Cleveland Browns (23.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (29.25)
The highest game total on the main slate belongs, unsurprisingly to the Kansas City Chiefs who, despite losing in the Super Bowl to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, should pick up right where they left off, continuing their offensive dominance, particularly through the air. As expected, and like almost every week they are on the main slate, the Awesemo Top Stacks tool projects the Chiefs to have the highest raw projection, but also the best value stack once factoring-in salary into the equation. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are the most lethal NFL, and the Cleveland defense, which ranked seventh worst in defensive success rate allowed last season, are not going to be stopping them, instead merely hoping to contain them. The Browns, meanwhile, had their chance against this same Kansas City team in the 2020 playoffs, with Patrick Mahomes forced out of the game. But Cleveland’s defense was not able to get off the field, and ultimately the Mahomes-less Chiefs still prevailed. With both teams banking on their high-efficiency offense, Kansas City through the air and Cleveland on the ground, and each facing below-average defenses, this game should see plenty of fantasy points early and often.
Can the Browns Offense Keep Up?
The Browns could be playing from behind, which could theoretically lead to more usage for Kareem Hunt, but the Chiefs were not strong at all defensively a season ago, ranking below average in series success rate, and they struggled against the rush more than the pass over the last 10 weeks of the 2020 season. Nick Chubb will need to be an efficient runner since he does not rely on catching passes, but he has been one of the most efficient players in the league over the past three seasons. The over on Chubb’s rushing yardage prop of 71.5 looks like a solid bet.
According to the Awesemo NFL Advanced Stats tool, the Browns played at the 13th-slowest game adjusted pace in the league last season. If Kansas City is able to score early, they will likely have to abandon their typical pace and push the tempo, which could result in more usage for their pass catchers than is currently projected.
In the Cleveland passing game, we should expect a majority of the targets to head toward Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, but their Awesemo receptions projections are right in-line with their respective prop lines of 4.5. Each are projected for over five catches, but it is too close of a bet to make this weekend.
Just Play the Usual Kansas City Suspects
Tyreek Hill does not need a ton of volume to have a monster game in this spot. Instead he relies on deep targets and designed looks as a gadget-player to create chunk plays. Taking the under on his receptions prop of 6.5 looks like a plus-EV bet.
Interestingly enough, even in this plus-matchup against a Cleveland defense that ranked 7th-worst in the NFL over the last 10 weeks of 2020, Kelce’s receptions projection comes in ever so slightly under his prop line of 7.5. The Awesemo projections for Kelce’s receiving production are almost exactly in-line with his Vegas prop lines.
Expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to see a large majority of the backfield touches, and given the Chiefs’ propensity for scoring points, should have plenty of quality opportunities (goal-line rushes and targets) in this contest. He is currently projected for the tenth most targets of any running back this weekend.
The Bottom Line
While there is almost no way we see less than 50 points in this matchup, there is actually a decent probability this game only meets Vegas-implied expectations in terms of offensive production, which makes the players in this matchup slightly less appealing, particularly in DFS contests where many of the Chiefs’ pass catchers are expected to be heavily rostered. Though both Hill and Kelce (and Mahomes, of course) are capable of producing slate-breaking scores, it is likely advantageous to bet on premium players in other games who are not nearly as popular. Do not be surprised if Chubb has the best game of any Brown.
