We have two games today that have an even record in their series. In other words, we have teams that match up well with each other, which could create really competitive games. This is great news for us NBA DFS players as we set our lineups on this Labor Day and enjoy some great basketball.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Monday, Sept. 7.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Fred VanVleet vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PG/SG, $7,800, 21.1% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,900, 27.7% Boom
VanVleet has put together four pretty good games this series, but he has yet to truly explode for NBA DFS. The potential is certainly there, as he has averaged 21 shot attempts over the past three games. He is racking up the assists as well, averaging 6.3 over that same span. If he shoots a little more efficiently, we could see a big performance from the Toronto guard.
Paul George vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: SG/SF, $8,300, 20.2% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,800, 37.5% Boom
George again wasn’t great last game, but he did do enough to hit value. If he knocks in a couple shots early on and grows his confidence, George will have a terrific game. There shouldn’t be anyone on Denver that can stop him, so the only hurdle he has to clear is himself. Yes, this is a tall one, but maybe he will step up after a loss.
Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers: DraftKings: C, $9,700, 18.9% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,400, 33.2% Boom
Jokic showed up in Game 2, scoring 26 points and grabbing a whopping 18 rebounds. There isn’t anyone on the Clippers that can truly match up with him one-on-one, so the opportunity is there for Jokic to have another booming performance. The Clippers may look to cancel out Jamal Murray first, as he is the largest scoring risk. While that strategy would likely hurt the Nuggets’ chances to win, Jokic should be able to thrive in the increased opportunity.
Bust Candidates
Monte Morris vs. Clippers: DraftKings: PG, $3,900, 39.5% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,600, 92.6% Bust
Morris has come off the bench the past two games due to Gary Harris re-joining the starting lineup. As a result, Morris has seen his floor time drop under 20 minutes. Even though he’s a cheaper option on the slate today, he doesn’t have enough minutes to hit value. He is offering very little outside of scoring.
Lou Williams vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: PG/SG, $5,800, 80.6% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $5,100, 55.3% Bust
The Clippers found themselves down last game, so Williams’ offensive talents were needed more. He did enough to hit value. If the odds are correct today, the Clippers should bounce back in a big way. Williams isn’t as active when the Clippers have a lead since they would rather have a defensive guard in the game and get their offense elsewhere.
Montrezl Harrell vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: C, $4,500, 65.1% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,200, 66.7% Bust
If you wan’t to play one of these Clippers bench players, go ahead, but I wouldn’t put Harrell and Williams in the same lineup. Should Williams have a poor game for the reason I stated above, he would share the floor less with Harrell, which is good. Still, Harrell is getting fewer than 20 minutes of floor time, giving him a high potential to bust.
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