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From the Slot: Week 7 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks & Ownership Projections

Geoff Ulrich

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This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks today at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s NFL DFS projections and models. For Week 7, there are 10 games on the main slate and a ton of big favorites to choose from. The Rams are 14.5-points favorites over the Lions, while the Cardinals are 17.5-point favorites over the Texans. The Buccaneers (at home vs. Chicago) are also double-digit favorites at -12.5. We will provide insight into ownership projections and matchup information. Be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 7 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Matthew Stafford | Grades: A, Values: A

There are plenty of big spreads in Week 7 and a handful of elite quarterbacks with implied team totals over 29 points. For DFS purposes, though, keep some room to pay up for the skill players in these games. Looking for even a small discount at quarterback will help construction this week. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the largest implied team total on the slate (32.75 points), but Stafford enters this slate as just the sixth-most expensive play on the slate at his position. Stafford completed 78% of his passes and threw four touchdowns last week against another weak team in the Giants, and the Rams enter this week averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt, which is first in the NFL. They are also taking on a team in the Lions that is last in yards per attempt allowed (9.3).

Big plays are likely going to flow from the get-go for Stafford, who has a healthy group of receivers and plenty of big-play options like Robert Woods and DeSean Jackson to turn to if the Lions decide to crowd Cooper Kupp. For daily fantasy football purposes, Stafford has the fourth-highest points projection at his position but also has the second-best value rating of anyone above $7,000 on DraftKings. Taking Stafford over more expensive options does not really impact upside at all, making him a top play at quarterback for Week 7.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 10.3%

RB Aaron Jones | Grades: B, Values: B

The Packers are a sneaky target on this slate, as they enter Week 7 with a 29.25 implied team total against a Washington team that has allowed 31 points per game, the most in the NFL. Washington is not going to be able to stop Davante Adams, but his usage often opens the door for more touchdown opportunities for Aaron Jones, who is fourth in red-zone carries this year and has eight receptions inside the red zone (four touchdowns receiving this year).

For this Sunday’s main slate, there are only 10 teams to choose from, and DFS players will be trying to pay up for Derrick Henry to get a piece of the Titans in a game that has a 57 over/under. Using Jones with Henry (or in his place) will make lineups a little more unique, as Henry’s big salary will push a lot of people towards cheaper running backs. It is worth noting too that Jones’ Awesemo projection only has him 2 points behind Henry, so the $1,700 salary difference between them looks worth taking advantage of on Jones.

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Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 13.4%

WR Cooper Kupp | Grades: A, Values: A

Kupp is essentially leading the league in all receiving stats through six weeks. He enters this game averaging 11.3 targets per game, which leads the league, but he is also averaging 14.2 yards per catch, which puts him up near the elite wide receivers and matches his career best from 2018. While his touchdown totals may regress somewhat later in the season (when the Rams have to play some cold-weather games), that is less likely to happen this week against Detroit, who has allowed more big plays than anyone this season.

While fading a popular wide receiver on a team that can score in a variety of different ways is always up for consideration, the Awesemo projections suggest rethinking that strategy. Kupp has not just the best points projection at his position this week, but also the highest projection of any offensive player in Week 7. It is rare to see a non-quarterback take the lead in that regard, and with Kupp’s salary up to $8,400 on DraftKings it is possible people galaxy brain themselves off Kupp at the last minute. Kupp is the top play this week regardless of position.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 23.8%

TE Darren Waller | Grades: A, Values: B

The Raiders had a solid bounce-back win against the Broncos last week and head into another winnable matchup with the Eagles in Week 7. Vegas has a winning record despite having seen decreased production from Darren Waller. After a monster Week 1 where he saw 19 targets and went off for 10 receptions, over 100 yards and a touchdown, Waller has been held to five catches or fewer in five straight games and has not gone over 65 yards receiving since Week 1. That script is bound to flip soon, as Vegas remains one of the weaker run offenses in the league and enters this week ranking last in yards per carry and 10th in pass attempts per game.

The Eagles have a thin talent group on defense, and it shows in some of their positional coverage. They have allowed five touchdowns to the tight end position and the third-most receptions to the position. Vegas has a solid 26 implied team total too, so paying up for Waller at $6,700 on DraftKings is not outlandish this week. Awesemo projects him for a spike week, as he has the highest projection at his position (over Travis Kelce) and makes for a good contrarian target.

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Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 11.8%

Top NFL DFS Stack: Rams

The Rams stack is projecting through the roof this week at just under 30% to be the highest-scoring stack of the week (the highest of the year so far), and there are plenty of skill players to pick from if looking for a little uniqueness. Stafford is projecting as a top-three ownership play at his position, but with other top names on the slate, he is not likely to be the most popular in GPPs.

Lots of people will side with Kupp (as they should, he leads the league in touchdowns and targets), but how many people will play him with Darrell Henderson Jr., who also projects strongly and is playing over 80% of the snaps? There are also role players like Tyler Higbee and DeSean Jackson to work with too. An onslaught Rams stack might take down some GPPs, but starting with the basics of Stafford and one of his top-end wide receivers is the preferred core to build around this week.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 10.3%


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We also have single-game projections and DraftKings showdown ownership projections. View our FanDuel NFL rankings and our DraftKings NFL rankings. Take a look at our inactive players, NFL depth chart list and NFL starting line-ups. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS picks for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL stacks.
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