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NBA Fantasy: Boom Bust Tool Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Today 4/30




Tonight's NBA DFS picks, news, notes and lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as look at the day's betting picks & player props 5/8/21.

The Nets are once again featured heavily on the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool. A day after Kevin Durant was a chalk play on FanDuel and DraftKings with Kyrie Irving, we have the inverse situation. Irving is returning to action tonight while Durant is getting the night off. The projections love Kyrie as a result.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | April 30

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

Kyrie Irving vs. Trail Blazers: $9,400 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel

24.7% DraftKings Boom/27.5% FanDuel Boom

Irving is a must roster in cash games tonight. James Harden is likely out for the rest of the regular season, and with Durant resting, it’s Irving’s turn to carry the offense again. He played poorly in his last outing, but that was a game where Durant was active and without restrictions. Irving scored over 50 DraftKings points in the three previous games. He could also benefit from the having last night off. Irving is going to need that extra rest because he carries a 34.1% usage rate and scores 54.99 DraftKings points per 36 minutes when Harden and Durant are off the court. He also draws one of the best matchups possible since Damian Lillard is one of the weakest individual defenders in the NBA by defensive real plus/minus, and Portland ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections currently have Irving No. 3 overall at 50.09 points.

De’Anthony Melton vs. Magic: $3,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel

28.2% DraftKings Boom/29.5% FanDuel Boom

Melton is one of the top value plays on the slate, and he has the best boom rating of anybody on DraftKings. Jaren Jackson Jr. is resting tonight, while Grayson Allen is doubtful to play, which opens up extra playing time for Melton. He probably will not start or play 30 minutes, but he doesn’t have to at his current salary. Melton averages over a fantasy point per minute, so even getting him to 25 minutes makes him likely to wind up as one of the best points-per-dollar plays of the day. He could also see extended minutes in a blowout. Memphis is favored by 12.5 points over the Magic, and Melton would likely get some garbage time run if the game becomes one-sided.

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Damian Lillard vs. Nets: $9,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel

15% DraftKings Boom/38.1% FanDuel Boom

Lillard is a viable play on both sites, but he’s a particularly strong play on FanDuel. His upside has gotten capped since C.J. McCollum came back from an extended absence. This is normally a concern, but Lillard’s price has dipped so far on FanDuel that he does not need a crazy ceiling game to pay off his price tag. He also has correlation with Lillard in the same tournament lineups as Irving. The 241.5 total for this game is by far the highest on the slate, which opens up the opportunity for a fast-paced game with Lillard and Irving going back and forth trading buckets.

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Darius Garland vs. Wizards: $8,000 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel

71.1% DraftKings Bust/59.7% FanDuel Bust

Garland is putting up some massive games with Collin Sexton out, but his price has caught up to him. The matchup against the Wizards is great, but on FanDuel he costs nearly the exact same as Lillard. There is also the issue of Sexton potentially returning. He is upgraded to questionable for tonight, and if he’s back in the lineup, Garland will take a massive usage hit. This is a bit of a moot point, though, because Garland is a bit overpriced even if Sexton remains out.

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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