NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Fantasy Lineups & Strategy

If you had to write a few thousand words about the NBA DFS slate but knew you only had a partial list of the relevant plays, how would you get started? That’s the dilemma on the most chaotic day in an already chaotic daily fantasy basketball season. With a long list of teams with and without something to play for — note, for some teams “something to play for” does not necessarily mean winning their game, as teams like the Thunder would benefit in the draft lottery from an additional loss — basically anything can and will happen tonight. If you watched the early slate Live Before Lock, we will be dealing with similar chaos on a larger scale.

The best way to approach tonight’s slate is going to be taking it game by game, and reviewing the “known knowns” and “known unknowns” for tonight’s contests as best we can. The analysis below includes a snapshot of each team’s playoff situation, any current lineup information and an overview for players who seem likely to contribute NBA DFS upside tonight. Things will change after this article is published. Paying close attention to news updates and tools like the Boom/Bust and Ownership Projections are going to be critical to success as we approach lock tonight. There will likely be enough value on the board to roster anyone we want in various configurations on both DraftKings and FanDuel on this slate.

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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 16

Note: With all the chaos, and perhaps a streak of masochism, we’re going to tackle this one game by game. Feel free to DM me in Slack with any questions, things will change after this article is published.

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks (-8 / 232.5 total)

Known Knowns: Atlanta cannot fall below the five seed in the playoffs and their future will be determined by the outcome of the Knicks game in the afternoon. If the Knicks beat the Celtics they earn the four seed and Atlanta falls to five. If the Knicks lose the Hawks would be the four seed, the Heat cannot catch them for the spot though they can pass the Knicks for the five seed. This gives Atlanta flexibility in who can take the court tonight, the Hawks will likely look to rest at least a few of their ailing veteran players. The Rockets are a terrible basketball team with nothing to play for, they are still nursing numerous injuries.

Known Unknowns: The 1:30 injury report lists all of: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter as questionable. Trae Young and Tony Snell are both listed as probable. This leaves the potential rotation very much in flux, which will become a familiar refrain as we go through games. For the Rockets, everyone who has been out remains out, including their most viable daily fantasy basketball players in Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood and John Wall. The Rockets roster has several relatively stable points, but also some major questions in this one, such as where will the minutes, usage and production go in their projected nine-man rotation.

Relevant Players — Hawks

Trae Young (PG — $8,800 DraftKings/PG — $8,700 FanDuel) seems like the most likely of the Hawks key players to at least hit the court tonight. However, with nothing to truly play for, there is the possibility that he is just going to make a cameo appearance in the first half of the contest. Assuming a full complement of minutes, Young would be a solid option for raw fantasy point production in this one, he faces little resistance in what should be a fast paced game. He averages 1.27 fantasy points per minute across all situations and he will have plenty of opportunity to feast if he plays, particularly given a situation in which other key players sit.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (PG/SG — $7,200 DraftKings/SF — $7,700 FanDuel) is a very different play across sites, but he is a likely candidate for rest tonight. Bogdanovic has been excellent for the Hawks down the stretch, averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute since the trade deadline. It simply seems unlikely that he will see enough time on the floor to justify his salaries tonight, though if we have news of full minutes he would be fine as a mix-and-match play.

John Collins (PF/C — $6,500 DraftKings/PF — $7,100 FanDuel) is a relatively healthy body in the Hawks frontcourt, which has us optimistic about the minutes upside. Collins has a 29.5-minute projection on the night which makes him relevant as a mix-in. That is with Capela and others projected to play. Given news of additional absences in the frontcourt, Collins could gain ground in our boom/bust tool. In 114 minutes without Capela on the floor over the last month, Collins has produced 1.20 fantasy points per minute, an interesting rate for the salary.

Clint Capela (C — $8,200 DraftKings/C — $7,800 FanDuel) is another player who seems somewhat unlikely to play tonight. He has been highly productive in his first year in Atlanta, putting up 1.35 fantasy points per minute across all situations, which would have him as a slate-relevant play though not at the top of any of our probability metrics on either site. If Capela sits, we could see increased opportunity for value players.

Onyeka Okongwu (C — $3,000 DraftKings/C — $4,200 FanDuel) would instantly gain value on the DraftKings slate with news of Capela sitting. He costs the bare minimum on the site despite 0.87 fantasy points per minute over his 202 minutes without Capela on the floor over the past month. Okongwu would be one of many strong value plays should we get the Capela news ahead of lock, if the starter plays he is off the board entirely.

Lou Williams (SG — $3,000 DraftKings/SG — $3,500 FanDuel) would become a relevant play in the situation where we have Huerter, Gallinari and Bogdanovic absent. There is only a 26-minute sample for the situation since Williams joined the team after the trade deadline, but he produced 1.34 fantasy points per minute in that tiny sample. Williams is an upside scorer at the dead minimum salary on both sites. He has just a 14-minute projection and would be entirely irrelevant given any mix of the three more important players taking the court.

