We have both No. 1 seeds playing again today after they found wins on Sunday. However, we have some massive injury news with the reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. At the time of writing, he is listed as questionable after leaving Game 4 early. Whether he is in or out will likely greatly impact your lineup construction, so keep your eye on the news throughout the day in order to build the best possible NBA DFS lineup.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Tuesday, Sept. 8.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Boom Candidates
Khris Middleton vs. Heat: DraftKings: SF, $8,600, 27.9% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $8,000, 45.2% Boom
Whether Giannis is out or limited, we saw last game how much that affects Middleton. He put up a terrific performance in Game 4, scoring 36 points with eight rebounds and eight assists. Middleton operated with a 31.6% usage, and it would be surprising if he wasn’t over 30% again today. Priced as a tier below the top stars, but having just as much potential, Middleton is among the best boom plays today.
LeBron James vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG/SF, $11,200, 31.4% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $11,100, 39.2% Boom
James came through as we predicted in Game 2, and he has just as much potential again today. He is a triple-double candidate every time he steps on the floor in the playoffs, and there isn’t anyone on Houston that can stop LeBron. He should keep his foot on the gas today as he attempts to give the Lakers the lead in the series. LeBron doesn’t want to fall behind in the series again.
Jimmy Butler vs. Bucks: DraftKings: SG/SF, $8,500, 18.4% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $8,300, 36.1% Boom
After losing last game, Butler will likely come out aggressive and look to close out the series. If Giannis is out, that also helps Butler. To start, no Giannis on the floor makes the Bucks were defensively for obvious reasons. He was the Defensive Player of the Year, after all. Also, Middleton will likely need to do most of everything for the Bucks’ offense again, which cold lead to him taking more breaks on defense, making it even easier on Butler to score.
NBA DFS Bust Candidates
Kyle Kuzma vs. Rockets: DraftKings: SF/PF, $4,800, 78.4% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $4,600, 65.1% Bust
Kuzma put up much better stats last game, but that’s only because he converted on six of his seven shots. In fact, he played less with just 21 minutes of floor time. At this price, he is such a high candidate to bust. Kuzma is not playing well enough to have any real trust in him tonight.
Eric Gordon vs. Lakers: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,900, 77.9% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,400, 57.8% Bust
With both James Harden and Russell Westbrook active, Gordon is always a risk to bust. When Westbrook was out, Gordon was able to be the go-to player when Harden was off the floor. Now the Rockets will make sure one of their stars are out there all the time, which means Gordon’s usage takes a big hit. If he doesn’t continue to make half of his shots, Gordon will likely bust.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Heat: DraftKings: PF, $11,100, 100% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $10,600, 99.7% Bust
Obviously, Giannis being ruled out makes this irrelevant. However, even if the reigning MVP is active, he is still a bust candidate. Giannis will be hobbled if he is out there, and he is a player that relies almost exclusively on his athleticism.
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