Another medium sized six-game NBA slate for us to tackle tonight. This slate is filled with studs, so finding value will be critical. Stay up to date on Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight. LeBron James is probably the most notable name on the injury report. These plays below are driven by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Robert Williams: $6,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel
54.9% DraftKings Boom/50.8% FanDuel Boom
Leading the slate in our Boom/Bust Tool on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the highest boom percentage is Robert Williams. He is also leading the slate as the highest-owned player in our ownership projections for both sites. The main attraction to this play is the Celtics will be without Al Hoford tonight. In nine games without Horford this season, Williams is averaging a double-double with 12.1 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. He is also playing 34.2 minutes per game during that time which is very high for Williams.
The Timberwolves have been one of the hottest teams since the All-Star Break and they rank seventh in least amount of points allowed in the paint this season. They have been solid defensively, but they still play at the fastest pace in the league which helps Williams get easy dunks in transition. If he can stay out of foul trouble against Karl-Anthony Towns, expect a big day from Williams. He will be popular, but Awesemo projects Williams to be the best value play on DraftKings and FanDuel on the slate tonight.
Boom: Joel Embiid: $11,400 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel
28.4% DraftKings Boom/33.2% FanDuel Boom
This slate is absolutely loaded with high usage and studs players. Joel Embiid is the second place guy as of right now. He is second to Luka Doncic in usage rate per game this season. He is averaging a career-high 29.8 points per game, which is also second to LeBron James. The one stat Embiid is leading is free throw attempts with 11.8 per game. He has taken a brief step back with James Harden on the 76ers, but Embiid still has the highest boom percentage in our Boom/Bust Tool in the upper pricing tier.
The Suns are a tough matchup as they continue to be very strong defensively which has led them to their league-best 60-14 record. They rank third in defensive rating, but do play at a relatively fast pace which allows their games to get a higher total. Deandre Ayton has been a great defender, however Embiid has torched Ayton in his career. They have played against each other five times, and Embiid is averaging 36.4 points and 14.4 rebounds per game while shooting 53.8% from the field. Sneaky stat that provides a huge ceiling.
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Boom: Patrick Beverley: $4,600 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel
32.6% DraftKings Boom/28.5% FanDuel Boom
As I previously mentioned the Timberwolves have been cooking since the All-Star Break with a record of 12-4. However, tonight presents a tough matchup on the road against the Celtics. The Celtics lead the league in defensive rating, allowing a league-best 103.8 points per game. The Timberwolves are six-point road underdogs implied for only 111.75 points. Patrick Beverley is a cheap way to get exposure to the Timberwolves as he Awesemo has him projected to be in the top four on both sites in terms of value.
Over the last six games, Beverley is averaging 26.2 DraftKings points per game, despite having one game where he only finished with 8.25 DraftKings points as he was ejected after playing 10 minutes. The salary doesn’t quite make sense seeing as though he is playing as well as most of the Timberwolves starters. He is playing just as many minutes as D’Angelo Russell, if not more. He is a very scrappy player that can fill up the stat sheet and may have to score more with Malik Beasley out. Beverley is a fantastic salary saver on this slate.
Bust: Kyrie Irving: $10,500 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel
51.0% DraftKings Bust/62.0% FanDuel Bust
It worked yesterday, so let’s go right back to the fade Kyrie Irving well. The salary since last night came down on DraftKings, but went up on FanDuel. It is still way too high on both sites, despite how well Irving has been playing lately. Especially on this slate where there are so many more better options in the higher pricing tier, fading Irving makes way too much sense. Last night the Nets blew out the Heat, resulting in only 30 minutes for Irving. He had 11 points and 29 DraftKings points while shooting 36.4% from the field.
The matchup against the Hornets is the scary part to this fade. They continue to rank in the top five of pace this season as they have allowed 114.5 points per game. This game features the highest total on the slate by far at 238.5 points as the Nets are implied to score a slate-high 122 points. This will be Irving’s second time playing on a back-to-back this season. In the previous time, he only had 24.25 DraftKings while playing 37 minutes against the Kings. Irving has a C value on DraftKings and D on FanDuel in our Fantasy Basketball Rankings.
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View our DraftKings NBA ownership projections, our Yahoo! ownership and our FanDuel NBA ownership projections. We also have FanDuel rankings, Yahoo! ownership rankings and DraftKings ownership rankings for today's slate. Check out our NBA daily fantasy rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own basketball DFS projections. Looking for more NBA DFS and the top NBA DFS picks for today? Our best DFS NBA projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks.
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