NBA DFS Picks: The NBA Slate Starter for DraftKings + FanDuel

If you didn’t survive the NFL blood bath that was Week 2, there are two million reasons to cheer up on DraftKings and FanDuel today. A million-dollar NBA contest on each site with $200,000 to first? That’s the medicine I’m in need of, so let’s get to work. This is your Slate Starter for tonight’s Game 3 Showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, where we go over some of the best NBA DFS picks to build around..

NBA DFS Picks: NBA Slate Starter | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 22

A Dose of Dozier?

If you missed Game 2 on Sunday, here’s its most stunning development: Mike Malone played P.J. Dozier the entire fourth quarter of a close game. I want you to re-read that sentence. Let it sink in. Try to understand it. I suppose Dozier is a defensive specialist of sorts, but he played all of 12 total minutes in the Clippers series (10 in garbage time of a blowout loss in Game 1). And he somehow re-enters the rotation in the Western Conference Finals and plays exclusively in crunch time? I’m baffled.

But here’s the thing: Dozier is only $1,400 on DraftKings, which makes him a de facto talking point on this slate. Optimizers and box score chasers alike are going to see the 12 and 14 minutes from Games 1 and 2 and plug him in as a good play. I’m not calling it “good” whatsoever, but we are are looking for any/all salary savers to reach the four studs eating up all of the fantasy production in this series. So with that to consider, he’s the cheapest play by far who will receive any court time. Plus, you would need next-to-nothing from him at that price. Monte Morris entered the optimal in Game 2, putting up only 12.25 at $3,000, so anything double digits by Dozier makes him enticing.

I see this working out one of two ways. Either Mike Malone will sprinkle Dozier’s 15-18 minutes around this time, or he doesn’t play him at all. My gut says the latter is more likely, so if he’s going to be highly-owned I’ll simply go elsewhere. Be sure to check out Awesemo’s ownership projections leading up to lock, as nailing down these types of punt plays are the key to winning Showdown slates in this series (no one needs to be told “play Anthony Davis and LeBron James“).

Oh Captain, My Captain

Game 1’s optimal Captain play on DraftKings was Davis. Game 2’s was Nikola Jokic. Dare I say Game 3 will be LeBron’s turn?

I don’t think it works like that, but I think there’s a trend in this series that should not be ignored: Slam only the studs in the Captain spot. Most slates have a plethora of mid-range value that could spike a 40-to-50-point upside and provide you enough salary relief to play more of the expensive players together. But with 61.7% of the total usage flowing through James and Davis for the Lakers, and 59.9% of it coming from Jokic and Jamal Murray for the Nuggets, there’s not a lot of opportunity left for anyone else to get to 40 fantasy points. Plus, there are multiple pieces of cheap value that project better than $7,600 Michael Porter, the next-highest-priced player outside of the four studs.

I won’t be building 150 lineups today, but even if I were, I don’t think I’d have any captain exposure outside of the top four. Trying to nail down the top-producing stud is the optimal route to go on most NBA Showdown slates, but especially this one. That’s because a 50-fantasy-point game by one of the studs is a virtual certainly and a 40-fantasy-point game by anyone else would be such an outlier.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups

Game 1’s DraftKings optimal lineup had five Lakers and one Nugget, and Game 2’s competitive matchup saw three players from each side. I still don’t see the prices adjusted enough — or the game being Denver-dominant enough — to consider four Nuggets in a lineup. Avoiding that build feels like a solid edge on this slate.

I haven’t addressed FanDuel yet, but that’s because it’s rather clear cut. Anything that isn’t Stud-Stud-Murray in the MVP-All-Star-Pro slots will be contrarian. Finding any logical route you can to get off that build is the only way to avoid a massive split of first prize.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.