Relevant Players — Rockets

KJ Martin Jr (PF — $7,400 DraftKings/PF — $7,400 FanDuel) is the leading Rockets player in Awesemo’s minutes projections in the mid-afternoon update, which is reason enough to consider him a relevant play. Martin averages 0.74 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, but he has been at 0.96 per minute since the deadline when all of Wall, Wood and Porter are off the floor. Martin is fairly priced for the role tonight, there are extreme value plays on the board and the utility of a player from the mid-range is somewhat in question in how rosters come together, but Martin is on the board at least as a viable mix-in.

Jae’Sean Tate (SF/PF — $6,200 DraftKings/PF — $5,300 FanDuel) is a better looking play on the FanDuel slate, though he is drawing ownership that is concerningly ahead of his probability of being in the optimal lineup. He is less popular and less interesting for more money on the DraftKings slate. Tate averages 0.87 fantasy points per minute for the season, but similarly increases his potential output in this configuration of the team, landing at a solid 1.00 mark since the deadline.

DJ Augustin (PG — $3,900 DraftKings/PG — $4,000 FanDuel) has produced 0.91 fantasy points per minute since the deadline in this configuration and he is projected for a 29.3 minute night, making him a mix-in value play with a strong probability of a boom score. Augustin consumes 22.0% of the usage in the situation in games since the deadline, which could make him a somewhat underappreciated play with upside publicly today.

Armoni Brooks (PG — $4,900 DraftKings/SG — $5,300 FanDuel) has seen 18.1% usage in roughly this configuration of the team in games since the deadline. Brooks is priced for the situation on both sites and would be in play primarily as a mix-in across a full 150 lineup slate of entries. For limited lineup builders, this is not a strong value play despite the minutes upside, unless we get changing news that would alter his role.

Kelly Olynyk (PF/C — $8,500/C — $8,500 FanDuel) has been productive in Houston and has seen his salary skyrocket to highly unexpected places. This has all of his probability metrics way down for this slate; however, Olynyk simply looks like a bad play before we get all of the late news values, at that point in the day he will likely be off the board entirely despite a 26.9% usage rate and a sharp 1.43 fantasy points per minute in the situation.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets ( -14 / 224.5 total)

Known Knowns: The Nets need to win this game to clinch the two seed over the Bucks. The Cavaliers suck and have nothing to play for. The Nets will be without Joe Harris and Chris Chiozza at least, while the Cavs will have most of their usual frontcourt out with all of Kevin Love, Isaiah Hartenstein, Larry Nance and Taurean Prince sitting. The Cavs will also have Darius Garland and Matthew Dellavedova on the shelf once again. This game is going to be an ugly affair and should produce some significant NBA DFS scoring, though the stars from the Nets are unlikely to be playing the fourth quarter. Despite needing to win this game, Brooklyn will not have to try very hard to pull off the trick, which should thrust Nets reserves into prominent roles.

Known Unknowns: Where the Nets minutes will fall. This is one of the few games for which we do not have an extensive list of questionable players. Given the banged up nature of the Nets superstar trio, however, we could be dealing with breaking news about rest at any moment. The Suns did something similar, sitting several of their star players today despite competing for the top seed in the West.

Relevant Players — Nets

Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant are all unlikely to play the full game tonight, each of the stars is carrying just a 27-minute projection from Awesemo tonight and given their pricing in the $9,000 — $10,000 range across both sites, they are simply afterthoughts for any upside. If one plays significantly more minutes than the other two he will dominate the team’s production and could be an NBA DFS play, we simply have no early inclination of which that would be. Given news, this play could change dramatically. If any one star is ruled out, the other two become more interesting and gain ground in our probability-based metrics.

Nicolas Claxton (C — $3,300 DraftKings/PF — $4,400 FanDuel) is an unexpected name to find atop the boom/bust tool for this contest given the star power on his own team, but that’s where he lands today off just a 22.7-minute projection. Claxton could see significantly more time than that, depending on how the Nets manage the time for their stars and Blake Griffin. Claxton has produced 1.07 fantasy points per minute over all situations this season, if he begins to approach the 30-minute mark he will be an extreme value play, particularly at his DraftKings price. The positioning on FanDuel has Claxton as a highly optimal slate-relevant play already, and he is trending under-owned.

Bruce Brown (SF — $4,100 DraftKings/SG — $5,200 FanDuel) is available for the team tonight and is carrying a 25.2-minute projection, which would make him a relevant mix-in play on FanDuel and perhaps a little more than that with some upside as a small forward on the DraftKings slate. Brown has put up 0.92 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and he would become one of the leads in the offense in the second half if the trio of stars takes a seat. In 139 minutes without the trio on the floor since the deadline, Brown has put up a significant per-minute mark, coming in at 1.27. That would make him a valuable play at the DraftKings price.

Relevant Players — Cavaliers

Jarret Allen (C — $6,900 DraftKings/C — $6,400 FanDuel) is clinging to NBA DFS relevance in this one. He comes up in slightly more than 10% of the optimal lineups in simulations for the blue site, slightly less on the DraftKings slate. Allen has benefitted from the absences of his teammates in the frontcourt in recent weeks, putting up a 0.93 per-minute mark in this structure of the rotation since the deadline. Allen is priced about right for that production however, which is impacting the probability metrics. He has relatively secure minutes tonight, but still does not stand out for much value or upside on the slate.

