We have a six-game NBA DFS slate yet again today, but both sites are including them all in the main slate today. This means that contests will be locking early on DraftKings again, so keep that in mind when you are setting your lineups.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Monday, August 3.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Malcolm Brogdon vs. Magic: DraftKings: PG, $5,400, 51.3% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $6,200, 39.5% Boom
While the matchup isn’t amazing, Brogdon’s price is. He returned from injury yesterday and put up 20 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Since Brogdon’s injury was with his neck, there’s no sign on him being limited at all today like a lower body injury likely would do. The Pacers guard put up a 19/5/8 line the last time he faced Orlando.
Nikola Vucevic vs. Pacers: DraftKings: C, $7,800, 34.4% Boom | FanDuel: C, $7,800, 46.1% Boom
Myles Turner struggles against the traditional big men that will go at him in the paint. Vucevic will do just that. Vucevic should be active today and dominate the paint as he did in his previous matchup with the Pacers. The Magic center finished with 18 points, 17 rebounds and two blocks last time out, which would be enough for a boom today.
Russell Westbrook vs. Blazers: DraftKings: PG, $9,400, 30.6% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $9,600, 38.9% Boom
The beef between Westbrook and Damian Lillard is well documented, and it brings the best out of both guards. In three games this season, Westbrook is averaging 32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.3 assists against the Blazers. If he maintains this average today, Westbrook will easily boom today, making him one of the best plays on the slate.
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Aaron Holiday vs Magic: DraftKings: PG/SG, $5,100, 91.3% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,400, 69.8% Bust
Holiday has thrived in his increased role in the bubble. This his led to his price increasing at the wrong time. Brogdon and Victor Oladipo are both expected to play today, pushing Holiday to the bench and making him overpriced on both NBA DFS sites, but especially on DraftKings.
Reggie Jackson vs Suns: DraftKings: PG, $4,300, 61.5% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,900, 84.0% Bust
While Jackson played well last time out, he came off the bench and was limited to 20 minutes. It was Patrick Beverley who again got the starting nod, and his minutes should continue to increase slowly. Lou Williams as also completed his quarantine and is questionable for tonight. If he plays, the minutes he gets should mostly come directly from Jackson, unfortunately.
Kristaps Porzingis vs Team: DraftKings: C, $9,000, 71.5% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $9,700, 67.7% Bust
Porzingis has put up back-to-back 30-point performances. However, he faces a matchup today that has not been kind to him this season. In two games against the Kings this year, Porzingis has averaged 20 points and 10.5 rebounds in 35 minutes. This isn’t enough at his increased price in NBA DFS.
Related NBA DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NBA DFS Strategy Show
- NBA DFS Building Blocks: Values, Studs & Fades | Aug. 4
- NBA DFS Restart Special
- DFS Review: Studying Five- and Six-Game Slates
- NBA Rankings from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- NBA DFS Projections from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s NBA Ownership Projections
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