With his back up against the wall, Jimmy Butler made it happen yet again, lifting the Miami Heat to a Game 5 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. It took heavy minutes from Heat players to get it done, but it gives us another NBA DFS slate to play today in the middle of all of the NFL action.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Sunday, Oct. 11.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
*Salaries for DraftKings are using the captain’s salaries, which affects boom/bust probabilities, relative to past articles.
LeBron James vs. Heat: DraftKings: $18,900, 0.0% Boom | FanDuel: $16,000, 1.4% Boom
Despite coming up short, James came to play in Game 5. He was three assists shy of a triple-double. LeBron also put up 21 shots, scoring 40 points. He will likely put less trust in his teammates tonight, looking to seal the series himself.
Jimmy Butler vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $00, 1% Boom | FanDuel: $15,000, 1.1% Boom
Butler continues to perform when he is counted out. He played 47 minutes last game and could barely walk afterwards, but Butler should be good to go for another “win or go home” matchup. Butler has put up a 35-point triple-double in each of the last two games where it was a must-win for Miami.
Anthony Davis vs. Heat: DraftKings: $00, 1% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.9% Boom
Following the previous two, there is nobody else in this game that has a ceiling close to Davis’. He finished last game with a 28-point double-double, which is good, but he again took just 15 shots. If Davis can attempt over 20 again, he could be the top NBA DFS play in the game.
Kelly Olynyk vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $3,900, 99.8% Bust | FanDuel: $8,000, 100% Bust
After playing over 30 minutes twice this series, Olynyk was completely out of the rotation last game. Miami played just seven players, and Olynyk was not one of them. There is no reason to play him in NBA DFS today.
Andre Iguodala vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $00, 9% Bust | FanDuel: $7,500, 100% Bust
Iguodala was one of the seven Heat players to see the floor, but he did not do much with his 20 minutes. Iguodala attempted just two shots and missed them both. Since he will be playing alongside mostly starters, his usage won’t be at a point where he is likely to return NBA DFS value.
Danny Green vs. Heat: DraftKings: $00, 9% Bust | FanDuel: $8,500, 100% Bust
LeBron likes to call out his teammates when he loses games in the Finals, whether it’s warranted or not. Last game, it was Green, which is somewhat warranted, despite him having the best plus/minus on the team. Still, this does not translate into NBA DFS points, unfortunately. I don’t think LeBron will actively want to look Green’s way tonight, so there isn’t a high probability he has a good game.
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