This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 26
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,900 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) was extremely disappointing in a great matchup against the Timberwolves last game, but we can’t let that affect our decision making tonight. He faces a Pacers team that is 22nd in defensive rating and seventh in pace over the last month, so it looks like a solid bounce-back spot for Doncic. He has been excellent overall this season with 1.64 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active and we should treat his last game as nothing more than a blip on the radar.
Update: Doncic is listed as doubtful. If he sits, Jalen Brunson is the biggest beneficiary in the backcourt. Brunson has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 35.3 minutes per game in three games without Doncic this season.
James Harden ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,300 SG FanDuel) is questionable tonight. He has been questionable for each of Brooklyn’s last two games as well. He played two games ago and then sat out the next game, so we’ll have to wait and see how he is feeling tonight. If he plays, he is a clear top option as the Nets will once again be without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Harden has averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute with a 36 percent usage rate, 12.5 percent rebounding rate and 57.8 percent assist rate in five games without Irving and Durant since joining the Nets. He has played a total of 50 games over the last three seasons without Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Irving or Durant. Harden has averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute with a 40.6 percent usage rate, 10.6 percent rebounding rate and 48.6 percent assist rate in those games. If Harden is active, get him in your lineups.
Trae Young ($9,100 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) is available at a reasonable price point but he doesn’t stand out as a top option in terms of average projections. This makes me interested in rostering him in GPPs because he has a very high ceiling and a favorable matchup against the Warriors. The Warriors have played at the third-fastest pace over the last month and their defensive rating this season increases from 109.4 when Draymond Green is active to 117 when he is inactive. Green missed last night’s game and I am assuming he is questionable tonight. Young has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and 33.2 minutes per game in 10 games since Atlanta’s coaching change.
John Wall ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) stands out as the top option in this price range as he draws an excellent matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota has played at the fourth-fastest pace over the last month while also allowing the fourth most points per 100 possessions. Victor Oladipo was traded to Miami yesterday, so Wall will be the clear top option in the Rockets’ backcourt. Wall has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.7 percent usage rate and 40.3 percent assist rate in 11 games without Oladipo or Harden this season. Christian Wood has been active for four of those games and Wall has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.6 percent usage rate and 43.4 percent assist rate. I don’t actually think that Wood leads to a long-term increase in Wall’s production, but I also don’t think that he hurts him. We could potentially see Wall lose minutes as the season goes along since the Rockets have nothing to play for, but they kept him in the game down nearly 30 points in the fourth quarter against Charlotte on Wednesday so I don’t think that we need to be concerned about his playing time yet.
Michael Carter-Williams ($6,600 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is a glaring value on FanDuel but he is a viable option on DraftKings as well. There is some sticker shock at $6,600, but the Magic traded their top three players yesterday. All three of Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic contributed assists in addition to scoring, so there are a lot of stats available for Carter-Williams to absorb. Terrence Ross is also out tonight, leaving the Magic with eight players. Carter-Williams has played a total of 114 minutes without Vucevic, Gordon or Fournier on the floor this season and has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.3 percent usage rate, 9.6 percent rebounding rate and 27 percent assist rate. In five games without Gordon or Fournier (but with Vucevic), Carter-Williams averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate and 33.5 percent assist rate. He will be facing the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank 30th in defensive rating over the last month (though they have also played at the fourth-slowest pace).
Jordan Poole ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) will most likely get another start tonight for Golden State. Poole has averaged 25.2 minutes per game and 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in four starts without Stephen Curry. He has a 24.1 percent usage rate and 16.6 percent assist rate in those games. Tonight’s matchup against the Hawks is much less appealing than last night’s matchup against Sacramento as the Hawks are fifth in defensive rating and 28th in pace since their coaching change 10 games ago.
Anfernee Simons ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) played 20.1 minutes last night with Gary Trent and Rodney Hood on their way to Toronto. Norman Powell could be active tonight, but Damian Lillard is out so there should still be minutes available for Simons. If Powell plays, I expect that we get 22 to 25 minutes from Simons. If Powell is out, however, we could see Simons get 30-plus minutes of action with the Blazers’ backcourt severely undermanned. He has averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute and 22.4 minutes per game in eight total games without Lillard and with McCollum since the start of last season.
