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NBA Switch And Hedge: After His Big Day, Klay Thompson May Be Due For More Positive Regression Vs The Pelicans

Chris Spags

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Klay Thompson Shares message with Golden State Warriors teammates

It’s Wednesday and we’ve got some games with really gaudy totals, a Nuggets team in a spot against Chicago that might be too good for them not to run away with it, and some really big injuries that greatly affect the value on this slate. I’m going to walk you through all of the games today in the hopes of helping you find some under the radar spots and some guys you’re going to need to have in your lineups to have a shot to win. Chris Paul and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s stupid foul prone ass killed what was a nice night of underowned value and passable chalk for me yesterday but today I am bound and determined to close those leaks and get us all ahead of the competition.

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Detroit Pistons (106.8 implied points) at Brooklyn Nets (108.8 implied points)

-The Pistons are on a back to back after a tight road loss last night in Boston. Andre Drummond is projected to be the highest owned player on this side and it would be a nice night for him to get back on track versus the famously popular “Centers Vs The Nets” spot that’s looked a little less porous this year but still has been mostly profitable

Blake Griffin might be the guy I’m more interested in though with no defensive matchup of note for him on the other side. Blake hasn’t flashed the assist upside he did in the early part of the year. He put up 45 fantasy points vs these Nets earlier this year and while the expected slightly down pace matchup won’t offer him an easy path to smashing value, he definitely should be considered tonight

Reggie Jackson had a hideous home-and-home versus Boston and a matchup versus a far less attentive D’Angelo Russell may be enough to get him on track. Reggie seems due for some positive regression after shooting 36% on the year thus far. Ditto their other Reggie, Reggie Bullock, shooting 35.1% from the floor and 25.9% from three thus far

Stanley Johnson’s minutes have come up a bit since Luke Kennard went out and it’s possible he could get going at very cheap at some point. “Get going” is all relative since it’s a low-usage role but Johnson does have some for peripherals vs a Nets team who turns it over 16.6 times per game

D’Angelo Russell is expected to be the chalkiest player on the Nets side and if that is the case I’d be slightly more interested in going back Caris LeVert’s way after his first dud of the season versus New York. Levert dropped 40 fantasy points on 10-for-18 shooting versus these Pistons a few weeks back (as well as a comparable preseason game) and he hasn’t lost minutes to the returning Rondae Hollis-Jefferson thus far. Hollis-Jefferson has also been decent since his return but he likely won’t see the minutes unless the game gets out of hand or one of Joe Harris or Jared Dudley get their time cut further

Spencer Dinwiddie has been spiteful in every matchup versus Detroit since leaving the Pistons, dropping 37 fantasy points on them in 32 minutes earlier this year and games of 36 and 34 fantasy points when he saw regular minutes last season. With him averaging about 27 minutes per game, he can definitely hit value if he brings that motivation again

Allen Crabbe’s minutes have also been trickling up and he is definitely due for some positive regression after shooting 27% from the floor and 31% from three thus far. You can’t trust him and this isn’t a hospitable three point matchup with the Pistons giving up just a 31.7% percentage to opponents but he is VERY due for something to fall

 

Indiana Pacers (107.8 implied points) at New York Knicks (101.8 implied points)

-This could end up an ugly matchup with the road Pacers favored by 6 points at time of writing. This game has the lowest adjusted pace on the slate and the Pacers have held teams to 43.2% from the floor, not that the Knicks need that since they’re already shooting a slate worst 43.1% from the floor

Victor Oladipo may well wreak havoc versus the sloppy and inexperienced backcourt the Knicks have trotted out but it’s safe to question his value if the game doesn’t stay close, particularly with his price on the higher end of where it should be

Myles Turner might be able to get something going versus the inexperienced starting group the Knicks have trotted out recently. I might be more interested in Domantas Sabonis getting Enes Kanter in the new Knicks bench unit though. Kanter can gobble up boards but Sabonis is a much smarter player who could outmaneuver him in David Fizdale’s chess matchups that have made the Knicks more competitive their last few outings

Darren Collison is coming off a couple of nice outings but he’s just as likely to recede into the background. I wouldn’t mind him at low ownership with his price though

Tim Hardaway is the bane of my existence because I love Damyean Dotson and think he would be a far better version of Hardway if given the shot given how he actually plays D, rebounds, and passes the ball instead of relentlessly chucking. But Hardaway is getting 20 shots a game and still has upside because he only hits 41.8% of them. He has been getting banged up in recent games though so don’t be surprised if one of these times he doesn’t come back in with his reckless drives and lack of grace