Collin Sexton (PG/SG — $8,200 DraftKings/SG — $7,900 FanDuel) is another Cavs player who will basically be in the situation to which we have grown accustomed rostering him. He is productive without this set of teammates on the floor, putting up 0.99 fantasy points per minute since the deadline, but he is appropriately priced and lacks significant upside or changed opportunity. This is an “is who he is” spot for Sexton and there does not appear to be news that could emerge to impact that role.

Dean Wade (PF — $4,100 DraftKings/PF — $5,000 FanDuel) has upside with a 32.7-minute projection and a relatively low salary. He appears to be a stronger play on the DraftKings slate where he comes in at a slightly lower relative cost, which is creating a solid boom score probability on our board in the afternoon update. Wade is likely to get outpaced by better options for value at the position, however. He has under a five percent probability of landing in the optimal lineup on FanDuel and is only looking slightly better on the DraftKings slate already before that late-breaking value pops. This is a reasonable mix-in with limited upside appeal in the raw fantasy points per dollar category.

Isaac Okoro (SG/SF — $5,300 DraftKings/SG — $5,800 FanDuel) is priced appropriately for his upside at 35.7 minutes. He averages just 0.58 fantasy points per minute for the season, but jumps to 0.84 in this configuration. He would be a much sharper play at cheaper pricing, there does not seem to be news that would emerge to impact his overall likelihood of being a requirement for accessing the top of standings today.

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Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers ( -8.5 / 216.5 total)

Known Knowns: Neither of these teams is playing for anything. Philadelphia has clinched the top seed in the East and Orlando’s season was over in early January. The Magic are without all of Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis, Jonathan Isaac, Otto Porter, Chuma Okeke and Terrence Ross. In the Magic’s most recent game their leading scorer was Ignas Brazdeikis who is not good enough to have cracked the Knicks rotation over the last three years. There are no truly relevant plays in this game, but we will look at a few names that people will at least have in mind.

Known Unknowns: The Sixers are likely to rest their key players, though Joel Embiid is listed as probable, while Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle are all questionable.

Relevant Players — Magic

Cole Anthony (PG — $6,600 DraftKings/PG — $5,000 FanDuel) is likely to lead the way for Orlando, though he has just a 26-minute projection tonight. Anthony is not slate-relevant in our probability metrics and is likely to leave NBA DFS owners wanting more given the potentially capped minutes.

RJ Hampton (PG/SG $5,600 DraftKings/PG — $6,200 FanDuel) picks up a 30-minute projection from Awesemo but he is priced to the time and potential production and is largely off the board, even as a mix and match option. Hampton is currently pulling a 1.6% optimal lineup rate on FanDuel and just 2.6% on DraftKings despite the positional flexibility. There are simply no good reasons to play the mid-range players today.

Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba are both center-only plays on both sites, neither is projected for much value on either site tonight. Carter costs $5,800 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel, while Bamba is at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,100 on the blue site. Bamba would be the preferred player if we had to pick one, but there is no apparent reason to roster either player at this point in the day.

Relevant Players — Sixers

Joel Embiid (C — $10,100 DraftKings/C — $9,700 FanDuel) is going to have a very difficult time justifying his price tag in just the 24 minutes of action for which Awesemo has him projected. Embiid could sit this game out entirely, there is no real reason to put him on the floor tonight. In limited time, he is simply too expensive to consider for many shares. Embiid is in the optimal lineup far less frequently than we would need at these salaries.

The remaining Sixers require news to properly project. With Harris and Simmons in, no one is relevant. With those players off the floor, we could see emergent value for Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, Seth Curry (Q), Matisse Thybulle (Q), and Danny Green (Q). Dwight Howard would gain relevance were Embiid to sit.

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons ( +6 / 214.5 total)

Known Knowns: The Heat are in play for the five seed if the Knicks fall to the Celtics. They cannot climb past the Hawks, however, and would be relegated to the six spot if the Knicks win, giving them nothing to play for in this weak matchup with one of the lower totals on the board. The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo. The Pistons have been irrelevant in the standings all season.

Known Unknowns: The Pistons will be without most of the players who have recently been absent, though Cory Joseph is listed as questionable in the afternoon injury report. Goran Dragic is questionable for the Heat, who could also decide to sit any number of other players who have bounced in and out of the lineup if they find themselves with nothing to play for.

Relevant Players — Heat

Bam Adebayo (C — $8,300 DraftKings/C — $8,200 FanDuel) has both upside and a fairly frequent appearance rate in the optimal lineup in our simulations, making him one of the more relevant players from the early games on the slate. He has had a terrific year, putting up 1.24 fantasy points per minute. Without Butler on the floor, Adebayo typically sees his already strong assist rate take a bounce, increasing his potential for production. This would bounce higher again if Dragic is not available.

