Happy hump day, everybody. Following the postponement of the Suns – Hawks, we have seven NBA games on tap tonight, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades + Ownership | Jan. 13
Point Guard: De’Aaron Fox
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: C
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B
Fox is extremely cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and we need to take advantage of the discount before it’s gone. His price has been dropping because the point guard was dealing with a hamstring injury last week that affected his numbers in two straight games, but Fox showed no signs of an ailment his last time out. On Monday night Fox logged 38 minutes and recorded 43.25 DraftKings points in a win over the Pacers. It was great to see Fox get back to his normal workload after being limited in back-to-back contests. With no games last night or tomorrow, he should receive 35-40 minutes tonight against the Blazers.
Both of these clubs rank inside the top eight in pace and in the bottom eight in defensive efficiency this season, making this without question the top game of the night to target. This tilt currently possesses over/under game total of 236.5 points, which is the largest total on the slate by a notable 10 points. Fox is scoring 43.9 DraftKings points per game in game totals of 230 points or more this season, and he won’t be this cheap on either FanDuel or DraftKings the next time he’s in action.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 14.6% FanDuel 25.7%
Power Forward: Kevin Durant
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B
Kyrie Irving (personal/health protocols) will miss his fifth straight contest tonight, keeping Durant in must-play territory. With the All-Star point guard away from the team last night, Durant produced a season-high 64.75 DraftKings points in the win over the Nuggets. He was one rebound away from his first triple-double of the season, and he is now generating 65.25 DraftKings points per game in these past two without Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie (out, knee).
In all the time he has played sans these two Brooklyn guards this season, Durant is averaging a 36.4% usage rate and a 33.9% assist percentage, which is a massive 9.2% increase from his season average. This all results in a tremendous 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight will be the first time Durant has played in the second game of a back-to-back in nearly two years, but I am not expecting him to be limited in anyway, and our good friends in Vegas tend to agree. As of Wednesday afternoon, the 32-year-old’s Vegas prop line is projecting him for 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists. This is already 50 fantasy points before defensive stats, and Durant is a free square on DraftKings at a laughable price of $9,400.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 25.8% FanDuel 20.3%
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Point Guard: LaMelo Ball
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B
Ball has continued to impress, and his price tag has yet to fully adjust on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The front runner for rookie of the year has supplied 48.7 DraftKings points per game across his last three and has scored at least 37 DraftKings points in six of his past eight. The 19-year-old has collected double-digit rebounds in three consecutive contests, and he is leading the Hornets with a 35.5% assist percentage this season.
All in all, Ball is producing 1.4 DraftKings points per minute and will be facing a Mavericks team that is missing five key players due to the NBA’s COVID-19 policies. They should be vulnerable defensively, and this game’s total currently sits at 220.5 points. Ball is a double-double threat tonight, and he should have no issues exceeding 5x value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 15.5% FanDuel 15.7%
Power Forward: James Johnson
DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A
FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) will make his anticipated season debut tonight, but he will be joining a shorthanded Mavericks team. Due to the NBA’s new health policies, all of Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell have been confirmed out for Wednesday’s game against the Hornets. This leaves Dallas very thin up front, especially with Porzingis not expected to handle a full workload in his first action of the season.
With the All-Star forward out this past Saturday but Powell and Kleber active, Johnson played a season-high 26 minutes off the bench, helping him to season-best 27 DraftKings points against the Magic. He should find himself in the 30-minute range again tonight against a Hornets’ defense that is giving up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing power forwards. The 33-year-old is providing 0.94 DraftKings points per minute so far in 2020-21 and is contributing 28.6 DraftKings points per game in the last 10 he has logged at least 25 minutes. Per Awesemo’s projections, Johnson is a top-10 point-per-dollar value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 19.6% FanDuel 19.9%
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