NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy

NBA DFS action on Sunday, Jan. 24, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a five-game main slate. Before you lock in your lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Aaron Gordon, Bradley Beal, Clint Capela and more.

Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS HOME PAGE for more great written content, including the FREE Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.

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Awesemo’s Key NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks | Jan. 24

Aaron Gordon: DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $7,800, Yahoo $31

Update: Aaron Gordon ruled out.

~~Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 40.46 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 39.03~~

~~Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 23.8% | FanDuel 24.9% | Yahoo 19.2%~~

Markelle Fultz (knee) was lost for the season on Jan. 6, and Michael Carter-Williams (foot) has missed that same stretch as well. This has led to the team leaning on rookie Cole Anthony, Aaron Gordon and even Nikola Vucevic to facilitate the offense. Evan Fournier has played the last two games after missing three weeks with back spasms, so that gives the Magic another capable, though non-traditional ball handler.

Over the last seven games, Gordon has actually led the team with 7.8 assists per game, followed by Vucevic (3.9) and Anthony (3.4). DraftKings has even given Gordon multi-position eligibility as a PG/SF. Tonight’s matchup with Charlotte is a good one for the Magic, as the Hornets are mediocre on defense. Gordon is favorably priced across the board, making him an excellent starting point for our rosters.

Clint Capela: DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $10,000, Yahoo $38

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 41.09 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 41.06

Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 13.5% | FanDuel 4.4% | Yahoo 21.4%

It will be fun to see how the Bucks look to handle Clint Capela tonight. The mobile big man should have no issues guarding Brook Lopez, and on offense Milwaukee is just not equipped to deal with him in the paint. Capela is second in the league with 14.5 rebounds per game, and he has six straight double-doubles, including a rare points/rebounds/blocks triple-double on Friday against Minnesota. During this stretch he is averaging 33.1 minutes with 19.3 points, 16.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists and 4.8 combined blocks/steals. FanDuel is ahead of the pricing curve, but this should in turn suppress Capela’s popularity as gamers look for discounted alternatives. On DraftKings and Yahoo, Capela is absolutely a core play.

Julius Randle: DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $9,100, Yahoo $42

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 43.16 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 40.74

Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 14.2% | FanDuel 22.3% | Yahoo 20%

Until he is appropriately priced, Julius Randle is going to continue to be a featured play in this article series. Depending on your site of choice, he is 15-20% underpriced based on his recent performance. He has topped 40 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games. He has notched a double-double in nine of these outing. In this stretch he is also contributing 5.6 assists and was one assist shy of a triple-double on two separate occasions. The only knock against him is that he doesn’t block shots, with only three on the year.

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Good Value

Bradley Beal: DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $10,300, Yahoo $47

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.83 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 48.94

Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 14.0% | FanDuel 22.7% | Yahoo 22.6%

Tonight will mark the Wizards’ first game since Jan. 11. Between a COVID-19 outbreak and injuries, Washington was unable to field eight active players. There were initially five players who tested positive for COVID-19, which impacted the rest of the squad with contact tracing. Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura, Moritz Wagner, Drew Eubanks, Ish Smith and Troy Brown all remain in the health-and-safety protocol, though that is with today’s tests pending.

Thomas Bryant (knee) is out for the season, Russell Westbrook (quad) is unlikely to play, and Raul Neto is also dealing with a groin injury. Washington has also signed Alex Len and Jordan Bell in an effort to have enough players available to resume games.

With the HIPAA legislation providing privacy for sensitive health information, unless players allow for their status to be announced, there is some unknown. It seems that Bradley Beal was not one of the impacted players, which will put him in line for mega fantasy opportunities tonight if this game actually tips off. Jerome Robinson, Garrison Mathews, Robin Lopez and anyone else who is starting should be fine discount dandies Sunday night.

Damian Lillard: DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $9,700, Yahoo $45

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.84 (slate high) | Yahoo and FanDuel: 52.72 (slate high)

Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 28.8% | FanDuel 45.5% | Yahoo 43.2%

This is a unique slate heavily influenced by the pandemic. The ancillary players starting for the Wizards will be giving us two or even three extremely discounted options. On the other side of that game, all of the Spurs are underpriced considering they will be going against a patchwork team that is the second-worst defensive team, allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions this year. That means we are going to have the luxury of choosing between several top-shelf options with ease.

On Yahoo Damian Lillard should be a $50 player when we remember that C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are both out for the foreseeable future. Utilizing NBA WOWY, we can see that Lillard gets a 10% increase in his fantasy points per minute over his baseline when both McCollum and Nurkic are off the court. Lillard is third in the league with 28.1 points per game, and he is 11th with 6.7 assists. Without his compadres, his usage rate climbs to the mid-30s, which would land him in the top three.

Risky Value

Alec Burks: DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $5,400, Yahoo $18

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 26.86 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 26.23

Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 20.9% | FanDuel 11.4% | Yahoo 16.2%

After missing just over three weeks with an ankle injury, Alec Burks has come off the bench with 27 and 31 minutes the last two games. I think Burks is a fine player, and he should perform well under new coach Tom Thibodeau. Burks is relatively scoring dependent for his fantasy production. When his shot isn’t falling, he is not going to compensate with peripheral statistics on most nights. There are enough extreme punt options from the Wizards – Spurs game that we can let other gamers assume the risk of a lackluster performance from Burks tonight.

Fortunately, at Awesemo we have a Boom vs. Bust tool that allows daily fantasy basketball players to see what a player’s likelihood is of appearing in the optimal NBA DFS lineup compared against their ownership. Burks has a 14.7% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup but is getting 11.4% ownership on FanDuel. This gives him a 3.4 leverage score. That score shows that he is essentially appropriately represented in tournaments. However, he also has a 40.1% chance of busting and coming in with less than 5x his FanDuel salary in fantasy points. There is only a 14.6% chance of a boom performance of 5x + 10, or 37.0 FanDuel points. For perspective, he has 37-plus fantasy points in 20 of his last 135 regular season games.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

Patty Mills: SAS vs. WAS – $11
Marcus Morris: LAC vs. OKC – $10
Derrick Jones : POR vs NYK – $10

SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks

Enes Kanter: POR vs. NYK- 1.85x multiplier
Dejounte Murray: SAS vs. WAS – 1.45x multiplier
Damian Lillard: POR vs. NYK – 1.20x multiplier

Final Thoughts on the Sunday, Jan. 24 NBA DFS Slate

Everything will hinge on the Wizards having enough players to avoid yet another cancelled game. If it is postponed, the analysis above still holds, though we will have to look elsewhere for our value plays.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].