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Noah Vonleh has some interest for me given his price and the amount of minutes he’s gotten lately. It won’t be easy versus this Pacers team but he should match up well

Frank Ntilikina did more of everything in his last outing and he is again a viable play at $4,100 on DK. You won’t love the matchup but it’s not a lot of upside needed for him to be a great asset to your lineup

Enes Kanter wreaked havoc against the Nets off the bench and I’m curious to see how his matchup versus Sabonis shakes out. He’s still too high priced to show enough upside in this role but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him perform similarly

 

Denver Nuggets (115.3 implied points) at Chicago Bulls (107.3 implied points)

Nikola Jokic seems like he’s in a gigantic smash spot versus this Bulls team who’ll have no answer at all to literally any facet of his game. The question is if the Bulls can stay competitive enough to be viable and I’m not sure that’s the case. I’m comfortable playing Jokic and there’s real triple double upside here but know that it could end up a Paul Millsap day or one where the guards take over and that may be enough to put Chicago away. Millsap got back on track versus New Orleans and it did somewhat limit Jokic’s

Gary Harris and Jamal Murray both look super appealing as well and you can play both of them together as long as the game stays competitive enough, as exhibited last time out versus New Orleans. Chicago lets teams gun threes and rip rebounds so there’s tons of extra value to find

Malik Beasley seemingly took Torrey Craig’s role last time out and the minutes are appealing even though his production per minute is not

Zach LaVine is going to have to score an ungodly amount to keep the Bulls competitive here but he’s also likely to be a key focus of Denver’s surprisingly vicious defense that has limited teams to 105.2 points per game despite their 119.9 output. I like LaVine but he’s going to have to really bring it

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Jabari Parker is slated to move into the starting lineup and while normally I don’t love him on the court with LaVine, if LaVine is keyed on defensively that could actually be a big help to Jabari. Parker gets a B in points and A in value from Awesemo today

Wendell Carter Jr. has been rolling lately and this isn’t really the spot for him but at his price, I’m willing to give it a shot. Ditto Cam Payne who’s going to need to score a little today if the Bulls do keep it close

-It might be wiser to think about blowout builds where Ryan Arcidiacono or Antonio Blakeney or Monte Morris on the Nuggets’ side may thrive. The Bulls can keep it close, and have versus far superior teams before at home, but some exposure could make sense

 

Utah Jazz (112.8 implied points) at Minnesota Timberwolves (109.8 implied points)

-The line here is likely to move further as news of Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler sit out with Butler rumored to possibly be taking an extend absence from the team and Andrew Wiggins also a game-time decision

Rudy Gobert has destroyed everything in his path lately and there’s nothing on the Wolves to stop him. I’d be confident playing him even though he does seem due for some regression with how out of his mind he’s been playing

Ricky Rubio played out of his mind last year versus his former team in Minnesota with games of 44.25, 30.25, and 42.25 (along with one in which he was limited to 20 minutes due to injury which did not go as well). The play here makes sense, particularly with what’s likely to be Tyus Jones or Derrick Rose defense on the other side

Donovan Mitchell has only had one good game this year and he’ll either see one of the above guys or Josh Okobie, nothing to fear on his end. The scorers like Mitchell and Joe Ingles are going to be able to get all the shots they want and the only thing preventing them from hitting value is an off night or blowout

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-This could also be a decent Derrick Favors night if he plays but that’s not one I’d think you want to bank on with how Gobert has been rolling

-With Butler and Teague out (and especially if Wiggins is too), Derrick Rose is pretty close to a must-play status to me with usage likely off the charts and Josh Okogie would be also very compelling. Tyus Jones a little less so but that depends on if he somehow picked up a start

Karl-Anthony Towns has looked more himself finally, perhaps armed with the knowledge that Butler is on his way out, he can fully assert himself. But this is an ugly matchup to do so and if Towns picks up a ton of ownership, I would mitigate my exposure to him just knowing how badly he can falter. These aren’t the Lakers and Javale McGee on the other side

 

New Orleans Pelicans (112.8 implied points) at Golden State Warriors (123.8 implied points)

-This game should go at the highest pace of the night and the availability of Anthony Davis, currently questionable, is key to the Pelicans having any shot to survive. Davis would be in play for me if active given the 65+ point upside he’s shown versus Golden State in the past, though he can falter

Nikola Mirotic will need to bring his scoring to the table for the Pelicans to stay alive. Ditto Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle and even possibly E’Twaun Moore. I think all of these guys are in play tonight but only if AD is active because realistically they’re going to get blown off the floor whenever the Warriors please if AD is out

