NBA Bubble action is underway, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Sunday’s slate.
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Value Pick: Kemba Walker
DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $5,700, Yahoo $25, SuperDraft 1.5x
It is not often that Walker is thought of as a value play. Given the circumstances surrounding his playing time, Walker is priced down everywhere, which makes sense. Walker is averaging slightly under 23 minutes in the bubble since the Celtics are being extremely cautious with his workload. The good news is that the minutes restriction is coming off going forward. In fact, the expectation was for 30 minutes from Walker on Friday, but the Celtics beat the Raptors by 22 points, and the starters didn’t play down the stretch. Boston needs to get his playing time stretched so that he’s ready to play big minutes in the playoffs.
Assuming Walker plays 30 minutes, what is a fair price for him? Thirty minutes may not seem like much, but Walker is only averaging 31 minutes per game on the season. This is fairly close to his typical workload and he averages about 35 fantasy points per game. Priced over $7,000 and as high as in the $9,000 range this season, Walker’s is about $1,500 too cheap on DraftKings and FanDuel. Even though playing the Magic is a less-than-ideal matchup, a player as good as Walker is likely at the lowest price we will see him at for the rest of the season. This is the final opportunity to buy low on Walker.
Stud Pick: James Harden
DraftKings $11,300, FanDuel $10,800, Yahoo $54, SuperDraft 1x
With Russell Westbrook out of the lineup for the second consecutive game, it is impossible to ignore the expected workload for Harden. Without Westbrook on the court, Harden’s usage jumps to 43.8%, and he scored about 65 fantasy points per 36 minutes. It is also nice that the Rockets typically allow Harden to play normal minutes regardless of the situation. For this reason, I don’t think he carries the same risk of limited minutes as most other star players at this point of the season. In a blowout win over the Lakers last game, Houston ran Harden for 36 minutes, as he scored 74 fantasy points on DraftKings. He is almost certainly chalk today, but Harden in a situation without Westbrook is chalk that I am willing to eat every time.
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Fade Pick: Paul George
DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $7,600, Yahoo $36, SuperDraft 1.45x
This is a quick turn for me. Just yesterday I listed George as my favorite stud in this column, and now he’s a fade for me. While he didn’t bust yesterday, his performance with Kawhi Leonard resting was a bit disappointing. George didn’t play poorly, although odd coaching decisions led to limited minutes. With five minutes left in a close game, the Clippers turned to the end of the bench to close the game out. It seemed like they attempted to lose the game to help get the Blazers into the eight seed. On paper, Portland is a tougher matchup for the Lakers than any of the other potential eight seeds, and the Clippers tried to set that matchup. This did not go as planned. Damian Lillard fell apart down the stretch as the end of the Clipper bench picked up a win.
Even though there is no strategic reason to lose today’s game like yesterday, the Clippers don’t have incentive to win. Nearly locked into the two seed, Los Angeles is likely to remain cautious with its core players for the final few games of the regular season. In addition, this is a game against the Nets, who are resting Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Joe Harris. For this reason, the Clippers come into today as a 13-point favorite. This is a good spot for the Clippers to rest players or at least limit minutes on the tail end of a back-to-back.
