The New York Giants host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Week 8 of Monday Night Football. The game total is falling and currently sits at 45.5 points. The Buccaneers are 13-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night Football | Giants vs. Buccaneers
Daniel Jones possesses all of the necessary qualities to be a solid play at Captain. He runs the ball and can spread his passes around to multiple receivers.
- No Giants player has over a 22% target share
- Jones is averaging 4.4 carries for 42.3 yards per game
Despite the rushing production, Jones hasn’t found the end zone yet, so his value as a runner may go under-looked. He’s also performed better as a runner versus good pass-rush units. Jones has averaged 5.3 carries for 58.3 yards when facing top-10 teams by sacks per game this year. The Buccaneers are second in the NFL in sacks per game.
- With Godwin (per game) – 1.5 receptions, 12.8 yards
- Without Godwin (per game) – 6.3 receptions, 89 yards
Godwin is out tonight with a fractured finger, so we should see the better version of Evans. He’s a solid play whenever Godwin is sidelined but will need the Giants to keep up in order for his team to continue throwing into the fourth quarter.
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Sterling Shepard returned to the lineup last week and siphoned away targets from Darius Slayton at an alarming rate. Shepard saw eight targets while Slayton only got four looks. However, Slayton ran seven more routes than Shepard. His team is a massive underdog which should keep the Giants throwing but that also means Vegas doesn’t see them putting up many points. Slayton should be paired with Jones and opposing pass-catcher if used in the Captain.
Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette
There’s no guarantee that either back takes over a leading role, but Week 7 did point to a potential Leonard Fournette breakout. Fournette played on nine more snaps than Ronald Jones last week and rushed for 16 extra yards on fewer carries. Most importantly, Fournette saw seven looks in the passing game and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as Tampa’s pass-catching back per Bruce Arians. The Top Showdown Plays tool has both Fournette and Jones as +EV Captain plays this week, but Fournette’s recent spike in volume makes him a better tournament play.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Tom Brady has been playing phenomenal football this year, and the only reason he doesn’t garner stronger consideration at Captain is that our projections have over a quarter of the field taking that approach. He’s thrown multiple scores in five games this year and is averaging 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt. Because he’s projected to be so popular at Captain, there could be some leverage in leaving him in the flex.
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Brady projected for 2.34 passing touchdowns tonight, making the 1.5 OVER at +140 on OddsShopper a solid deal. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Giants and Buccaneers.
Wayne Gallman is set to operate as the leading back for the Giants with Devonta Freeman sidelined. He rushed 10 times and added five receptions in Week 7. Dion Lewis only saw three carries and was not targeted. Gallman’s upside could come as a pass-catcher because his team is projected to struggle offensively. He has eight career games with a snap share higher than 40%. He has averaged 5.4 targets in those games. Gallman’s role as a receiver makes him a contrarian runback with Tampa onslaughts.
Evan Engram‘s season-high in DraftKings points is 12.5. He has target totals of 7, 8, 10, and 9 but hasn’t topped 65 receiving yards. Engram’s last game of over 15 DraftKings was Week 3 of 2019. His role is as the safety valve for Jones but that has resulted in him seeing an aDOT of 5.3 on the year. His upside is capped outside of a 10-catch game.
Scotty Miller led the Bucs in targets in Week 7 (9). He also led the team in receiving yards (109) and found the end zone once. He’s projected to take on a larger role with Godwin out of the lineup and currently leads Tampa Bay in air yards on the entire season. Miller will be an every-down player with a field-stretching role but his $8,600 price hike will keep his ownership in check.
With O.J. Howard out for the year, Rob Gronkowski has been a featured part of the Tampa offense. He’s played on at least 75% of the team’s offensive snaps in every game since Week 2. Over that span, he’s averaging 6.4 targets per game.
Kicker and Defense
The Buccaneers defense should have a field day against Jones but their price of $7,600 is one of the worst values on the slate. The kickers are more interesting ways to get different and save money. Tampa’s kicker Ryan Succop is our best value play over $2,000 because his team is expected to score 29.25 points.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Golden Tate‘s price has plummeted and rightfully so. He has been targeted three times in the past two weeks and played on less than half of the team’s snaps in Week 7. However, he’ll be unpopular and could revert to a larger role if the team is forced into passing more frequently.
Lewis has a pass-catching pedigree and should serve as the direct backup to another career backup. His measly price of $1,200 makes him worth considering.
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