Relevant Players — Pistons

Josh Jackson (SG/SF — $5,900 DraftKings/SG — $5,200 FanDuel) has produced 0.96 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year and a whopping 1.29 in situations like tonight’s likely lineup, though that is in just a 59-minute sample. Jackson is potentially a productive per-minute player and his positioning on both sites gives him rare mid-range utility and upside value for this slate. Jackson is in consideration and comes up in the optimal lineup in 18.7% of FanDuel simulations, though he is under 10% on DraftKings.

Hamidou Diallo (SF — $4,700 DraftKings/SG — $7,200 FanDuel) might be the player with the most divergent pricing from site to site that we’ve seen this year. Diallo is relevant on the DraftKings slate and barely scratching mix-in value on FanDuel. Averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and 1.20 in 50 minutes in tonight’s given situation, Diallo makes for an excellent value play on the DraftKings slate.

Saddiq Bey (SF — $6,600 DraftKings/SF — $5,800 — FanDuel) is the final player on the Pistons who has any pre-news relevance. That could quickly disappear, depending on what emerges at the small forward position on FanDuel. Bey is already only showing limited appeal for the price and positioning on the DraftKings slate. He has averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute all season and just 0.74 in 75 minutes in this situation. Those numbers are holding onto upside by a fingernail at the FanDuel price, Bey is likely a mix-in option at best on this slate.

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings ( +9 / 221.5 total)

Known Knowns: The Jazz could lock up the top seed with either an unlikely Suns loss in the afternoon or a win at Sacramento. The Kings have nothing to play for. Sacramento will be without Marvin Bagley, Harrison Barnes, De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Richaun Holmes. The Jazz are still without Donovan Mitchell.

Known Unknowns: All of the relevant Jazz players could sit if Phoenix should lose in the afternoon.

Relevant Players — Jazz

Rudy Gobert (C — $8,100 DraftKings/C — $8,200 FanDuel) is barely on the board due to a minutes projection below 30, which is true for the vast majority of the Jazz roster tonight. Gobert is unlikely to see any value as the Jazz will blow past the Kings with relative ease, and there is no frontcourt threat whatsoever on the other side that would require his attention. If Gobert sits when the Jazz clinch, we could see extended value for Georges Niang (C — $3,800 DraftKings/PF — $4,100 FanDuel), who has produced 0.74 fantsay points per minute for the season but would see increased time and utility.

Joe Ingles (SG/SF — $6,200 DraftKings/SG — $5,500 FanDuel) would have value in normal circumstances at these prices, and could pick some additional projection room up if Mike Conley sits. Conley is projected for just 22 minutes and seems the most likely of the Jazz to take the night off if the game happens to not matter. If Conley plays, he will likely be out in the second half, but this may not be enough to thrust Ingles or Jordan Clarkson (PG/SG — $7,500 DraftKings/PG — $7,400 FanDuel) into much relevance despite their general upticks in the situation.

Relevant Players — Kings

Louis King (SF — $3,300 DraftKings/SF — $5,200 FanDuel) is another player priced wildly differently across sites. He is an extreme value play on the DraftKings slate where he is hitting the board in the optimal lineup nearly half the time. He comes up significantly optimal on FanDuel as well given the 1.32 fantasy points per minute and 33-minute projection from Awesemo tonight. Standing as one of the more relative “who?” plays on the board, King could provide extremely sneaky upside tonight, the public seems to be trailing the curve on the play by a wide margin in the afternoon ownership projections, King is both one of the most optimal and most positively leveraged plays on the slate on both sites tonight. Until everything changes anyway.

Damian Jones (C — $3,500 DraftKings/C — $5,700 FanDuel) is priced up for the situation on the FanDuel slate but retains strong value on DraftKings. He does not appear in the optimal lineup as frequently in simulations for that site as someone with a 47.1% boom score probability might be expected to given the positioning against other value plays, and he is currently projecting for a large share of public ownership. That mark is outpacing his probability metrics and creating a noticeable negative leverage score on DraftKings, which chews up any upside he would have otherwise provided on the slate.

Chimezie Metu (PF/C — $5,000 DraftKings/C — $4,800 FanDuel) is projected for 27 minutes in the absence of the Kings regular frontcourt, and he could see a slight uptick when a few minutes allocated to Whiteside come off the board in our projections. Metu is simply a mix and match at mid-range pricing however despite a solid 0.99 fantasy points per minute on the season.

Jahmi’us Ramsey (PG/SG — $3,100 DraftKings/PG — $3,900 FanDuel) has a nearly 30-minute projection and is priced as a solid value on both sites. He averages 0.81 fantasy points per minute across limited opportunity through the season, playing in a total of 12 games. The minutes and pricing have him only very slightly on the board, primarily based on his boom score probability, but he stands as a mix-in option given the lack of a significant optimal lineup appearance rate.

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder ( +9.5 / 221.5 total)

Known Knowns: The Clippers can win the three seed with a victory and a Denver loss. The Thunder are irrelevant and would rather lose this game and pick up better odds in the Lottery. The Clippers are still almost certainly likely to rest Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris Reggie Jackson and Rajon Rondo. Despite starting the last game, Zubac and Morris combined for only 12 minutes. Luke Kennard and Yogi Ferrell are extreme values on all sites. Lu Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remain out for the Thunder.

