After multiple series going to Game 7, we have now fully moved onto the second round of the playoffs. Over the next couple says, we have some new matchups, beginning today with the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. It brings with it some needed variety, especially for a two-game NBA DFS slate.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Thursday, Sept. 3.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Boom Candidates
Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers: DraftKings: C, $9,500, 27.6% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,800, 33.0% Boom
Jokic is coming off a solid game, where he put up 23 shots. We saw this high usage (33.4%) because Jamal Murray got banged up last game. Not only is he not 100% today, the Clippers will likely look to shut him down first, especially if Patrick Beverley is back in the lineup. This means Denver will rely on Jokic heavily yet again, giving him high upside in Game 1.
Kyle Lowry vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PG, $7,500, 19.6% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $7,800, 22.1% Boom
Unlike another Raptors player that will show up in the next section, Lowry has been filling up the stat sheet. He has averaged 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 2.5 steals through these first two games. Lowry has averaged just 16.5 points, so there’s plenty of room for upside as a scorer today, making him an obvious boom candidate.
Paul George vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: SF, $8,200, 17.8% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,700, 34.7% Boom
George started to play a little bit better towards the end of last series, and now he gets a better matchup today. Fresh off a long seven-game series, the Nuggets have to defend the Clippers. I wouldn’t trust Denver to defend them with a month of prep time, much less a quick turnaround like this. If George is shooting someone efficiently, he should have a great day.
NBA DFS Bust Candidates
Lou Williams vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: PG/SF, $x, x% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $x, x% Bust
Williams has posted back-to-back terrible games. We have seen his minutes come down, and that’s because LA needed more defense against Dallas to close out that series. Today, they need defense yet again, especially facing Murray. Beverley is likely back, so he should see plenty of time, and Williams will likely only see a big workload if the Clippers are chasing points.
Norman Powell vs. Celtics: DraftKings: SG/SF, $4,600, 66.4% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $4,700, 58.4% Bust
Powell has been terrible through two games this series. Not only has his scoring been down, he has added one rebound and one assist total through two games. A scoring-dependent player who struggles to score is not a player to look to.
Jamal Murray vs. Clippers: DraftKings: PG/SG, $9,300, 51.0% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $9,000, 34.3% Bust
After a hard shot from Joe Ingles last game, Murray looked to re-injure his hamstring. If he is not 100%, he is going to have a tough time being explosive enough to hit value at this price. Murray is also no longer facing the Jazz. Instead, he faces a much tougher Clippers defense that will key on Murray.
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