Monday, Dec. 9 presents an interesting nine-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Clint Capela, Donovan Mitchell and more.
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Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Don’t forget to check out the NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5 p.m. EST featuring Fast Eddie Fear and Your Ol’ Pal EMac as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on LeBron James, Bradley Beal, Montrezl Harrell, injury news and analysis.
NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Paul George: Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers
DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $8,800, Yahoo $36 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 29.0%, FanDuel 20.1% Yahoo Fantasy 25.0%
Yesterday, the Clippers waxed the Wizards in Washington. That means this is a back-to-back so Kawhi Leonard will almost assuredly be resting as he has not played on consecutive days since his days as a Spur. We know that Paul George is very familiar with the shooting background at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
When George is on the court without Leonard, his usage ticks up from 26.9 to 31.8, his rebound rate goes up by 1.7% and his assist percentage increases by 4.6. From a fantasy perspective, we should see George approach 1.5 fantasy points per minute without Leonard.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Lonzo Ball: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Detroit Pistons
DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $6,000, Yahoo $19 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 29.6%, FanDuel 28.2% Yahoo Fantasy 24.8%
Truthfully, I was a little surprised that Lonzo Ball came in as popular as he did with our initial ownership run. With 18 teams in action, I suspect it will dip throughout the day as other options pop. This is a nice reminder that often times perfectly good plays are lost in the mad scramble before tip-off. Things are lining up for this to be the case with Ball today.
While Detroit is in the bottom third of the league from a pace perspective, they are in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions. Ideally gamers are going to look at the recent production history from Lonzo and ultimately be turned off when there are “cheaper” options that arise throughout the day. Do not be one of those people.
While we never now exactly what is going on in the mind of coach Alvin Gentry, it does seem that he is looking to stagger the minutes between Ball and Jrue Holiday now that Ball is healthy and ready to assume a more prominent role.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $5,700, Yahoo $17 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 24.6%, FanDuel 8.1% Yahoo Fantasy 19.8%
This has been a rough season for Bogdan Bogdanovich who was expected to step up in the absence of De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley. Injury and ineffectiveness have ended up limiting his minutes and disappointing his DFS backers. The price on DraftKings should pull people into what I think is a trap.
Over his last four games, Bogdanovich is averaging just over 18 fantasy points in 25 minutes per contest. It is my opinion that he does not seem to be fully healthy. Ideally, the masses gather here and I move on to a different player such as Lonzo Ball.
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
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With the incredibly user-friendly and flexible rules creation feature on FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
Today, we will look at how to use the “random” feature and how it impacts projections. By going into the “Advanced Options > General Settings” we can set a global Randomness that will be applied to all players. In this case we will use 15%. This means that for each individual lineup that is produced by FantasyCruncher, each player will have their baseline projection randomized within a +/- 15% range.
So if our player had a projection of 20 points, FantasyCruncher would assign a range projection of 17-23 points. Again, this will occur with each different lineup that is created and with each player.
For those of you with FC Pro, you have a second option. The “Normal Dist Randomness” calculation will actually follow a standard deviation bell curve approach. This keeps the variations in a more realistic set of parameters. This can also be set by each play via the data upload process.
With 18 teams in action, we should have plenty of options to help us differentiate tonight. Do not by shy about playing a popular play or three.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
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