Known Unknowns: The exact status of the Clippers starting lineup.

Relevant Players — Clippers

Yogi Ferrell (PG — $3,600 — DraftKings/PG — $4,100 FanDuel) is one of the top plays on the probability-based boom/bust board on the entire slate. Ferrell is projected to pick up the lion’s share of minutes with the stars presumed to be sitting, he has a 35.1-minute projection in the afternoon update. Ferrell has produced 1.0 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and he is in line for significant run at bargain pricing. This is one of the few spots on the slate that requires no thought; Ferrell is a plug-and-play option on both sites.

Luke Kennard (SG/SF — $3,900 DraftKings/SG — $4,200 FanDuel) in a similar situation to his teammate, Kennard stands as another of the very peak plays for our optimal lineup and boom score probability rates on either site at any position. He is slated for nearly 40 minutes, a whopping projection for the pricing, and he will have few to no obstacles in his path to a ceiling score on this one. Kennard averages 0.74 fantasy points per minute for the season, but he stands out for extreme value on this particular slate in this configuration of teammates. He is a fundamental building block for lineup constructions across both sites tonight, and he is currently projecting for extremely high leverage, though that will dramatically change as the specifics around the Clippers rotation change.

Terance Mann (SG — $3,700 DraftKings/SG — $4,200 FanDuel) slots in for a lower minutes projection and therefore somewhat less value than his two previously mentioned teammates despite similar production, pricing and positioning. Mann is currently listed as questionable to even take the floor, but if he is out there he will have value. In extended run he could stretch his 0.79 fantasy points per minute. Mann averaged 1.03 points per minute without most of the likely absent players in games since the trade deadline, if we get news of full minutes he could leap into additional relevance.

Jay Scrubb (SG — $3,500 DraftKings/SG — $4,000 FanDuel) is a name that Awesemo may have slipped into the boom/bust tool to see if we’re paying attention. For a “stars and Scrubbs” lineup, you could do worse than picking him on either site. He will not be popular unless very specific news about him emerges, but he has a 39.2-minute projection from Awesemo and pops for some relevance at his value pricing. This is not a player to go to ahead of his teammates by any means, he has played in just three games all season and is at under 0.7 fantasy points per minute in this contests.

DeMarcus Cousins (C — $3,400 DraftKings/C — $5,000 FanDuel) seems unlikely to deliver on his FanDuel price, but at the value on DraftKings he could provide relevance if we are without Zubac in this one. We know that Cousins is a per-minute monster, he has a 1.27 average across all situations this season, so he would need very little time to make value at his DraftKings price. Cousins is projected for just 18.6 minutes, which still leaves him in the optimal lineup in more than 10% of simulated slates. If that mark climbs, so will his upside and value.

Relevant Players — Thunder

With everyone priced at “who they are” values, there are no truly relevant members of the Thunder tonight in this matchup against even a depleted Clippers squad. Darius Bazley (PF — $6,300 DraftKings/PF — $5,700 FanDuel) is the best player and most likely upside producer on the team, he stands at a 3.9% optimal lineup rate on FanDuel, worse on DraftKings. There is nothing to see here.

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Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers ( -9 / 229 total)

Known Knowns: There are few relevant items for this space currently, though Will Barton, PJ Dozier and, of course, Jamal Murray remain out for Denver.

Known Unknowns: In one of the more potentially bizarre situations on the board, Denver would benefit from losing this game, in that it could help set up a situation in which they would play this same Portland team in the first round of the playoffs instead of possibly facing the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Blazers could be in a similar situation where winning this game would thrust them into a first round matchup against the Clippers. In a game that everyone is trying to lose in order to avoid facing a team from Los Angeles, where do we go for NBA DFS production?

Relevant Players — Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. (SF/PF — $8,400 DraftKings/SF — $7,500 FanDuel) is the most frequently optimal Nuggets player in early simulations on FanDuel, coming up in the optimal lineup in 2.5% of simulations. At a much higher price he lands in 0.6% of simulated slates for DraftKings. This situation is created by a mere 25.9-minute projection from Awesemo; a situation that holds true for most of the usually relevant Denver players.

With no one over 30 minutes, even Nikola Jokic (C — $10,800 DraftKings/C — $10,700 FanDuel) seems highly unlikely to provide any upside or value to NBA DFS lineups. Jokic has a ridiculous 1.58 fantasy points per minute in a potential MVP season, in spite of that, he is in just 2.1% of optimal lineups on FanDuel and 3.2% on DraftKings. He is simply too expensive to expect any chance of a ceiling score from given only a 25.4-minute projection.

Shaquille Harrison (PG/SF — $3,000 DraftKings/PG — $3,500 FanDuel) is a name to watch if news emerges. Harrison is projected for just 22.7 minutes in the afternoon update, which is keeping him mostly off the board but pushing his boom score probability slightly. If he trends more toward 30 in later updates given any news about rest for other backcourt players, the minimum prices would help Harrison gain ground quickly.

