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The NBA Slate Starter: NBA DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Thursday, 6/3

Eric Lindquist

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Free No House Advantage picks and props for the NBA DFS 11/26/2021 slate using expert projections & Awesemo's rankings tonight.

Wednesday was a wild one, as late news shifted a lot of lineups onto the likes of Matisse Thybulle and Boban Marjanovic when they became surprise starters. Both ended up being massive duds despite being minimum salary — plus the mid-range went absolutely berserk in the late games  — so it was a fractional losing night despite almost 100% Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. However, late swap has been very good as a whole this season, so no hard feelings just because it’s the postseason. Sadly, with the four-gamers most likely in the rearview for the rest of the year, it is time to brush up on two-gamers, starting with tonight. So let’s get to work finding a few NBA DFS picks and strategies that can get it done on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | June 3

Are the Lakers Fakers?

The 2020 NBA Finals was played less than a year ago, but how things have changed in the Association since the bubble days. This is mostly referring to is the defending champion Lakers, who will be in a win-or-go-home situation against the visiting Suns at Staples this evening. The Lakers remained favorites to get out of the West as few as two days ago, although it’s hard to blame sportsbooks for being that inefficient due to the amount of handle a popular team surely generates.

But quite obviously, those odds were not earned, and the Anthony Davis-less Lakers were promptly dismantled by the Suns 115-85. And despite being title favorites at the beginning of the season and favorites to come out of the West for the entire year, LeBron James and Co. will need to win back-to-back matchups just to advance to the next round. And based off anything we saw in Game 5, that seems extremely unlikely, even though the Lakers are somehow 2-point favorites in Game 6 tonight.

For NBA DFS purposes, surely gamers will be taking shots on a few Lakers praying for upside. Between Dennis SchroderAndre Drummond and Kyle Kuzma, it’s hard to imagine at least one will not have a decent night in this elimination spot. Who that will be is a mystery, but adjustments will be made and James is going to work his magic to open up opportunities for all three should Davis be incapable of giving it a go. Still, the Lakers are perhaps the worst team to target out of all four on this slate. That means gamers should proceed with extreme caution with Los Angeles tonight, as lineups with three Lakers feel super suboptimal as of right now, even with only two games to work with.


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First Game Boom, Second Game Bust

The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool should be a staple at this point, especially in the postseason where there aren’t a ton of late-swap opportunities to generate an edge against the field. Not only does it help decide who should be popular and should not be, but it can help decide who the best plays are on the slate, full stop. The boom percentage, or chances that a player exceeds 5x + 10 fantasy points of their salary, is a huge help since it can show through a data-driven approach who the plays with the most upside are on a slate relative to their salary. It could also help demonstrate just how much better the first game of the evening is to target. With Damian Lillard and Nikola Jokic heading for an encore in a matchup featuring a 228 total, there is no doubt the super-low 207.5 total awaiting in the late-night hammer with Suns – Lakers could be lesser of a priority, especially with the slight nudge to James’ salary on both sites.

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Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

  • This might be one of the more straight-forward slates we’ve seen in quite some time: Mix and match a ton of the first game, hit on two to three plays in the second game, win money. Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock crew on the Awesemo YouTube channel tonight, as perhaps they have some insights on how to get different that is not apparent. But unless there is some extremely unexpected news, there seems to be no way to deviate from building that way.
  • The easiest way to get different on a two-game slate is leave a little salary on the table. Even $100 or $200 can go a long way in avoiding duplication without giving up too much in way of projection.
  • Michael Porter Jr. went for 51 fantasy points in Game 5 and had his price decrease $100 to $6,900. That is nonsensical, but now just play him alongside all of these other Nuggets in the superior game environment on the slate.
  • Just play C.J. McCollum.

Check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Adam Kaufman and Josh Engleman!


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Check out our NBA DraftKings rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA daily fantasy projections. Our most accurate NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Looking for more DFS NBA news and the best NBA DFS tools? View our FanDuel NBA ownership, our Yahoo! ownership and our DraftKings ownership projections. We also have DraftKings NBA rankings, FanDuel NBA ownership rankings and Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings for today's slate.
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