Week 6 is here and this is the first week where we have four teams on byes. That means one fewer game, but still plenty to break down, both for DFS NFL picks and in the sports betting market. We don’t have as many monster spreads as we’ve had in weeks past, which means more competitive games and more chances for some underdogs to win outright.
** When looking at lines, one of the most important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the markets**
Don’t forget to check out Thursday’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Week 6 Schedule/Spreads
Giants at Patriots -17
Panthers -2 at Buccaneers* Texans at Chiefs -4.5 Bengals at Ravens -11.5
Saints at Jaguars -1 Eagles at Vikings -2.5 Redskins -3.5 at Dolphins
Falcons -2.5 at Cardinals Titans at Broncos -2.5 Cowboys -7.5 at Jets
Steelers at Chargers -7 Niners at Rams -3.5 Seahawks -1.5 at Browns
Lions at Packers -4.5
*Game in London
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings -2.5 , O/U 44
This is a big NFC matchup as the Eagles travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. This spread has been bouncing from -3 to -2.5, which is a key half point so make sure to line shop if you can. Either way, this figures to be a close, competitive game that would go a long way for both teams’ playoff chances.
Philadelphia sits at 3-2 on the year after crushing the Jets at home last week. Carson Wentz is still healthy and a lot of his play-makers return after being out of the lineup in recent weeks. The Eagles secondary is certainly an area of concern, but their front seven helps to mitigate the damage that opposing offenses can create. For the Eagles to get a win here they are going to have to limit Dalvin Cook and force the Vikings to lean on Kirk Cousins instead of that running game.
On the Vikings side, they temporarily cooled the fires with a road win against the Giants. Earlier in the week, both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs voiced displeasure with the offensive gameplan, and specifically how Cousins and this passing attacked looked. We did see some shift in the play-calling and time will tell what will happen if and when they struggle tot pass again. They need to attack the Eagles through the air, especially if Cook is unable to find any rhythm. That should determine who wins this one.
I am still unsure about this Eagles team as they’ve looked great at times (road win at Green Bay), but still have some issues in various spots. Minnesota also is hard to gauge and it definitely is not in the most stable situation offensively. However, I think lost in this is how good the Vikings defense is, and at home, they have looked much better as a team so far in 2019. If Cousins can make enough plays to keep this offense balanced then I expect Minnesota to win this game and temporarily quell the rumblings surrounding them.
My Pick: Vikings -2.5
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at Cleveland Browns, O/U 47
Seattle is coming off a big Thursday night win at home against the division rival Rams. Russell Wilson was fantastic and his ability to create when nothing is there makes this offense difficult to gameplan for. Defensively, they aren’t the unit they once were, but still are doing enough to allow Wilson and this offense to have chances to win games.
Cleveland once again is against the wall and is in desperation mode to find a win. The Baltimore win kept them afloat, but they cannot afford to fall further behind if their ultimate goal is to find the postseason. Baker Mayfield looked lost against San Francisco on Monday and he needs to limit the turnovers as to not put tremendous pressure on the Browns defense. There is no doubt they have the talent to compete with anyone, especially on the offensive end with all the play-makers surrounding Mayfield.
Priority number one for Cleveland has to be stopping the run and not allowing Seattle to control the game on the ground. Currently the Browns have the 23rd-ranked DVOA against the run and that is where they will need to step up to avoid a 2-4 start. If they can do that, and possibly get two key secondary players back in Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward, they should be poised to cause some problems for this Seahawks offense.
This is a similar spot to a few weeks back when Cleveland was heading to Baltimore needing to win to avoid a 1-3 start. They steamrolled the Ravens and that temporarily quieted the critics and got them back into position in the AFC North. They find themselves once again in trouble and needing a big win to respond after that performance on Monday. I expect them to put forward another effort similar to what we saw against Baltimore. In that game, Nick Chubb went wild and the entire offense looked like the unit people hyped them to be in the offseason. If not, the pressure will become absolutely massive as the Browns would fall to 2-4 and be in critical danger of losing the 2019 season.
My Pick: Browns +1.5
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Washington Redskins -3.5 at Miami Dolphins, O/U 41
Get your popcorn ready for this one. The win-less Redskins travel to Miami to take on the win-less Dolphins. Both teams are god-awful, but someone has to win and this is a golden chance for both teams to break through.
The Redskins unsurprisingly got crushed by New England last week and head coach Jay Gruden became the first casualty of this NFL season. It wasn’t a huge surprise to see him get fired and now they turn to Bill Callahan to right the ship. Step one for the Redskins is finding a quarterback as they don’t seem to have an answer under center. Without that, it is almost impossible to be effective. On the positive side, you cannot get a better matchup then Miami’s defense who so far this season has looked terrible against both the run and the pass.
Miami is coming off a bye, and although they haven’t fired anyone yet, they have plenty of problems of their own. First off, they haven’t scored any points in the second half, which is just ridiculous, and are yet to be competitive in a game. In their defense, their first four opponents (Ravens, Pats, Cowboys, Chargers) are all quality teams so it remains to be seen if they cannot compete against bottom-end squads.
Miami coming off a bye and getting 3.5 points is a spot that I’m willing to buy in. As terrible as it feels to back this team, in a lot of ways, they have more stability than the Redskins as Josh Rosen has shown flashes of being a competent quarterback. Furthermore, as I just mentioned, the Redskins are nowhere near the quality of the Dolphins first four opponents and that should also make a difference in them staying competitive.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5
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Good Luck everyone!