Injury Note: Jimmy Butler traveled with Miami but we don’t know if he will play tonight. Goran Dragic didn’t travel, so he is out. If Butler misses the game, we should see a similar rotation to last night where Kendrick Nunn played 33.9 minutes, Tyler Herro played 35.3 minutes off the bench and Gabe Vincent played 26.8 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, John Wall, Michael Carter-Williams, Jalen Brunson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall, Michael Carter-Williams, Jalen Brunson
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Shooting Guard
C.J. McCollum ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) had a monster game last night against the Heat. Tonight, he takes on a short-handed Orlando team. McCollum played 37.7 minutes last night and about 38 minutes in Portland’s previous game so he is clearly no longer on a minutes restriction. There is a non-zero chance he rests on the second half of a back-to-back, but I haven’t heard anything about that happening so I am assuming he will play his normal minutes tonight. He has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.5 percent usage rate and 25.2 percent assist rate in 19 games played alongside Lillard this season. He offers immense upside at a shooting guard position that doesn’t have a ton of options at the top.
Update: Lillard is out tonight. McCollum has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.2 percent usage rate and 36.3 percent assist rate in eight games without Lillard since the start of last season. Powell may be available to make his debut tonight but, even if he is, McCollum should see a substantial bump in his production.
Collin Sexton ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) missed Cleveland’s last game and I am considering him questionable for tonight. If he does play, he is a reasonable mid-range option thanks to the amount of minutes that he plays. Sexton has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.2 percent usage rate and 37.7 minutes per game in 16 games played without Andre Drummond and with Darius Garland this season. Sexton has a relatively difficult matchup against the Lakers, but it is worth noting that their defense has suffered in the four games they have played without Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is difficult to trust, even with Curry sidelined, because he is still a scoring dependent player who isn’t a particularly efficient scorer. His ceiling certainly increases, however, as he has a 27.4 percent usage rate in six games without Curry this season compared to 22.9 percent in 39 games with Curry active. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in the games with Curry and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in the games without him. I would be cautious reading too much into the per-minute production in the games that Curry has missed, however, because Wiggins has shot 50 percent from three in those games compared to 38.8 percent for the season. Ultimately, he is a high-upside option at a reasonable price tag who also has a relatively low floor.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is likely to start again tonight with Lonzo Ball doubtful. Alexander-Walker has started five games in place of Ball this season. He has averaged 30.3 minutes per game and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in those games with a 23.8 percent usage rate. He is scoring dependent as he has only contributed a 12.2 percent assist rate, but he is inexpensive for the playing time and scoring opportunities that we can expect.
Dwayne Bacon ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) is one of the eight players available for the Magic tonight. Bacon isn’t thought of as an exciting fantasy option, but he has actually averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate in 210 minutes without Vucevic, Fournier or Gordon on the floor this season. He has made nine starts without Fournier and Gordon and has averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.6 percent usage rate. The additional absence of Vucevic and Ross will most likely filter more usage to Bacon, however, and he will have an opportunity to outperform his relatively inexpensive price tag. Of the eight players available for Orlando, Bacon is one of the most likely to take on substantial usage. The only available players with a higher usage rate than Bacon this season are Carter-Williams and Mo Bamba.
Eric Bledsoe ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) has been extremely bad at producing fantasy points lately, but he is also inexpensive and should see solidified playing time with Ball out. Bledsoe has only averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over 30.1 minutes per game in 12 games played during the last month. He has a 15.1 percent usage rate and 17.4 percent assist rate and has seemingly been one of the players most impacted by Zion Williamson’s increased usage and assist opportunities. Still, Bledsoe has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and he has been a productive fantasy producer throughout his career. The presence of so many other capable scorers, playmakers and rebounders on this team certainly hurts his average production but he still has the talent to significantly outperform this salary any given night.
Chasson Randle ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) has averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute with a 15.1 percent usage rate and 21.2 percent assist rate in 103 minutes without Fournier, Vucevic or Gordon on the floor this season. We can’t get too excited about his average production this season, but there will be plenty of opportunities available tonight with Orlando’s top four scoring options either no longer on the team or inactive tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dwayne Bacon
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dwayne Bacon, Sterling Brown
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Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) is questionable tonight after missing last night’s game. If he plays, he will be an appealing pay up option at a relatively weak small forward position since there is an abundance of value on this slate. Butler has been excellent this season, averaging 1.37 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.2 percent usage rate, 13.8 percent rebounding rate and 35 percent assist rate in 26 games played with Bam Adebayo active. The Hornets are 20th in defensive rating and ninth in pace over the last month. If Butler sits, Trevor Ariza ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,500 PF FanDuel) becomes a viable value option as he started and played 33 minutes yesterday against Portland.