Denver is littered with similar potential value plays that are waiting on news. This list could include any of Aaron Gordon, Austin Rivers, Monte Morris, and even JaVale McGee.

Relevant Players — Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard (PG — $9,400 DraftKings/PG — $9,900 FanDuel) is projected for 40-minutes, so Awesemo is not buying into any narratives that Portland is not going all out for this win. Lillard is still underpriced on both sites, this is a $10,000 player on most slates. He has put up 1.28 fantasy points per minute as the alpha in the Trail Blazers offense, leading the team in usage at 30.7% for the season. Lillard contributes a stellar 45.2% assist rate but just a 12.9% rebounding rate, assuming the Blazers are trying to score points, he should have strong upside and he stands out as one of the go-to star options on the slate.

CJ McCollum (SG — $7,600 DraftKings/SG — $7,900 FanDuel) similarly is projected for nearly 40 minutes of action tonight. He would have strong upside on both sites in that scenario. McCollum is second on the team all season in usage, coming in with a 26.4% rate. He does not kick in the same assist rate that his point guard does, nor does he rebound the basketball well, making him a bit of a scoring dependent guard play. McCollum is not overly expensive on either site, though he pops for more value on FanDuel where he is ahead of Lillard by less than a percentage point in the optimal lineup appearance rate metric. Both guards are firmly in play across the industry, assuming they are taking the court and trying to win.

Norman Powell (SG/SF — $5,900 DraftKings/SF — $6,600 FanDuel) has been at an underwhelming 0.80 fantasy points per minute since arriving in Portland at the deadline. He is simply required to show up and act as a reliable three-and-D wing instead of needing to do any heavy lifting, seeing just 20.5% usage with his new team. Powell is on the board for moderate shares on both sites tonight, but he is not a true standout play. In the absence of either of his star teammates, this could change fairly significantly.

Several players join Powell in the mix and match range, including Carmelo Anthony, Robert Covington and Jusuf Nurkic all of whom will be at or around their usual role and production. None stand out for extreme value or upside; they are all simply available and somewhat projectable.

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans (+7 / 221 total)

Known Knowns: The Lakers can earn the six seed if they win and the Blazers lose. All of the NBA talent for the Pelicans will be out.

Known Unknowns: LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both listed as questionable.

Relevant Players — Lakers

LeBron James (PG/SF — $9,800 DraftKings/SF — $10,100 FanDuel) is projected for 33.9 minutes which has him relevant in a nice-to-win situation. Assuming he plays, James is a strong option for production and he is underpriced anytime he falls below $10,000 on any site. James averages 1.41 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, he does not need news to gain more relevance, but if he plays and Davis sits, there is likely a bit of additional upside in the play. As it stands on the board now, James is one of the more appealing stars available.

Anthony Davis (PF/C — $10,200 DraftKings/PF — $10,600 FanDuel) as the higher priced of the two stars, Davis stands below James in our optimal lineup and boom score probability metrics. He averages 1.33 fantasy points per minute for the season, which means his values are appropriate, though he is still coming up in 12.0% of optimal lineups on DraftKings and 20.9% on FanDuel given the requirement for two power forwards on the site. Davis would gain upside if James were to sit as well. If both are on the court, James is the preference. Both players are currently projected for positive leverage, though this will change with confirmation of their status.

Andre Drummond (C — $6,500 DraftKings/C — $6,900 FanDuel) is the final Lakers option showing much relevance on either site tonight. At a 1.36 per-minute rate, Drummond is a point-per-dollar dream in the right spots. He is projected for a 27.4 minute night in the latest update, run that would keep him as one of the more interesting center plays on either site. Drummond is somewhat sneaky as well; he is projected for less than five percent ownership on either site tonight given the potential upside this seems quite light.

If either of the stars sits, other Lakers will pick up value, including Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder and Alex Caruso (Q)

Relevant Players — Pelicans

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (PG — $6,800 DraftKings/SG — $6,800 FanDuel) has put up 0.98 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. He has seen 26.5% usage and put up 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks given the absences in the Pelicans rotation. Alexander-Walker is not a secret to the public on this slate, he is projected for slightly negative leverage, but has upside at his prices. He is one of the mid-range options who has utility given his positioning across sites tonight.

Naji Marshall (SG/SF — $5,100 DraftKings/SF — $5,800 FanDuel) is the other player who has benefitted most from the recent configuration of the Pelicans’ lineup. He is appropriately priced for his 0.89 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, but at the 1.05 he has posted in this situation, he is underpriced and has strong upside as better than a mix-in play. Marshall will also be popular however, mind the leverage score as we head into lock and look for potential pivots if he trends too far in the wrong direction.

Wenyen Gabriel (SF/PF — $3,100 DraftKings/PF — $4,400 FanDuel) has a strong possibility for upside on this slate given his low DraftKings pricing. He stands at a solid boom score probability, having produced a 0.94 per-minute rate in this situation over the past two weeks. Gabriel is quietly pulling in a better than 50% boom score probability on DraftKings despite the lack of optimal lineup frequency.

