NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The penultimate weekend of the NBA DFS regular season features a seven-game slate with at one potentially super-high-octane matchup for daily fantasy basketball point-scoring. The Wizards vs. Pacers game has a massive 248.5 total tonight, outpacing the two runners up by a whopping 16 points. Those two games have reasonably high totals as well, at 232.5, but the expected production from the Wizards and Pacers means our lineups are highly likely to feature pieces from that game. Finding the parts to fit in around the edges of that contest is where tools like the Boom/Bust and Awesemo’s slate simulations are helpful for optimal lineup constructions. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall DFS basketball picks, which also provide some leverage to the field. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

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This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jerami Grant — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $6,900 — PF | FanDuel — $6,100 — PF

The Pistons are expected to have their best player back on the floor tonight, with Jerami Grant returning after missing the last five games. For the season, Grant has led the way for Detroit, with both a 27.8% usage rate and a 22.5 points-per-game scoring average. Grant adds just a 16.6% assist rate and a 15.3% rebounding share for the team for the season, making his production largely scoring based, but he has come through as an NBA DFS option, putting up 1.04 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and – assuming he plays – he seems under-owned and underpriced on both sites tonight.

On the FanDuel slate, Grant has a 19.9% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks him 11th overall at any position and second among power forwards. He has a 31.1% boom score probability for the $6,100 salary at power forward, making him one of the top upside options on the board and a top two at the position. Grant has an outstanding 8.9 leverage score early. When his status is confirmed, his public exposure could expand, but it is unlikely he is rendered over-owned, and he seems like a strong target for GPP lineups.

On DraftKings, Grant is priced at $6,900 as a power forward, and he carries a similar 8.4 leverage score, meaning the public is behind the play. Part of that can again be attributed to injury status, but the public will likely remain behind the curve even after Grant is confirmed. He has a 10.2% optimal lineup appearance rate on the site while hauling in an 11.1% boom-score probability. Grant is more a mid-range option with extremely appealing leverage on this slate as of the late afternoon, but he is an interesting piece to move around the chessboard of the slate.

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Russell Westbrook & Bradley Beal — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $11,100 — PG & $9,600 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $12,000 — PG & $9,000 — SG

Representing 62.6% of the Wizards’ usage and 52.9 real points per game, there is significant upside in the Wizards dual-threat backcourt on most slates. In by far the highest implied total game of the day, there appears to be room for both to meet their significant ceilings, particularly with no teammates of note to get in their way. The duo also kicks in an 81.2% assist share, largely comprised of Westbrook’s outstanding 58.4% mark. They add a 48.2% rebounding rate, again largely Westbrook at his 33.9% mark. The pair are expensive, but they are not dispossessed of upside on either site.

On DraftKings, Beal comes in with a 12.9% boom score probability and has multi-position eligibility between guard and forward, meaning we can shuffle him between five positions in our lineup constructions. Westbrook plays just one position and is pricey at $11,100 but has a massive 35.8% boom score probability and a 31.1% optimal lineup appearance rate. He will be slightly negatively leveraged, coming in with a -3.7, but there is enough upside to push beyond the field for the point guard. Beal is less frequently optimal at just a 12.7% rate, despite the positional flexibility, though he will be at a 1.5 leverage score that has more appeal. Both Wizards players should be given strong consideration on the slate.

On FanDuel, Westbrook has a 23.0% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks seventh overall, trailing Beal’s sixth-place 25.2% rate. The guards are both projected to be under-owned. Beal has a 3.4 leverage score while his teammate lands at a 2.0, meaning the field will be well behind their 29.6% and 25.5% respective boom score probabilities. These are two of the best options at the guard spots, though the top-end of the FanDuel board is largely comprised of players at both guard positions today. Given the positive leverage, both Wizards stand out on the blue site.

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Joe Ingles — Utah Jazz

DraftKings — $6,900 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $6,400 — SF

The Jazz see upside on tonight’s slate for the absence of several key rotation pieces once again. Jordan Clarkson ranks higher on the board than Ingles does, but the teammates are within range of one another on both sites, and both deserve consideration. Ingles is likely getting less buzz, and he will be at around half the overall ownership of his teammate, making him the more interesting GPP play. The forward is a highly productive option that is priced appropriately for his 0.89 fantasy point per minute rate, but perhaps not for the opportunity he will see tonight. Since the trade deadline, with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley sitting, Ingles has produced a 0.98 per-minute rate and a robust 35.0% assist share that leads the team.

On DraftKings, Ingles ranks ninth overall with a 16.2% optimal lineup appearance rate, and he has the best leverage score among the top-10 players in the category, coming in at a 6.0. Ingles costs $6,900 on the site, but he provides the five-spot utility that we gain from his eligibility at shooting guard and small forward. Ingles is an excellent option, and he has a 13.5% boom-score probability, which tells us there is some upside to be chased while the public trails the play.

On FanDuel, Ingles ranks 19th overall with a 15.3% optimal lineup appearance rate. That is good enough to rank Ingles fourth among small forwards on a site where we need to select two, and he is the only positively leveraged option in that group. With Danuel House and a highly overexposed Bojan Bogdanovic from this same lineup trailing him as the next-best options, Ingles has strong appeal as a go-to at less than 10% raw public ownership. Leveraging the forward’s 21.9% boom-score probability seems like a strong option for NBA DFS optimal lineup constructions today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.