Brandon Ingram ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) has a difficult matchup against a Denver team that is 22nd in pace and 15th in defensive rating over the last month. Ingram has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.1 percent usage rate and 19.0 percent assist rate in five games without Ball this season. Those numbers are in line with his season long averages so Ball’s absence isn’t likely to provide much of a bump for Ingram, but he is always a high upside option at a thin position.
Kyle Kuzma ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) played 41.7 minutes against the Sixers last night and he has now averaged 36.5 minutes per game in four games without James or Davis. Kuzma has a 26.6 percent usage rate, 15.1 percent rebounding rate and 18.4 percent assist rate in those games while averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.
Danuel House ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) only played 24.7 minutes against the Hornets on Wednesday, but he lost the fourth quarter to a blowout. He played about 18 minutes in the first half and I expect that we get at least 33 or 34 minutes from House tonight if the game is competitive. With Oladipo no longer on the team and Kevin Porter Jr. doubtful, there are plenty of minutes available for House. He has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games without Oladipo or Harden and with Wall active this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) should benefit if Doncic is out tonight. He has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 32.4 minutes per game in 11 games without Doncic and with Porzingis since the start of last season. He has a 25.8 percent usage rate and 14.3 percent assist rate in those games compared to a 20 percent usage rate and 8.1 percent assist rate when both players are active. Hardaway is more expensive than I anticipated, but he still offers some value here at a weak position.
Sterling Brown ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 SG FanDuel) should also benefit from Oladipo and Porter (most likely) not being active tonight. Brown has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games without Oladipo or Harden and with Wall active. He only has a 13.3 percent usage rate, but he has contributed peripherals with 5.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game in those games as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler/Trevor Ariza, Kyle Kuzma, Tim Hardaway, Sterling Brown
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Kuzma, Danuel House, Tim Hardaway
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) has a relatively difficult matchup against the Celtics, but he is one of the highest0projected players on the slate. It shouldn’t be overly difficult to find a way to fit Giannis into lineups since there is a ton of value tonight. With Doncic doubtful and Lillard out, there are also fewer pay up options than expected (and James Harden could also miss tonight’s game). Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate, 17.5 percent rebounding rate and 30.6 percent assist rate in 31 games played with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday active this season.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in 11 games without Doncic since the start of last season. He has averaged 26.5 points, 11.9 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game in those games. He is obviously priced for Doncic to be active tonight, making him one of the top values on the slate if Doncic misses the game as expected.
Chuma Okeke ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is likely to play a lot of minutes tonight with Orlando shorthanded and clearly not committed to winning games at this point in the season. Okeke has been priced up a bit, however, so there is some downside here. He has only averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute in 209 minutes without Gordon, Fournier or Vucevic on the floor this season. He has an 11.9 percent usage rate over that sample, so there is no guarantee that is productive tonight. Still, there will be plenty of stats to go around and he should be on the floor for most of the game so he carries some appeal.
K.J. Martin ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) played 25.8 minutes off the bench against the Hornets on Wednesday. I expect similar playing time tonight if Porter is unable to play. Martin has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and has an excellent matchup against the Timberwolves.
Maxi Kleber ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) doesn’t see much of a bump in production without Doncic, but he has averaged 30.8 minutes per game over the last month and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games without Doncic and with Porzingis over the last two seasons. The Pacers have a big frontcourt with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, so it should be easy for Kleber and Porzingis to play a lot of minutes alongside each other. Kleber offers some value on DraftKings but is especially appealing on FanDuel.
Khem Birch ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) is one of the least expensive Orlando players tonight despite being one of the most productive players on a per-minute basis. Birch leads the team with 270 minutes played without any of Gordon, Fournier or Vucevic on the floor and he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. He only has a 14.2 percent usage rate, but he has also contributed a 14 percent rebounding rate that is higher than everyone except Bamba. Birch has been used at power forward and at center this season, which means it should be easy for him to play substantial minutes tonight for the short-handed Magic.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Khem Birch
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Khem Birch, Maxi Kleber
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/26/2021″ team=”Nuggets”]
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is almost always the top pay up option amongst centers and that is the case again tonight. Jokic leads the Nuggets in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate this season. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 35.7 minutes per game and he gets to face a Pelicans team that is 23rd in defensive rating and 12th in pace over the last month. All of that said, center is by far the deepest position on the slate so there is substantial opportunity cost to rostering Jokic. Given all of the value at other positions, however, I think Jokic will still be relatively easy to fit into lineups even with the depth of the position.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.7 percent usage rate, 14.3 percent rebounding rate and 19.8 percent assist rate in 11 games without D’Angelo Russell or Malik Beasley this season. He has a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are eighth in pace and 25th in defensive rating over the last month. While everything looks good for Towns, it will be extremely difficult to prioritize him over Jokic since they are so close in salary. Keep an eye on ownership between the two but, assuming there isn’t a massive gap, Jokic gets the edge for me.
