We have a five-game slate with an early start for NBA DFS today. With some teams opting to hold players out or limit them in the game, there is an added level of uncertainty for NBA DFS picks now. This creates a chaotic slate, so make sure you have your eyes on any possible news — we have you covered with the Awesemo NBA Live Blog.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Saturday, Aug. 8.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Bam Adebayo vs. Suns: DraftKings: C, $7,400, 51.8% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $7,600, 59.5% Boom
It makes sense to feel hesitant on Bam Adebayo, after he failed us last time out. However, he’s seen a slight drop in salary and enters this slate as the top “boom” play on both sites. In his only other meeting with the Suns this season, Bam scored 15 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and dished six assists. He also totaled five steals, though that could be tough to replicate. Jimmy Butler is out again for Miami, so Bam will be asked to step up, especially considering they go against Deandre Ayton and the Suns.
Paul George vs. Blazers: DraftKings: SF, $8,000, 45.7% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,700, 57.6% Boom
Whether he has C.J. McCollum or Carmelo Anthony on him, this is going to be a mismatch for Paul George. He should be able to do whatever he wants, in a game that is supposed to be competitive. We will also be asked to shoulder the offensive load, with Kawhi Leonard out today. The Blazers are hot and the Clippers don’t want them to make the postseason because of it. We start our day with this really fun game.
George carries top tier upside today, but has a modest price. He is a solid play for any kind of build.
Luka Doncic vs. Bucks: DraftKings: PG/SF, $11,000, 39.4% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $10,400, 52.6% Boom
Luka Doncic really let us down last game. He scored 29 points, but he only grabbed three rebounds and dished six assists. This was an outlier performance, as those numbers are always much higher. This performance did, however, lower Luka’s salary a little, making him an even better play today. We don’t know how long the Bucks’ starters will play, considering this is a Western Conference opponent, but it shouldn’t much matter.
Related NBA DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NBA DFS Strategy Show + NBA DFS Picks
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- DFS Review: Studying Five- and Six-Game Slates
- NBA Rankings from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- NBA DFS Projections from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s NBA Ownership Projections
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Joe Ingles vs Nuggets: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,600, 75.2% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $4,900, 49.4% Bust
Joe Ingles has had just one good game in the bubble, busting in his other three outings, at his current price. While he is getting plenty of playing time, he is putting up few shots overall, with Donovan Mitchell leading the way and Mike Conley playing more aggressive on offense. Ingles gets lost on the floor most of the time.
T.J. Warren vs Lakers: DraftKings: SF/PF, $8,200, 70.0% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $7,800, 43.0% Bust
T.J. Warren was the hottest player in the bubble, before shooting 32.5 percent last game, being held to 16 points. He still put up a double-double. However, it was a bust, given how high his salary has risen. His NBA DFS salary has stayed pretty steady, despite the bust last game. Now, he will have the tough task of facing Anthony Davis. Not only is Davis strong on the defensive end, Warren will be asked to expend energy trying to stop Davis from scoring. He would need a great game to hit value, which raises his bust potential.
Gary Trent Jr. vs Clippers: DraftKings: SG/SF, $4,800, 70.5% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $4,700, 61.0% Bust
Gary Trent Jr. has been the hottest 3-point shooter in the bubble, but he is bound to struggle to find his shot some game. Facing a strong defensive team like the Clippers today, it would make sense that he busts. Trent has also seen his salary rise to the level where he will likely need to do more than just score points to hit value, and he offers little to fill the box score, aside from 3-point shots.
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