The NBA returned to action yesterday and gave us some really exciting basketball for both an NBA DFS perspective and for the casual viewer. Today, we have an interesting slate of games. We have two first-round matchups that we are very used to now, while the Round 2 matchup of Boston – Toronto also begins today. Make sure to do your research for that game, as that could be the one where many of the NBA DFS-winning lineups have exposure to.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Sunday, Aug. 30.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Luka Doncic vs. Clippers: DraftKings: PG/SF, $11,200, 43.5% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $11,400, 43.4% Boom
Dallas’ fate rests on Doncic’s shoulders. The last time the Mavericks felt like their backs were up against the wall was when Doncic nearly put up 100 NBA DFS points. With no Kristaps Porzingis tonight, the young star will need to pull some tricks out of his hat yet again. Clearly, he is capable of doing just that, and he has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Nikola Jokic vs. Jazz: DraftKings: C, $9,500, 36.6% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,300, 49.8% Boom
Jokic has been steady for the Nuggets. He has put up at least 28 points in all but one game this series. He has also averaged 7.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Jokic can fill up the stat sheet in a hurry, and he will need to with Denver facing possible elimination tonight.
Paul George vs. Mavericks: DraftKings: SF, $8,300, 24.4% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,800, 42.6% Boom
We get George as essentially the same salary as last game, but he is finally coming off a good shooting performance. George shot 12-of-18 and had a 38.9% usage rate in just 25 minutes last game. It remains to be seen if he can do this consistently, but finally seeing the ball go in must have done wonders for his confidence.
Marcus Morris vs Mavericks: DraftKings: SF/PF, $5,700, 78.4% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $5,300, 58.5% Bust
In last game’s blowout, the Clippers were able to play Montrezl Harrell 23 minutes, which is the most he has seen in the bubble. His minutes have been monitored as he gets back into game shape. However, he played really well, putting up a 19-11 double-double. If he is ready for more minutes, it could lead to reduced work for Morris, which he cannot afford at his current price.
Michael Porter Jr. vs Jazz: DraftKings: SF/PF, $5,500, 69.5% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $5,700, 62.5% Bust
The Nuggets cannot afford to play Porter too many minutes right now since he is such a liability on defense. He played under 25 minutes in back-to-back games before seeing 34 minutes of floor time last game. Still, he did not get the start, and he has struggled with his offense off the bench. If the Nuggets find themselves with a lead, expect to see Porter on the bench more often than not, with them playing Jerami Grant for his defense.
Landry Shamet vs Mavericks: DraftKings: PG/SF, $3,700, 98.8% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $4,200, 99.4% Bust
Shamet has been a popular salary saver for the past couple games, as he has started in place of Patrick Beverley. Unfortunately, this may come to an end today, with Beverley looking as though he can return this afternoon. Shamet needs the minutes to be viable.
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