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The NFL DFS First Look: Week 4 Pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel

Nolan Kelly

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Christian McCaffrey's girlfriend, Olivia Culpo, couldn't help but get amused by a raunchy Christian McCaffrey video about getting laid

Week 3 isn’t even over yet but that doesn’t mean we can’t take an early look at the Yahoo and DraftKings pricing for week three and give out some NFL DFS Picks along the way. We’ve got a few early stand out options at each position and in each price range. Early on, it’s looking like a week to pay up at running back, with Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in prime spots.

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The NFL DFS First Look

Favorite NFL DFS GPP Game Stack

Sign me up for some full game stacks from the Houston Texans-Carolina Panthers game. Kyle Allen looked sharp in his first start last week. The Texans have been torched by opposing quarterbacks this season, so a game stack with moderately priced D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel makes sense (see below for Christian McCaffrey), bringing it back with DeAndre Hopkins and/or another one of these Texans pass-catchers. Surprisingly, this game total is just 46 points – I’d expect that to rise as the week goes on.

Quarterbacks

The pricing across both slates seems fair here. Cheapies include the aforementioned Kyle Allen and $5200 Daniel Jones on DraftKings.

  • Jameis Winston continues to get no love on Yahoo, despite a rather impressive performance against the Giants yesterday. He’s priced below Derek Carr on Yahoo at $25 and will likely be chalk again because his receivers also didn’t get priced up (Mike Evans: $23, Chris Godwin: $19). A road matchup is neither here nor there.
  • Russell Wilson quietly passed for 400 yards against the Saints on Sunday. The Seahawks travel to Arizona this week for a matchup against the Cardinals and their 31st-ranked fantasy points-allowed-to-quarterbacks defense. Stacking Wilson up shouldn’t be difficult: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Will Dissly have accounted for 58 of the teams 77 targets to receivers and tight ends.

Wide Receivers

  • What’s Keenan Allen got to do to get priced above $8,000 on DraftKings? He leads the entire NFL in targets, receptions, total yards and air yards. Now he gets a matchup against the Miami Dolphins? My god. This is a tough bring-back spot if you’re NFL DFS game-stacking with Austin Ekeler, but consider Devante Parker, who curiously ranks fourth in the NFL in air-yards and can break one at any time if his hands of stone decide to cooperate. Parker is $4,100 on DraftKings and the bare min on Yahoo.
  • Allen’s teammate Mike Williams is only $4800 on DraftKings, if you’re looking to spend down. He had a season-high seven targets last time out.
  • Depending on what Terry McLaurin does during Monday Night Football, that $4,500 price tag on DraftKings might look like a bargain. He’s WAY too expensive on Yahoo at $23 though. Through two weeks, McLaurin ranked in the top-20 in targets, averaging 90 yards receiving per game and a touchdown. He gets a juicy matchup against the Giants next week, who have been torched by opposing WR1s thus far.
  • Will Fuller is going to break a slate one of these days – it’s a matter of when, not if. I’ll continue to roster him as he sits below $5000 and $20 on weekly basis in large GPPs.
  • If you didn’t see THIS catch from DK Metcalf on the weekend, fire up that video. He is a man among boys out there. He’s $4,800 on DraftKings and $15 on Yahoo with a matchup against the paced-up Arizona Cardinals and their terrible secondary on the horizon.

Running Backs

I’m not seeing a lot of value on this slate, outside of the top pricing tier. First impression is that this is going to be a week to pay up at running back, with Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey all good spots at moderate prices. Obviously, some value plays will open up as the week moves along.

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  • With no Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley on this slate, we don’t have a lot of traditional pay up options at the top. Fortunately, there’s McCaffrey, sitting under $9,000 on DraftKings and under $40 on Yahoo. The Texans are allowing the second most receptions to running backs so far this season (24-165 through three games), which should make up for their funnel defense (third-ranked DVOA) and give McCaffrey a safe floor.
  • Saquon Barkley is out, but that didn’t stop DraftKings from pricing up his backup, Wayne Gallman, to a point where you have to think about rostering him. However, on Yahoo, he’s the bare minimum at just $10. There’s really no one else in this backfield right now, so feel free to fire him up. The Giants have actually had some solid run-blocking numbers thus far in 2019, ranking fourth in PFFs blocking grade.

Tight Ends

  • The Indianapolis Colts are this year’s edition of the Tight End Flow Chart, after giving up a 6-66-2 line to Austin Hooper last week. They ranked 29th in DVOA against tight ends last year, allowing the third most fantasy points to tight ends along the way. To boot, starting safety Malik Hooker was injured last week and will miss 4-6 weeks. Now, the Colts get 2019 super-SPARQ breakout Darren Waller, who put up 134 yards on 13 receptions last week against the Vikings. He’s $5,200 on DraftKings and $18 on Yahoo. Reasonable pricing.
  • Evan Engram also stands out as a bargain at $5,700 on DraftKings. He’s averaging 10 targets per game this year, just under eight receptions and 90 yards. We could be witnessing a changing of the guard – or at least a new crop of elite tight ends, joining the likes of Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, so why not get in early before they’re priced $1,500 more? This is a tough matchup against Washington, but there’s really just no where else for Daniel Jones to go.

That’s it for the look NFL DFS Picks. Check back in throughout the week for all our NFL DFS content, including:

  • Adam Pfeifer’s Fantasy matchups column, breaking down every game on the slate.
  • Chris Spags’ Slant and Go: the top stats you need for your NFL DFS lineups
  • WR vs. CB matchups article
  • O-line vs. D-line matchups article
  • Pivot or the chalk
  • Ben Rasa’s premium spotlight article.
  • Chris Randone’s likes and dislikes

And much more!

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I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in using my technical writing skills to articulate and clarify our content in order to help you become a better fantasy sports players player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing [email protected].

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