Christian Wood ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) played 29.2 minutes in three quarters of the Rockets’ blowout loss to the Hornets on Wednesday. If tonight’s game against the Timberwolves is competitive, Wood is likely to play 34-plus minutes. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 22 games overall this season. He is one of the best mid-range center options available.
Bam Adebayo ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will either look like a good option or a great option depending on the status of Jimmy Butler. Adebayo has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.2 percent usage rate, 14.7 percent rebounding rate and 32.6 percent assist rate in 13 games without Butler this season. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.5 percent usage rate, 16.2 percent rebounding rate and 25.8 percent assist rate in 26 games with Butler active. While the average production isn’t much different, the increase in usage rate and assist rate suggests that Adebayo has a much higher ceiling if Butler is sidelined.
Jarrett Allen ($7,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is an interesting option in tournaments tonight. JaVale McGee was traded yesterday so he once again won’t have a true back-up center tonight. He played 34.5 minutes without McGee last game and has averaged 32.4 minutes per game in 18 starts without Drummond since joining the Cavs. Allen has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in those starts. There are better point-per-dollar options at center but Allen has enough upside to be used as a contrarian piece in tournaments.
Clint Capela ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is similar to Allen in that there are better point-per-dollar options but he has the ability to break a slate. Capela’s playing time has been the issue this season and it hasn’t changed with the new coach. He has only averaged 27.6 minutes per game in seven games since the coaching change. He has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in those games, however, and 1.37 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. Just because Capela averages 28 minutes per game doesn’t mean he will never have a 32 or 33 minute game and, whenever he does, he is likely to post a massive game. Players like Capela who have point-per-minute volatility and playing time volatility make for extremely tempting tournament options whenever they aren’t getting much ownership.
Montrezl Harrell ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) struggled against the 76ers last night but he still played between 32 and 33 minutes despite Marc Gasol’s return to the lineup. Harrell has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 22 games without Davis this season. He is expensive enough now that I don’t anticipate targeting him in cash games, but he is another mid-range center that offers substantial upside in tournaments.
Robert Williams ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has played well recently and has seen increased playing time. He was still scary to roster in DFS, however, because he had Daniel Theis and/or Tristan Thompson taking minutes from him. That won’t be the case tonight as Thompson is out again and Theis is no longer on the team. Williams has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has averaged 21.1 minutes per game in 12 games over the last month. Semi Ojeleye is also out tonight which, while it doesn’t sound important, actually should solidify playing time for Williams because Ojeleye has been used to defend Giannis at times in the past and would be the most likely player to “unexpectedly” steal minutes tonight. I expect that we get at least 24 to 26 minutes from Williams tonight and there is room for more.
Deandre Ayton ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games after failing to reach 30 minutes in eight or nine consecutive games previously. Ayton has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 30 minutes per game overall this season in 38 games played with Paul and Devin Booker active. Ayton has a relatively high ceiling for his salary, but I still prefer most of the other centers listed so far if you can find the money because they offer more per-minute production and/or more playing time.
James Wiseman ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) was unbelievably bad in a great matchup against the Kings last night. The positive takeaway is that he played 29.4 minutes and it seems safe to expect 26 to 30 minutes per game now that he is the Warriors’ starting center. Wiseman has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season. He would be more useful on other slates that didn’t have value at every position and a loaded center position, but he is still a decent point-per-dollar option tonight.
Mo Bamba ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 182 minutes without Vucevic, Gordon or Fournier on the floor this season. Overall, Bamba has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 224 minutes this season. Bamba’s playing time is a little difficult to predict since the Magic do have several potential centers available and he has never played more than 26 minutes in an NBA game but, if he starts, I will expect about 24-plus minutes from him. If he comes off the bench, I would lower my expectations to about 20 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Christian Wood, Bam Adebayo (better if Butler is out), Robert Williams, Mo Bamba (better if starting)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Christian Wood, Bam Adebayo, Robert Williams, James Wiseman
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