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CFL DFS Picks: Sleepers, Fades and Value Plays for Week 5

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Nolan Kelly breaks down the Week 5 CFL DFS slate, giving out sleepers, values plays and fades for DraftKings lineups.

Sorry for the delay here – we, for some reason, don’t have CFL lines yet, which makes CFL DFS picks and prognostication all the more difficult. Vegas must be losing big money.

Last week was one of those ones where pivoting off the big-time chalk paid might have paid dividends, but it didn’t actually work that way. Moses Madu Jr. and Brandon Banks were on the winning lineup and didn’t hit value. If you didn’t have Alouettes RB Willie Stanback in your lineups, you were in for a boring finish. He put up 200 yards rushing, en route to 45.9 DK points to lead the slate by a large margin. Just goes to show that sometimes in DFS you don’t have to hit the nuts to win. Far From it.

As always, we’ve got our screenshot of last week’s winning lineup.

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CFL DFS Matchups

Right around this time of the season I like to pivot off some of the trends that we’re seeing in the hopes that small sample sizes will lead people to make poor decisions. As noted below, The Montreal Alouettes have the worst passing defence in the CFL, by far, but they’ve also played Hamilton twice and Edmonton in their three games. So those numbers are skewed and not indicative of how good or bad this defence really is. That’s going to lead to a chalk Dominique Davis this week at his price point. He’s a fine play in his own right, but is probably being overrated because of the matchup.

Game Breakdowkns: CFL DFS Picks, Sleepers, and Fades

Edmonton Eskimos -2.5 at B.C. Lions (Thursday)

  • Bryan Burnham practiced in full on Monday after missing last week with a lower-body injury. He’s still got the questionable tag on DraftKings, which should reduce ownership.
  • The Lions passing offence has been abysmal this year, but Duron Carter, Lemar Durant and Burnham are all in the top-five in targets. That’s more a reflection of the Lions unwillingness to run the ball during the first two weeks of the season.
  • The Eskimos are allowing a league best 25 passing attempts and under 200 yards passing per game thus far.
  • John White IV has taken over lead duties for the Lions out of the backfield. He’s been lighting it up over the past two weeks and has pass catching prowess to go along with a solid workload.
  • Davaris Daniels is expected to return this week for the Eskimos, cloudying their once concentrated offence a bit.
  • Both Ricky Collins Jr. and Kenny Stafford are underpriced and make for safe plays with upside against a BC team that’s allowed the third most passing yards in the league thus far. They disappointed in Week 2 against the Lions, as the Eskies opted for a run-heavy approach, featuring CJ Gable. On the road, in the dome this week, that philosophy could change.

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers -11.5 (Friday)

  • With the Bombers as big home favorites, staring a banged up QB, running back Andrew Harris is going to be chalk this week. I’d assume the most likely roster combination will be Harris and Anthony Coombs (see below), paired with this Bombers DST, so differentiate accordingly.
  • The Argonauts are averaging a league worst 9.3 points per game and have turned the ball over a league high 10 times this season.They’re staring their backup quarterback, the less-than-impressive McLeod Bethel-Thompson. The Bombers are a turnover generating machine and will be the chalkiest DST pick of the week, though as far as DSTs go, this is a tough fade.
  • WR Chris Matthews is back on the injured list after suffering a hand injury last week. Good luck trying to figure out which Bombers receiver is going to have a solid game. Darvin Adams will be the lowest owned of the bunch at $8,300, but makes for a solid low-owned pivot of the chalkier, cheaper plays. He finished last year with 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TDs.

Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks no line (Saturday)

  • The Redblacks should be favoured by a 7+ points when the line comes out, making Moses Madu Jr. an intriguing option at a cheap price, after he burned everyone last week. Montreal has been bad against the run this year, allowing 5.4 YPC and 110 yards per game.
  • On the flip side, Montreal has been worse against the pass. They’re allowing a league worst 420 yards – though, as mentioned above, hat number is misleading because they’ve played the two best passing offences in the league this year (EDM and HAMx2). With that in mind, it might be prudent to fade Dominique Davis. A lot of DFSers are going to see that “9th ranked” passing defence and just click the name, without placing that number in it’s proper context. Davis isn’t a bad play, obviously, just prepare for chalk at $8,800.
  • If you’re looking for a cheap, deep-sleeper, former Indianapolis Colt Quan Bray tallied an 8-54 line on 10 targets last week. With Devier Posey and Malcolm Carter out for the Alouettes, there’s some upside there at a reasonable price.

Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats no line (Saturday)

  • Sean Thomas-Erlington OUT this week for the Tiger-Cats as is backup Cameron Marshall, leaving $4,200 pass catching threat Anthony Coombs as the lead back. He will be chalk, but in my opinion, he’s good chalk. I’d hit the lock button.
  • Early season standout Bralon Addison is questionable for the Ti-Cats. He makes for a nice, late swap pivot if he goes and you need to differentiate your lineups. People will forget about their lineups by Saturday night.
  • Brandon Banks will see reduced ownership this week due to not meeting value last week and a tough matchup against the Stamps with no price discount. People will flock to play Andrew Harris, which doesn’t leave a tonne of room to fit Banks in. We won’t see him hit 57%, anyways.
  • Ka’Deem Carey is another solid choice at RB at just $5600. Terry Williams stole a few snaps but Carey will still see the bulk of work. The only real question is whether or not the game script will allow the Stamps to run the ball.
  • Juwan Brecasin is out again for the Stamps.

Good luck everyone!

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in getting better as a player, and in helping you become a better player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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