Wild Card weekend has been broken up into two NFL DFS main slates by both DraftKings and FanDuel. That means we’ll have two Low-Priced Value Plays articles this week, so stay tuned for the Sunday edition. Here are the best NFL DFS picks values across the board for the Saturday Wild Card NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
[2021-New-Year-Promo]
[SportsbookAffiliates]
NFL DFS Picks: Saturday Wild Card DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays
Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Quarterback
Alex Smith ($5,100 DraftKings / $6,500 FanDuel)
Without knowing the status of Jared Goff yet, Smith clocks in as the best value on DraftKings and the second-best value on FanDuel per our projections. Smith may not be the most notable name on the board for the Saturday slate, but he exists at the apex of price and volume. We have Smith projected to throw more pass attempts than any other quarterback this weekend and that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Washington is eighth in the NFL in game-script adjusted pace and is projected to lose by more than a touchdown. Smith has started and finished in one loss this year. He threw the ball 55 times.
Despite successful teams typically passing well and then winning football games, Washington’s passing splits in wins versus losses have been drastic this year. In wins, Washington has posted 168.3 passing yards per game. That number jumps to 251.1 in losses.
The Tampa Bay matchup may not be the best, but their offense forces opposing units to air it out. Despite having a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Focus, their opponents averaged 246.6 passing yards per game. That mark is 21st in the NFL. They are also a below-average defense by passing touchdowns per game allowed (1.8). Smith is a solid value play that opens your lineups up to constructions that Josh Allen rosters simply don’t have access to.
NFL DFS Pick: Running Back
Ronald Jones ($5,500 DraftKings / $6,700 FanDuel)
On the opposite side of the same game script sits Tampa Bay’s running back. The line is -8 in favor of the Buccaneers, and their team total of 26.5 is second on the Saturday slate. They are 2.25 implied points behind the Bills but 3.25 implied points ahead of the next closest team, Seattle. Unlike Buffalo, the Bucs actually use a running back, so their good game script won’t go to waste. The Bills are averaging the sixth-fewest running back carries per game and split their backfield evenly. Tampa Bay, while still low, is only at the 12th fewest and has given Jones the bulk of the work when he is active.
Jones has played in three wins since dating back to Week 10. In those victories, he has averaged 17.7 carries for 116.7 yards. He also has three scores in those games. Another note that can only break in favor of Jones is the status of Leonard Fournette. The Buccaneers were making him inactive before Jones got placed on the reserve/COVID-19. He was kept on the roster for Week 17 because LeSean McCoy briefly stepped away from the team. Jones is the best value on Saturday before gameday inactives come down. If Fournette is scratched, his value will go through the roof.
NFL DFS Pick: Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin ($6,300 DraftKings / $7,100 FanDuel)
If Cole Beasley is ruled out, John Brown will take the place of McLaurin as the best receiver value to target. Brown saw four targets in less than a half of play last week. It was his first game back from IR, but the Bills were without Beasley so Brown immediately reclaimed the No. 2 role. He saw four targets and converted on all of them to the tune of 72 yards and a score.
Without the news on Beasley, we roll with McLaurin as the best value at receiver. He may not be cheap, but he’s less than Stefon Diggs and his market share numbers are equally (if not more) impressive. McLaurin is second in the NFL in air yards share (47.1%) and trails only Michael Thomas, who has played in just seven games this year. The gap between McLaurin and the No. 3 receiver is comical. Davante Adams is third in the league with a 42.2% air yards share, nearly five points lower than McLaurin. McLaurin is also sixth among receivers in target share. If Washington has any chance of keeping their game close, it’s going to come through McLaurin.
NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Pick: Tight End
Gerald Everett ($3,000 DraftKings / $4,600 FanDuel)
Everett winds up as a top-two tight end value on both sites simply because of how miserable the position is on Saturday, and he is at a solid price point. He was banged up to start the year and didn’t play on at least two-thirds of his offense’s snaps until Week 7. Dating back to that game, Everett’s 11.7% target share is higher than Tyler Higbee‘s, and he has five looks in the red zone to Higbee’s three.
Using the value in the Tampa Bay – Washington game or with Everett (and Cam Akers as a sneaky value on the same team) is a great way to build unique lineups that can still afford to tap into the highest total of the week, Bills – Colts. Playing a stack of the best players in that game may not be smart cap management, while rolling with it as a heavy secondary stack could be much more feasible.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more Wild Card NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
