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If you missed our PlayLine Primer or original PlayLine article, I highly recommend you read it first. Awesemo did an outstanding job explaining how to create your own projections for these contests. I’ll be repeating a lot of that process here, in lesser detail.
Today, I’ll be projecting the expected points, rebounds and assists for Draymond Green in Wednesday’s Game 2 versus the Houston Rockets. Green is one of three guys (Harden/Curry) in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $3,600 GTD – The Big Shot” tournament on PlayLine.
Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!
You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.
After a victory in Game 1, the Warriors will be looking to make it 2-0 heading back to the west coast. The Rockets are currently a 1.5 point favorite, with a total of 224.5. In the first game, Draymond had a quiet scoring night, scoring just 5 points in 37 minutes. He did have a huge impact in the game otherwise, with 9 rebounds and 9 assists to go with a +19 on/off rating. Below you will find Draymond averages and deviations for the 2017-18 season.
Average: 11.2 points, 7.5 assists, 8.1 rebounds
Standard Deviations: 5.3 points, 2.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds
In general, you should be aiming to be within 1.5 deviations of the average. I would start my build in the following range:
Points: 3 to 20
Assists: 2 to 14
Rebounds: 3 to 12
Draymond is unique for this type of contest, as his game is less reliant on scoring. There are still plenty of points to go around based on the results of Game 1 and the implied totals for Game 2. I would expect Draymond to do a bit better than 1-5 from the field. I don’t have a ton of confidence in predicting this game, but I do expect Draymond to fill the stat sheet. A low-scoring triple double is in the cards. I’m starting my placeholder at 10 points, 6 assists and 10 rebounds. In my article from Monday, I took a look at James Harden’s ownership from our last PlayLine contest. That data has me shading Draymond’s points and assists below his seasonal averages.