.4 minute projection, and with numerous teammates still out of the lineup, there is upside for an unpopular Plumlee.

On the FanDuel slate, Plumlee lands in the optimal lineup in 13.8% of simulations, ranking him third among eligible center plays. He has a 33.1% boom score probability against his $5,100 salary, which shows nice room for upside, while the 6.0 leverage score tells us the public has not spotted that potential yet. Plumlee is appealing and easy to roster in excess of the field at just a 7.8% projected public ownership share.

On the DraftKings slate, the center comes up in the optimal lineup in 21.9% of simulations, eighth overall on the slate with his $4,900 salary. Plumlee has a 26.6% boom score probability, showing off strong upside as the second-highest ranked player in that category, from among the top-ranked eight by optimal lineup. Plumlee will be rostered by only 11.4% of the public, leaving an excellent 10.5 leverage score that we should be excited to roster, assuming we get no news about minutes limitations or Plumlee sitting out.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.