Kira Lewis (PG/SG — $3,300 DraftKings/PG — $4,100 FanDuel) is similar to Gabriel in that he is cheap and has potential for upside at his 29.2-minute projection. Lewis has put up a matching 0.80 fantasy points per minute across all situations, but has been at just 0.70 in the recent sample, giving the edge to Gabriel for the value play.

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5 / 230 total)

Known Knowns: Dallas can lock down the five seed and avoid any tiebreaker scenarios with a win. They will fall to sixth with a loss and a combination of other factors. Dallas has something to play for, Minnesota does not.

Known Unknowns: Maxi Kleber is doubtful.

Relevant Players — Mavericks

Luka Doncic (PG/SF — $10,300 DraftKings/PG — $10,100 FanDuel) is likely to get close to his usual complement of minutes, with the Mavericks needing to win this game for seeding purposes. Doncic is a spectacular option on most slates and he stands out as a strong star play and pay-up option tonight. He recorded a triple-double in the team’s most recent win, another must-win situation that kept pace in the playoff seeding race. He has a 33.9-minute projection on the night and should be at or above his typical team-leading 35% usage. Doncic has a stellar 51.9% assist share on the season and he pulls in a respectable 25.8% rebounding rate as well, he is an excellent multi-category producer on any slate.

Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C — $8,300 DraftKings/PF — $7,000 FanDuel) is a player that Dallas would probably prefer to rest given the opportunity. If the Mavericks get up big early, Porzingis could see the back-end of his night take a haircut, which would severely hamper his upside at the DraftKings price. On FanDuel, Porzingis is so cheap that he retains value despite what is currently only a 29.3-minute projection. He will likely have the opportunity to pay off the salary on the blue site before the game even reaches the fourth quarter, which adds a modicum of security on that site. Porzingis has a strong boom score probability and optimal lineup rate on FanDuel, he is at best a mix-in option on DraftKings, where he well below 10% in both categories.

Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway and Josh Richardson all fall into the midrange and compete with one another for relevance on essentially every slate, making not one of them stand out for value on either site. There is a likelihood that one will have at least some relevance to the slate tonight, but making that forecast is difficult. Not one of those players ranks above five percent in our optimal lineup appearance rate metric on either site. Similarly, Dwight Powell and Nicolo Melli are not picking up much probability relevance despite the chance to see minutes in the frontcourt in the absence of Kleber and potential limitation of Porzingis. If Porzingis ends up sitting, there is a chance that one of this duo could gain more relevance, likely Powell, who has put up 0.90 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season.

Relevant Players — Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns (C — $9,900 DraftKings/C — $9,600 FanDuel) continues to land below $10,000 salary on both sites, which will continue to keep him in lineups and on the board in our probability metrics. Towns does not stand out for the cost requirement when compared to the available stars at other positions, but he is one of the more frequently optimal center selections and he has upside potential for the low-for-him pricing. He averages 1.38 fantasy points per minute and is projected for a regular 33.1 minute night. While Minnesota has nothing to play for, there is always the competitive nature of wanting to play spoiler for the opposing team, there is no reason to believe that Towns will not be his usual motivated self on the floor tonight.

D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG — $7,800 DraftKings/SG — $7,500 FanDuel) has been solid for the Timberwolves since his return from a long injury absence. Russell has put up 1.14 fantasy points per minute for the season and 1.18 since his return. He is drawing significant attention on the FanDuel slate, less so on DraftKings, but in both instances the ownership is outpacing the rate at which he is optimal in simulated slates. Russell will likely be in his usual role and is projected for just 34.1 minutes, with no obvious emergent news. Unless something changes, he is ok as a mix-in option, but this seems like a good spot to consider undercutting the field and getting to more of the highly optimal plays.

Anthony Edwards (SG/SF — $7,700 DraftKings/SF — $8,500 FanDuel) is similarly in a situation where is priced appropriately for what he is likely to contribute. Edwards will be in his usual role tonight; the top-notch first overall pick has put up 1.00 fantasy points per minute for the season and has been at 1.10 since the deadline. The return of Russell did not put a dent in Edwards’ production as expected, to the contrary Edwards only climbed after Russell’s return. Still, the pricing lands Edwards as just a nice mix-in play given money to spend. There is nothing to say he can’t put up a strong game given a 36.1-minute projection, that upside is simply already baked into his pricing.

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls (+5 / 223.5 total)

Known Knowns: The Bucks need the Nets to lose to Cleveland in order to overtake them for the two seed. This is virtually impossible. The Bulls are not relevant to the playoff chase. Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are both out for Chicago. Khris Middleton is out for the Bucks.

Known Unknowns: The Bucks will know ahead of time if they need to win this game, it seems extremely likely that any or all of their star players will sit this one out.

