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Low-Priced Value Plays: Wild Card Sunday NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel

Kyle Dvorchak



Kyle Dvorchak breaks down the best NFL DFS value picks for DraftKings + FanDuel for Wild Card Sunday Daily Fantasy Football Lineups

Wild Card has been broken up into two NFL DFS main slates by both DraftKings and FanDuel. That means we’ll have two Low-Priced Value Plays articles this week so stay tuned for the Sunday edition. Here are the best NFL DFS picks values across the board for the Sunday Wild Card NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.



NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Wild Card DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays

Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky ($5,300 DraftKings / $6,900 FanDuel)

Trubisky has quietly been an adequate quarterback from a fantasy and real-life perspective since returning from his spot on the bench earlier in the year. Since re-entering the starting lineup, he has completed 70.1% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt and a 4.7% touchdown rate. He’s averaging 249.2 yards through the air and 1.7 touchdowns while adding something with his legs as well. He is rushing four times for 17.5 yards and .2 scores per game dating back to Week 12.

The Bears are eighth in the NFL in pass attempts per game and sixth in passing rate. They are 10-point underdogs to the Saints this week but that could easily push Trubisky to a season-high in pass attempts. His price correctly accounts for the low touchdown upside because of his team’s implied total but his ownership on the Sunday slate is going to be non-existent. He is currently projected to be the second-lowest owned passer on Sunday.

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NFL DFS Pick: Running Back

David Montgomery ($6,900 DraftKings / $8,400 FanDuel)

Since Tarik Cohen went down with a torn ACL in Week 3, Montgomery’s numbers have been truly elite. He is averaging 17 carries and four receptions for 104.5 yards from scrimmage and .8 scores per game. His 66% market share of the Bears’ rush attempts and 12% target share would both be top-five among all running backs over the course of the full season. Only looking at his games without Cohen would make Montgomery the only running back in the league to be top-five in both market share metrics.

Even without removing the first three weeks of the season when Cohen was the Bears’ receiving back, Montgomery is second among running backs in routes run. Factoring those weeks out, Montgomery has run a route on 62.8% of his quarterbacks’ dropbacks. Although game-script won’t be in his favor as a 10-point dog, Montgomery has the passing game role to overcome middling rushing volume. He remains the highest floor running back outside of Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry on Sunday.

Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Wide Receiver

Chase Claypool ($5,200 DraftKings / $6,100 FanDuel)

The values at receiver are mainly at the top end of the price range so getting a solid price on Claypool is one of the best values in the middle of pricing. Despite having an up-and-down role throughout the year, Claypool leads Pittsburgh with a 28.5% air yards share. The Steelers are 6.5-point favorites which would put most receivers at risk of being scripted out of the game-plan. Claypool and the other Steelers wideouts are not “most receivers.” Pittsburgh is top-10 in game-script adjusted pace and third in the league in game-script adjusted passing rate. Regardless of the situation, the Steelers play fast and pass often. Against a Cleveland defense that is 22nd in passing yards per game allowed and gave up 315 yards to Mason Rudolph, Claypool and the rest of the Pittsburgh passing attack all clock in as solid values.

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Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Tight End

Jonnu Smith ($3,200 DraftKings / $5,200 FanDuel)

Smith came in as an easy fade early in the year. He was running hotter than the sun in the touchdown department compared to his actual role and price. The price has come down to a palatable level and he won’t be incredibly popular after posting a string of mediocre games to close out the year. Despite being an underdog, Smith’s team has a 25.5-point implied team total. That mark leads all teams that Vegas projects to lose on Wild Card weekend and is even ahead of one favorite, the Seattle Seahawks.

The game total of 54.5 points is encouraging for the Tennessee passing attack as well. The Titans have played in eight games with a total north of 54 points this season. They have averaged 267.9 passing yards per game in those contests. That is 78.6 more yards per game than when the total is below 54. Typically a run-oriented team, the Titans are going to have to pass at an abnormal rate for them in a game that expects to feature loads of scoring. This is the ideal week to buy the dip on Smith.

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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