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BOOM vs. BUST: Top NFL Daily Fantasy Picks to Roster & Avoid for Week 13

Eric Lindquist



Just like the extremely popular NBA Boom/Bust Tool before it, the NFL Boom/Bust Tool is one of the best and easiest-to-use tools here at Developed with the help of Alex Baker himself, the Boom/Bust Tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. By grouping players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom) or the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust), it is easy to compare every play on the main slate to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 13 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.

Week 13 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom/Bust Top Plays

Top Quarterback to Boom: Tua Tagovailoa

After trade rumors were swirling around Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson earlier in the season, it would have been understandable for the second-year Dolphins signal caller to have shaken confidence. But after Week 11 and 12 performances where Tagovailoa completed more than 80% of his passes in each outing, it would appear he is starting to hit his stride regardless of that news. The Dolphins are winners of three-straight, and against a putrid Giants defense in Week 13, could very well make it four if Tagovailoa can maintain his current level of play. And for DFS purposes, he is as good of a bet as anyone at quarterback on DraftKings with his bargain $5,500 salary and position-high 9.8% boom chances.

Top Quarterback to Bust: Kyler Murray

This one is still up in the air as Murray and his top wide receiving option in De’Andre Hopkins are both questionable for Sunday’s road tilt in Chicago. But even in the event Murray gives it a go for the first time since Week 8, DraftKings did DFS players no favors with his sky-high $7,500 price tag that consequentially leads to a massive 58.6% bust potential. Plus, his rushing floor is not what it once was anyways this season at just 18.4 yards per game on the ground, so to ask Murray to carve up a Bears defense surrendering just 215.8 yards per game through the air (8th-fewest in NFL) is a huge ask.

With so many questions surrounding the Cardinals stars, it might be worth checking in on some of the NFL player props for Murray in this Week 13 matchup.

Top Running Back to Boom: Jamaal Williams

With the absence of workhorse backs De’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook in the Lions — Vikings, backups Jamaal Williams and Alexander Mattison will be the two most popular running back plays of the slate. The former in Williams, however, sits atop the Boom Bust tool with a whopping 34.3% chance to boom compared to Mattison’s 30.1%. Those are not just the two best scores at the position, but the top two amongst every player on the Week 13 slate. And with optimal lineup appearance rates north of 28.6%, there is currently leverage to be had by rostering both who sit comically low at sub-20% ownership on DraftKings.

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Fellow Awesemo NFL writer Billy Ward is in LOVE with Williams this weekend and wrote at length about it in his Week 13 Must Play NFL DFS Value Picks.

Top Running Back to Bust: Najee Harris

While Harris gets the sort of volume to still sprinkle in for tournaments, the Boom Bust tool preaches caution in this spot. The Steelers’ opposition in the Ravens currently gives up the second-fewest rushing yards per game at 84.2, so the spot is not ideal for the Alabama alum. And despite some decent involvement in the passing game, he has failed to turn those targets into yardage in recent weeks with only 30-plus receiving yard performance since Week 3. Those are some of the factors that lead to the 49.3% bust chances for Harris in this spot, making him the most likely popular back expected to fail in this spot.

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Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Cooper Kupp

Surprise, surprise: Cooper Kupp is an exceptional play. Despite an expensive $9,000 tag on DraftKings, the Rams breakout wide receiver still sports a whopping 30.1% chance to boom against Jacksonville’s putrid secondary, tops at the position by 8.5%. Kupp has had at least 9 targets in every game this season and has only four outings where he failed to eclipse 26 fantasy points on DraftKings. That makes him a high-floor/high-ceiling option to prioritize on Sunday’s slate.

Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Marquise Brown

Styles make fights, but they also make football games. And with the Steelers surrendering 133.1 rushing yards per game (5th-most in NFL), expect the Ravens and their rush-heavy approach to be prioritized over the likes of Marquise Brown and the rest of this wide receiving corps. Not only that, but even in an outlier pass-heavy game script, Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins are serviceable enough wideouts that they can take work away from Brown in future weeks. This makes the Ravens WR1 a dicey play for Sunday, expressed by his 55.9% chance to bust in this spot.

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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. We also have DraftKings showdown projections and NFL DFS single-game ownership projections. View our FanDuel DFS NFL ownership rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings. Take a look at our inactives, NFL starting lineups and depth charts.
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