NBA playoff action is underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Wednesday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for Aug. 26
NBA DFS Value Pick: Gary Trent Jr.
DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $4,000, Yahoo $10
Damian Lillard is out for tonight with a strained knee and likely won’t play again this season. With Portland down 3-1 in the series and 13.5-points underdogs tonight, the final result is all but a formality. Even with Lillard, the Blazers are getting throttled by the Lakers in this series. Outside of Game 1 where the Lakers missed a ton of open looks, Los Angeles won games by an average of 17 points.
With Lillard out, I expect Trent to draw into the starting lineup. It’s a role he took on earlier in the season when Lillard was out but didn’t have much success. I am not too concerned about this because Trent is a better player now than he was earlier in the season. In the bubble, Trent is serving as a knockdown shooter and is scoring 21.56 DraftKings points per game. Now starting, he could push for close to 40 minutes in a must-win game for Portland. The Blazers only shot to win this game is to try to play with variance by launching a 3-point barrage. If there’s one thing we know Trent can do, it’s shoot the basketball.
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NBA DFS Stud Pick: James Harden
DraftKings $11,800, FanDuel $11,600, Yahoo $56
The Rockets seemed like a safe bet to advance in the playoffs a few days ago. Up 2-0 in their series over the Thunder, Houston was on its way to coasting to the second round. This is despite Russell Westbrook sitting out due to a quad injury. Now, the outcome looks much more up in the air. After back-to-back losses, the series is knotted at two games apiece, and books have this series set at about 60/40 odds in favor of the Rockets. In addition, Westbrook is still without a clear timetable to return to action and we can expect Harden to carry a massive workload.
There is a bit of an odd narrative floating around that Luguentz Dort is the Harden stopper. He’s a nice defender and is playing relatively well on Harden when the two match up. Even so, Harden scored 74 DraftKings points on Monday, which included scoring 32 points on 25 shots. That is not to mention Harden also added 15 assists to his stat line. Dort is a nice defender, but Harden is still getting his fantasy points, and in a game the Rockets need to win, look for Harden to play over 40 minutes with a usage rating hovering around 40%.
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NBA DFS Fade Pick: Markelle Fultz
DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $5,500, Yahoo $18
The Magic are another team likely getting sent home today. Trailing 3-1 in their series to the Bucks, none of these games have played competitively since Game 1. In the playoffs, Fultz has popped as a good value in a handful of games. The results were mixed, and he does have a few big-value games in his game logs. The issue I have here is potential ownership. After a big game on Monday, I think the masses will likely go back to the well with Fultz. This is fine, and I don’t actually have a massive issue with him in a vacuum. As a NBA DFS GPP play, I tend to lean towards D.J. Augustin. The two points guards are negatively correlated, and I think it always makes sense to go the one with less ownership on these smaller slates.
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