Frank Jackson looked to have passed Ian Clark in the rotation last time out and I’m comfortable rolling him out there in moderate doses tonight with Elfrid Payton out. A blowout would likely be an asset to him as well

-After Klay Thompson positively regressed about as hard as one can, he’s actually got even further to go given that he’s still at just 44.3% from the floor and 31.7% from three after his record setting night. There’s no reason to think he can’t keep it rolling tonight and the price increase may scare some folks off

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Steph Curry could also be the one with the big game despite likely seeing some of Jrue Holiday’s tough defense. Kevin Durant is also in play if you think the game stays close enough for him to see his full court time. Both those guys are under $10,000 on DraftKings again and both possess 60+ point upside in this matchup

Draymond Green put it on the Pelicans in both the regular season and the playoffs last year, putting up some of his biggest fantasy point totals of the year up in matchups versus New Orleans. He’s not the guy to bank on but he can be as viable as anyone if the ball bounces his way

 

Dallas Mavericks (113.8 implied points) at LA Lakers (120.8 implied points)

DeAndre Jordan’s price has trickled back downwards but I like his shots in a matchup with Javale McGee at pace. Lots of easy lobs and boards should be in play for DeAndre today

Luka Doncic is priced up a bit after his biggest game thus far against Utah and this Lakers matchup should be much easier sledding. I like Luka to bring it again and I like him more if ownership appears to be low closer to lock

Dennis Smith is still at a great price given how his usage has been lately and this paced up matchup should be a good one for him. Smith struggled versus the Lakers last season and Lonzo Ball may give him some headaches but overall I like his prospects tonight

Harrison Barnes is too cheap now that he’s getting minutes and shots up and this is one of few times to play him given how low his ceiling can be. At his $5,500 DK price you’d gladly take the 32-36 points he’ll likely pick up with the Lakers’ lax D

LeBron James also should be in a good spot with no one to stop him on the Dallas side. LeBron has been dominating the Lakers in assist rate, rebound rate, and usage and he doesn’t project for a ton of ownership despite the matchup

Brandon Ingram looked rock solid in his return to the lineup and this is a nice matchup for him to keep it rolling. I’m comfortable with him tonight and think he’s got some decent upside if the Mavs keep this close, which they’ve been able to do against tough teams so far

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Javale McGee continues to roll and his price is back down a little. DeAndre Jordan will steal a bunch of rebounds away but his presence will likely necessitate solid court time even if he gets slightly less shot attempts with Ingram back in the lineup

Lonzo Ball has been awful since Rajon Rondo returned from suspension and Rondo siphoned minutes off of Ball last time due to his ineffectiveness. At Lonzo’s price, this seems like a nice spot for him to get back on track but it all depends on how his ownership looks

 

San Antonio Spurs (111.3 implied points) at Phoenix Suns (104.3 implied points)

-This should be one of the lowest paced games on the slate and as a result I’m likely to not have a ton of exposure here

DeMar DeRozan is priced all the way up to $9,500 on DraftKings and there could be some value in playing him in a cake matchup versus Phoenix. The price is outrageous but DeRozan has regular had 60 fantasy point performances and at a certain point people have to accept his role is wildly different than Toronto

Rudy Gay has also been smashing lately and with his efficiency in this offense and him seeing upwards of 40 minutes in some games, he may not be affected by this game going slower

LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off of a few dud games but defense from the Suns bigs won’t stop him at all here. The pace and blowout risk is a concern but Aldridge is due for a big game

Patty Mills got up to 34 minutes versus Dallas and you can’t trust him to shoot enough to be useful, particularly with high usage guys like Derozan and Aldridge and even Gay on the floor. But as a GPP flyer, I don’t hate it

DeAndre Ayton has proven to be able to put up points even in less hospitable matchups and the Spurs really haven’t been as great defensively as they have in the past anyway, more relying on a slow pace than quality defense. He has some upside here with his price down a bit

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Josh Jackson and TJ Warren are not seeing enough minutes for me to trust them, though Warren’s usage and hot start to the year is appealing

Elie Okobo had his first big game and may stand to earn some more minutes, especially if Isaiah Canaan hasn’t fully recovered from his ankle issues. While he’s not a guy to bank on yet, some exposure to Okobo could make sense to afford some higher priced guys (and as protection if the Spurs run away with it)

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags, tune into our YouTube at 6PM Eastern to go Live Before Lock with me and Fast Eddie Fear, and I’ll see you guys soon with more NBA analysis.

Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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