Using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate, based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 3 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel Optimal Lineup
Courtland Sutton — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 12.8%, FanDuel: 11.5%
In the Broncos’ first game since Jerry Jeudy (ankle) went on IR, Sutton saw incredible usage this past Sunday against the Jags. The 25-year-old ran a team-high 31 routes and garnered a team-high 12 targets, resulting in Sutton being targeted on a jaw dropping 39% of his routes run. Five of these targets were over 20 yards and one of these targets was in the end zone. This immense opportunity translated into nine catches and a career-high 159 yards for Sutton. The fourth-year receiver now leads the NFL in air yards (309) and ranks eighth in average depth of target (20.6).
For this week, Sutton gets to face a hopeless Jets’ defense that owns the fourth worst PFF grade as a unit this season. Furthermore, the Broncos possesses a 26-point implied team total, which is the largest team total Sutton has ever been a part of. At only $6,000 on DraftKings, the wideout brings tremendous upside at a reasonable cost and sports a top-10 optimal lineup percentage score, via Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool.
Tyler Higbee — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 13.2%, FanDuel: 8.6%
Higbee was the ultimate letdown last week, catching only one ball for eight yards, but we have to go right back to him at only $4,000 on DraftKings against the Bucs. According to Awesemo’s Advanced Stats, the Rams and Bucs both rank inside the top five in game-script-adjusted pace. This contest’s total is the highest on the board at 55.5 points, and the Rams’ possess a 27.25-point implied team total and are only one-point underdogs. Without question, this is one of the top game environments of the week, and Higbee should rebound in this spot.
The tight end hasn’t missed a snap this season and has run a route on 50 of Stafford’s 59 dropbacks. While he only saw one target last week, Higbee caught five of his six targets the week prior for 68 yards. Additionally, the Bucs have surrendered the third most receptions and fourth most yards to tight ends this season, and gave up nine touchdowns to the position a year ago. Given his cheap salary on DraftKings, Higbee presents the highest optimal lineup percentage among tight ends.
Saquon Barkley — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 12.8%, FanDuel: 16.7%
After seeing limited work in the season opener, Barkley obtained a featured role in Week 2. The 24-year-old logged 84% of the snaps, saw 76% of the running back rushes for the Giants, including four red-zone carries, and ran a route on 27 of Daniel Jones’ 38 dropbacks. After suffering no setbacks with this usage, Barkley should handle a near every-down role this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the sixth-highest yard per rush this season (4.9).
In this beautiful matchup, the Giants carry a 25.25-point implied team total and are three-point home favorites. For his career, Barkley has been a monster when the Giants have been favorited, contributing 29.1 DraftKings points per game. Plus, in 16 career starts at home, the running back has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points on 10 occasions, and Barkley is currently a -110 favorite to score a touchdown this Sunday on BetMGM. This might be the cheapest we see him for the rest of the season, and Barkley is a value play that must be utilized on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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