Week 15 brings some of the biggest NFL DFS contests along with it. DraftKings has two Milly makers ($10 and a $1,500) and the FFWC are also taking place this weekend. Some people will take home some big cash prizes this week, and to go along with these contests, we have a pretty interesting Sunday slate as well. The byes are all done, but we do have a couple of Saturday games (and Sunday Night and Monday Night Football games), so there are only 11 matchups on the main slate. While there’s been a lot of fluctuation in the totals, the biggest over/unders as of writing lay with Kansas City at New Orleans and Detroit at Tennessee, both at 51.5. Tennessee also has the highest implied team total as of writing at 31.50, which is going to enhance the ownership levels on Derrick Henry, who is coming in the Top-2 in Awesemo ownership projections. No doubt, he’ll be one of the most popular NFL DFS picks on DraftKings.
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Week 15 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks + Ownership Projections
Contrarian DFS Stack: Bears
Chicago projects with just a 5.1% chance of being the top stack this week (in the Awesemo stack tool, which you could see if you signed up for a membership), but their passing attack has some appeal as a solid GPP pivot for a few reasons. The first is price, as Mitchell Trubisky comes in at $5,500 and has seen no price increase on DraftKings, even after his big game last week. That puts him $1,400 cheaper than Patrick Mahomes in a spot where you can more easily stack him with Allen Robinson, David Montgomery or even Darnell Mooney.
I bring up Mooney because the matchup with the Vikings is a great one for the Bears receivers. Minnesota has given up the second-most touchdowns to the receiver position in the league this year and features a group of mostly unathletic corners, which will be great for a speed threat like Mooney (4.37 40-yard dash). Robinson should have a field day here too, and the Bears may actually end up needing to pass more in this game (they only threw 33 times in a blowout win last week) given that the Vikings are seventh in points scored this year. This game has some shootout appeal, and stacking Trubisky with one or more of his receiving options could be a great way to gain some salary space and exposure to more studs for Week 15.
QB: Kyler Murray Grades: A, Values: A
We have an exciting fantasy matchup to look forward to in Arizona this week as two dynamic rushing quarterbacks go up against each other. Both Jalen Hurts and Murray rank very well in the Awesemo grades and projections this week, but it is Murray that projects out with better upside — his projection is 4.3 points higher than Hurts’. Murray is also the second-highest ranked quarterback in terms of pure points on the slate and also has a value score that puts him as the third-highest-ranked quarterback in that category (for those interested, Hurts rates out as the best value at quarterback).
The Eagles defense actually came to life against a rushing quarterback last week, forcing Taysom Hill into a couple of turnovers and his worst game as starter. The Eagles may not be the easiest matchup, but they’re not terrible either. Philadelphia is a top-10 team in pace of play and has allowed the most yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks this season. Murray got back on track with a solid road effort against a tough Giants defense and should excel here at home against a Philadelphia front that hasn’t handled speedy quarterbacks well.
Projected NFL DFS ownership projection: DraftKings: 8.7%
RB: Cam Akers Grades: B, Values: B
Akers is coming off a breakout game against the Patriots last Thursday night, when he got vaulted into the lead role by Sean McVay. Akers took 31 touches last week (29 rushes and two receptions) and was also coming off a 21-carry game the week before. We’ve seen Rams running backs in this offense be absolute fantasy studs at times (remember Todd Gurley circa 2017-2018), so Akers’ rise should not be met with apprehension. There’s also the matchup, which is an absolute dream against the Jets. Los Angeles comes into this week as 17-point favorites in a spot where they figure to be running the ball a ton late.
The Jets rush defense is actually a mild bright spot for their team, but they’ve still allowed the sixth-most rush attempts (against) of any team in the league this year. Akers should be in for another big workload, and even with the price increase, he ranks well on Awesemo, with the fifth-best points projection on the slate at running back and the third-best value score. He’s a solid mid-tier target for Week 15.
Projected NFL DFS ownership Projection: DraftKings: 15.4%
WR: Calvin Ridley Grades: A, Values: B
Ridley projects as a really strong play this week on Awesemo. He is coming off his best game in quite some time, as he caught eight passes on 12 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. Ridley is the lone explosive weapon the Falcons have left without Julio Jones in the lineup (he’s questionable and hasn’t practiced all week) and would be in for a monster workload if Jones sits. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game this year and the fifth-most passing yards. They’ve delved back into more of a funnel defense lately and have allowed some monster games to opposing teams’ WR1’s lately, including a blow-up game to Tyreek Hill in Week 12.
Ridley’s not cheap at $8,200 (his highest price point of the season), but he also carries the highest points projection of any receiver on the Sunday slate this week. Despite that, he carries reasonable ownership projections for now, and his price is likely to keep some people off him since people will be spending up on Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce. Ridley ranks out with the best upside at his position, though, has a solid matchup and shouldn’t be overlooked here in Week 15.
Projected NFL DFS ownership projection: DraftKings: 14.3%
TE: T.J. Hockenson Grades: B, Values: B
As per usual, Kelce tops the list in points projections and grades at tight end on Awesemo this week. The only issue with using Kelce is his price tag, which now sits at a season high $8,000 on DraftKings. If you’re looking for a cheaper alternative, Hockenson should draw some interest. The potential quarterback-change to backup Chase Daniel could draw a lot of people off Hockenson in DFS — as of writing he’s only projecting out with a 5.7% ownership on Sunday. The Lions head into this game as 10.5-point underdogs — that number seems likely to rise before kickoff too — so they’ll likely be in pass-heavy mode most of this game. That’s a great spot for the Lions receivers to be in against Tennessee, who has allowed the fourth-most passing yards against in the league this year.
The Lions are using Marvin Jones as their No. 1 wideout, so there’s plenty of opportunity for Hockenson here to draw secondary coverage, and he comes in averaging six receptions and 72 yards over his last three games. This is also a player who leads his team in red zone targets on the year, and while he’s not scored multiple touchdowns in a game yet in his short career, that certainly could occur at some point before the end of 2020. He’s a solid swerve play if you’re intent on paying up for the absolute studs somewhere other than tight end this week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership projection: DraftKings: 5.7%
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