Relevant Players — Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C — $10,700 DraftKings/PF — $11,100 FanDuel) is projected for 32.5 minutes in the latest update, which will assume that he is playing until we have a better idea of the situation. If he plays, this is quite obviously one of the best options on the slate given the star power and potential for a monster raw point total, which we will need to grasp in at least a few of our lineup slots, they can’t all be value plays. With Middleton out, there is potential for huge production. He averages 1.63 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, even in a potential blowout spot, if he has reason to try to win there is significant upside. Antetokounmpo has a huge 40% optimal lineup appearance rate on both sites in the current iteration of the boom/bust tool, the leading star player on the entire slate. This will change dramatically if his minutes are thrust into question, however, so it is critical to keep an eye on this spot and plan for any swapping scenarios that could emerge. This is easier on DraftKings, where he fits in as a center, giving us more potential pivot points.

Jrue Holiday (PG/SG — $8,000 DraftKings/PG — $7,700 FanDuel) is in play though not one of the top options, which has largely been the case for him most of this season. A better basketball acquisition than an NBA DFS play, Holiday has done precisely what was required from him and has been steady for the Bucks all season. His 1.14 fantasy points per minute would likely be higher on another team, but Holiday takes up just 21.7% usage with Milwaukee. He has a 34.2% assist rate and contributes 2.2 stocks per game to pad his fantasy totals. With Middleton out, Holiday gains value, he averages 1.37 fantasy points per minute in that situation since the deadline.

Bobby Portis (PF/C — $4,900 DraftKings/PF — $5,100 FanDuel) has averaged 1.42 fantasy points per minute across 244 minutes without Middleton on the floor since the deadline. If we remove Antetokounmpo from the equation, Portis leaps to 1.58 per-minute. This is a potential sleeping giant on the NBA DFS slate, though he is not currently popping for significant value on the boom/bust tool with only a 20.5-minute projection. Given news, Portis could quickly gain explosive upside, he is someone to watch for late-swapping purposes in that situation.

Donte DiVincenzo (PG/SG — $5,300 DraftKings/SG — $5,700 FanDuel) is another player who could be on the late-swapping board, in the off chance of news changing the situation for Milwaukee. He has been at a steady 1.17 fantasy points per minute without both stars since the deadline, though it is a small sample. Without just Middleton, the sample expands to 130 minutes, but the production drops to 1.02. DiVincenzo is on the board as a potential mix-in, particularly for late swapping, but only if we get the required news.

Relevant Players — Bulls

Thaddeus Young (PF/C — $5,600 DraftKings/PF — $5,000 FanDuel) it only makes sense that one of the more frequent “will he or won’t he” options of the NBA DFS season would find his way to significant relevance on the last slate of the season. With the long list of teammates missing for the Bulls tonight, Young is in an all-you-can-handle situation in the frontcourt, in a game that does not matter for his team. He is projected for just 25.5 minutes and a massive 41.8% ownership share on the FanDuel slate, 22.2% public popularity on DraftKings. Young has 1.19 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, he would be at a higher mark in this situation, but the value is extremely limited by the public ownership. Despite a 54.3% boom score probability, Young has a -20.1 leverage score that seems to take him off the table on a slate where we have readily available alternatives up and down the salary spectrum on FanDuel. Young is more in play on DraftKings, where his leverage score stands at a more user friendly -5.8, but he still pales in comparison to some of the better plays on the board. This is one best left to the public, and an easy spot to pivot for ownership reasons.

Coby White (PG — $6,500 DraftKings/PG — $6,100 FanDuel) has been at 0.88 fantasy points per minute over a 762 minute sample since the deadline. When we take LaVine and Vucevic off the floor, that mark falls to 0.75 over a 149-minute sample. White has a 27.8% assist rate on the season and gets some of his scoring from teammates, when playing with more limited teammates his upside becomes more scoring dependent, as he climbs to a 26.7% usage rate, second on the team. White is another Bulls player who seems to be pulling in an inappropriate share of ownership for his overall upside on the slate. This is again worse on FanDuel.

Patrick Williams (SF/PF — $3,500 DraftKings/SF — $4,400 FanDuel) is at a value salary and could be an interesting pivot from some of his more popular teammates. He has averaged 0.72 fantasy points per minute across the season, a mark that holds up in this configuration of teammates. He has limited upside for the point-per-dollar potential in a 32.3-minute projection on both sites, though the upside is much higher on DraftKings. Williams is tracking for more ownership than his optimal lineup rate across both sites as well. He is more of a mix-in option.

Lauri Markkanen (PF/C — $3,600 DraftKings/PF — $4,900 FanDuel) stands out as the go-to value play for his low price on DraftKings. He has an explosive 65.2% boom score probability on the site and he lands in the optimal lineup a significant amount of the time given his flexibility from power forward to center. Markkanen has been a bit disappointing overall this season at just 0.88 fantasy points per minute, but as a per-dollar play he looks terrific in this spot. On the FanDuel slate, he ranks as more of a mix-in option given the far higher price tag. Markkanen does gain on the blue site for having less public ownership than his other value-priced teammates. It is on DraftKings where he is a fundamental piece of the lineup construction puzzle.

Given news, there could be emergent value in Denzel Valentine, Garrett Temple or Javonte Green, depending on how things fall. Of the trio, it would be Valentine who has the most appeal at a 0.84 fantasy points per minute for the season. The prices are right for any of the players to gain ground as a value in the right situation.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.