The NBA playoffs are underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.
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NBA DFS Switch And Hedge | Aug. 26
Damian Lillard Out With A Strained Knee
I doubt we will see Lillard play again this season. Even if the Blazers extend the series past tonight, which I don’t think happens, he likely is out beyond today. As is, Portland is a 13.5-point underdog and the Lakers come into today with a 3-1 series lead. Lillard played really well down the stretch of the regular season, but it was crazy to think this Blazers’ team stood a legitimate chance to beat the Lakers in a best-of-seven series. Los Angeles has run the Blazers off the court since Game 1.
As for NBA DFS, there are a couple of players that stand out without Lillard. For value, I assume Gary Trent Jr. will enter the starting lineup. Variance is a friend of the Blazers in this spot, and if they hope to pull an upset, then they will have to shoot a hefty amount of 3’s. Trent is one of the top shooters on the team. I also expect to see a heavy dose of C.J. McCollum. With Lillard off the court this season, McCollum has a 33.9% usage rating and scores 45.29 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
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The Case For Stacking Thunder-Rockets
Looking at the spread for these games, one thing becomes apparent: We should expect blowouts. With the Lakers favored by 13.5 and the Bucks favored by 14, I expect fourth quarter garbage time. What’s nice about the Thunder-Rockets game is that we can expect a tight game for 48 minutes. The series is tied at two and the spread is just 3 points. By rostering this game heavily in NBA DFS, we can avoid some of the blowout concern with the other two spots.
Since I expect a close game, James Harden is my favorite player to pay up for on the slate. I view him as a safer play than Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James or Anthony Davis, and Harden also has a higher ceiling. There is no reason for the Bucks or Lakers to push their core players, but Harden should play over 40 minutes today. Not only should he play a hefty workload, we can anticipate a usage rating around 40% since Russell Westbrook remains out because of a quad injury.
Blowout Punts
With expected one-sided games as mentioned above, I think it’s OK to go dumpster diving and look for a couple value plays that might benefit from garbage time. These aren’t players I want to invest much money in, but taking a stab or two in a NBA DFS GPP on some cheap guys that might get extra run due to game script isn’t the worst strategy in the world.
For the Magic, Khem Birch is worth rostering if Aaron Gordon is out. Gordon is currently questionable, and Birch is playing around 18 minutes without Gordon. The nice part of rostering Birch is that he’s also playing in garbage time. In one-sided games in the bubble, we have seen Birch stretched to play as much as 27 minutes.
From the same game, Donte DiVincenzo is OK to get some exposure to. An underrated fantasy producer, he actually averaged over 20 DraftKings points while coming off the bench in the regular season. DiVincenzo did this while playing just 21 minutes per game. With the way the Bucks handle their rotations, I have little doubt the starters will come out early if the game gets out of hand. This could bode well for DiVincenzo. These types of plays are risky, but on a three-game slate where it’s tough to differentiate, the upside is within the realm of possibility.
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