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MUST PLAY Week 11 NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups




NFL DFS picks Daily Fantasy Football DraftKings FanDuel optimal lineup optimizer picks projections ownership rankings free advice tips strategy cheat sheet AJ Dillon Packers value plays core GPP cash game

It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 11 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 11

FanDuel Value Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa — $7,000

With Cam Newton being priced much higher on FanDuel, Tagovailoa is the best low-priced value on FanDuel. Tagovailoa has been criminally under-appreciated this year. He came back from injury with 22- and 28-point FanDuel games. While he followed that with a 16-point performance against the Bills, that is solid considering the Bills are allowing less than 13 points per game to quarterbacks on the season.

This week he draws the Jets in a much easier matchup. While the Bills have the league’s best pass defense, the Jets are by far the worst. They rank dead last in DVOA and are allowing over 20 FanDuel points to quarterbacks. This game has a fairly tight point spread (3.5), which is also a good sign for Tagovailoa’s prospects. Tagovailoa is fourth in value in Awesemo’s projections, but he rates highest of any quarterback under $7,700

DraftKings Value Quarterback: Cam Newton — $5,100

FanDuel has Newton priced appropriately as the starting quarterback in a functional offense, but DraftKings seemed to think he would not be starting. That seems to be a mistake on their part — although there is discussion of P.J. Walker being used in some packages. Either way, Newton’s price is far too low.

In his Panthers return last week, Newton scored two touchdowns on only nine snaps. While that is obviously an unsustainable rate, it still bodes well. Newton has a solid goal-line rushing role and electric playmakers in Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. McCaffrey in particular is a major boost for Newton. With McCaffrey’s ability to turn a screen pass into a huge touchdown, quarterback stats can rack up easily. It is also a solid matchup, with Washington allowing the third-most points to quarterbacks on the season. Newton has the best value of any DraftKings player in Awesemo’s projections for Week 11.

It is not just DraftKings where Newton is dramatically underpriced. He is also extremely cheap at Yahoo, which makes him one of the best options in this week’s NFL Yahoo Cup tournament.

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FanDuel Value Running Back: Myles Gaskin — $6,200

Gaskin trails only A.J. Dillon in FanDuel value in Awesemo’s projections for Week 11. Like his quarterback, he is the beneficiary of a matchup with the league’s worst defense. All of the Dolphins are slightly underpriced given their opponent. They are implied for over 24 points by Vegas, but Gaskin and Tagovailoa together cost a reasonable $13,200 in FanDuel salary. Rostering both payers gets exposure to every Dolphins score in Week 11.

Backup Salvon Ahmed has mixed in for only seven touches the past two games. With Gaskin handling 42, he is very nearly a workhorse back for the Dolphins. While he has been fairly inefficient with those touches, a matchup with the Jets has a way of fixing that. Gaskin also ranks top 10 in target share among running backs. Even if this game goes south for the Dolphins, he should still be involved in the passing attack.

DraftKings Value Running Back: A.J. Dillon — $6,200

With starter Aaron Jones out, Dillon will be stepping into the starting role in Green Bay. While his price on DraftKings reflects his starting position, he was still bumped up fairly conservatively. The Packers have shown a willingness to lean on their backup running back with Jones out in the past. During the two games Jones last missed, then-backup Jamaal Williams had touch counts of 22 and 23. While the Packers seem more comfortable with a semi-committee when everyone is healthy, they are fine with using a workhorse for a limited time frame.

It is a great matchup for Dillon too. The Vikings have a stout pass defense (sixth in DVOA) but struggle against the run, ranking 28th. With the Packers favored in this one, they could lean on Dillon significantly down the stretch if they get out to a lead. Even if they do not, Dillon has shown remarkable receiving ability this season. His 12.3 yards per reception and 89% catch rate are both higher than Jones’ numbers. Dillon is a game script-proof option. Awesemo’s projections have Dillon as easily the best value at running back on DraftKings in Week 11.

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FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: Cole Beasley — $5,700

Beasley leads all of the sub-$6,000 wide receivers in FanDuel value in Awesemo’s projections and checks in at eighth overall. Beasley has an extremely high floor in this matchup. The Bills are likely to throw the ball more than usual, as they square off with the Colts’ second-ranked run defense. That bodes well for Beasley, who is second on the Bills in targets with over 7.5 per game. He also leads the receivers in catch rate thanks to the low average depth of target routes he runs. This limits his ceiling. Teammate Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800), who has the deepest average depth of target on the team, is better in that regards. However, Beasley’s volume and catch rate stand out at his reasonable price.

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DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: Jaylen Waddle — $5,600

With college teammate Tagovailoa throwing him the ball, Waddle has performed at a WR1 level this season. In four full games with Tagovailoa, Waddle is averaging almost 17 DraftKings points. That includes the matchup with the Bills. Removing that game from the sample size, Waddle is averaging over 20 points. Tossing bad games from a game log is generally bad analysis, but on a week where the Dolphins face the league’s worst pass defense, a game against the league’s best holds little bearing.

With Tagovailoa under center, Waddle is averaging more points than A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb are on the year. Those players both cost at least $2,000 more than Waddle and have tougher matchups. Waddle is second among wide receivers in Awesemo’s projections for value on DraftKings in Week 11.

With Waddle providing such great value, there is no doubt why he is showing up in a TON of optimal lineups. Check in with Alex Hunter for more of the best NFL DFS Optimal Lineup plays,

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We also have NFL DFS single-game projections and NFL DFS showdown ownership projections. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL for multiple game slates, head over to NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. Take a look at our NFL starting line-ups, inactives and NFL depth chart list. View our DraftKings DFS NFL ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL rankings.
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