Welcome to the end of the longest week ever! Just a few things have changed in the NFL and around the country and, whatever side you’re on or team you root for, you’re probably just looking forward to relaxing and watching some quality football to get your mind off of things for Week 9, just like I am. The NFL is dealing with a major COVID-19 outbreak that has hit seemingly every team at this point, rendering several important players question marks coming into Saturday. Keep an eye on news for the latest changes relevant to NFL DFS and come back for the Sunday Update first thing before you start creating your groups, stacks and running crunches for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
The update will include all of the in/out news and changes as well as the in-group projection boost recommendations. I’m going to spend some time Saturday toying with additional group focuses to see if I can find value in forcing specific one-offs in certain situations to help shape the overall salary spend, though I’m not sure it will make it to recommendations at this stage.
The actual football should be fun this week, with a number of high-quality games on the slate. There are currently six games with totals in excess of 50 points, meaning we should have yet another bonanza of NFL DFS points to deal with. As I’m working with groups and projection boosts I’m always keeping an eye on our Top Stacks tool, which is linked below, and the NFL DFS Big Board, which are both excellent tools for getting a quick 50,000-foot view of what the slate looks like.
[AUGUSTA]
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 9
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
We had a few big changes and pieces of news drop already, everything should be accounted for but be certain to keep on top of late breaking items in our somewhat unpredictable year. Quarterback changes from the previous version have all been made and are important to be aware of, if you don’t remember to change your key player you will miss out on that team’s stack.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds (-10%), Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella (Kenyan Drake will miss this game, minor adjustment to slightly reduce the massive Edmonds shares)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker (+10%), Preston Williams (+10%), Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant (I don’t need one of the possible Dolphins RBs as a run-back, minor increase to pivot some ownership from TE to the top two WRs)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two
Group: Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst (-10%), Christian Blake (Calvin Ridley is a true game-time decision for this one and remains a zero in our projections, if he goes he is mandatory for this group, be sure to use the most up-to-date projections when you run your optimizer. I can take or leave Blake as of right now but I prefer him to Olamide Zaccheaus)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy (10%), Tim Patrick, Noah Fant (+10%), Phllip Lindsay, K.J. Hamler (Gordon was missing in the original run. Tim Patrick is expected to play, minor bump to Jeudy to level off some receiver ownership, this could drop between 5-10% in some crunches depending on where you want to be)
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one
Group: Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, J.K. Dobbins, Willie Snead (+10%), Devin Duvernay (+10%) (The focus is on Brown and Andrews as always with the skill players in this offense. We should see minimal shares of Snead and Duvernay even with the 10% bumps. Mark Ingram is out again for week 9 NFL DFS)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, Â Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (+10%), Michael Pittman (+10%), Marcus Johnson (+10%) (Removing T.Y. Hilton who will miss this game. Add the TE of your choice if you’re feeling it. Minor bumps to push some shares from Taylor to the receiving corps)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis (each of the Bills running backs saw one target last week, they’re both in play individually but difficult to include in stacks given the unpredictable involvement in the passing game and the general nature of the time-share)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, DeeJay Dallas, Greg Olsen (Chris Carson is out. Will Dissly is an alternate option at TE, David Moore is playable in extra large field GPPs for a limited set of crunches)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: Christian McCaffrey (+5%), Robby Anderson (-10%), D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (I’m curious to see if Mike Davis carved himself out a big enough role to remain relevant with McCaffrey’s return but I won’t be including him here)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell, Mecole Hardman (+15% – scale this back if you get too much)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Nick Foles
Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney (+15%), Anthony Miller (+10%), Jimmy Graham (The Bears rank as one of the least likely stacks for week 9 NFL DFS but their probability of success does outpace their current ownership. Keep an eye on the NFL Top Stacks tool through the weekend)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown (+15%), Corey Davis (+15%), Jonnu Smith (Kalif Raymond could be a good oddball play with Adam Humphries missing this one, though I prefer him in stacks rather than the run-back spot. Be sure to tweak WR spots so you don’t simply get 100% Henry in this run-back)
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Garret Gilbert (note, this is an important change from Cooper Rush who we had as the backup in the initial run. It’s come to this for the Cowboys …)
Setting: At most one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (Q), Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz (There are conflicting reports on Elliott’s status, as recently as 5:30 this morning reports indicated that he may play. If Elliott does not play you can include Tony Pollard at your discretion, he will be a popular inexpensive option)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock (Sidebar: Awesemo himself loved the under prop on Drew Lock‘s passing yards when it was announced at 270. It has since dropped to 261.5, you can track action like that on OddsShopper to find the best bet every time)
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler, Phillip Lindsay (Patrick is expected to play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matt Stafford (Stafford will play after a Covid-19 scare earlier in the week)
Setting: At least two
Group: Marvin Jones, D’Andre Swift (-10%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Quintez Cephus, Marvin Hall (Kenny Golladay is out this week. Hall and Cephus are GPP dart throws)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb (Q), Jordan Akins (keep an eye for news on Cobb and act accordingly)
Opposing setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson, Laviska Shenault, DJ Chark, Keelan Cole
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one (bringing this back down)
Group: Jonathan Taylor, Zach Pascal, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman, Marcus Johnson, Trey Burton (Hilton removed, Johnson added. I prefer Burton over Jack Doyle if I have to pick a TE from this offense)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Willie Snead (Devin Duvernay would be a good option to swap in and out of crunches with Snead for GPP upside)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Jake Luton (be sure to change this up, Gardner Minshew is out with a thumb injury)
Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson (+10%), DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell, Mecole Hardman (be sure to have the running backs limiter on to avoid doubling up on these backs. I don’t mind dropping Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle in for a limited set of crunches for NFL DFS GPP play)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Christian McCaffrey (+15%), Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs (Q), Darren Waller (-10%), Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, Bryan Edwards (Jacobs is very likely to play. Edwards added. Hunter Renfrow is not pulling a great projection so far for week 9, but you should feel free to add him for some diversification in what should be one of the higher scoring games of the week)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen (Q), Justin Jackson, Mike Williams, Joshua Kelley, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton (bump if Allen doesn’t go)
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen (Q), Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Justin Jackson, Jalen Guyton, Joshua Kelley (Keenan Allen popped up with an illness and a questionable designation on Saturday, keep an eye on this one. I like bumps to Hunter Henry and Jalen Guyton if Allen sits)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs (Q) (-15%), Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor (Jacobs is very likely to play)
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant (I want no part of the Dolphins backfield situation after Myles Gaskin went to the IR and with Matt Breida also out. If you’re looking in that direction Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird appear to be the best bets)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds (-10%), Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith Jr. (Keep a careful eye on how much Smith you’re getting to, his low price and reasonable projection are pushing him into this stack for me, which was why I am torn about even including him)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Hall, Quintez Cephus (Hall added)
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram (Golden Tate is out for disciplinary reasons. Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis will have unpredictable volume in the backfield again keeping them off the board for NFL DFS purposes)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Steven Sims (Dontrelle Inman out, Sims added)
[NFL-Content-Links]
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron (-10%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (Q), Amari Cooper (+10%), CeeDee Lamb (+15%), Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz (Pollard here if Zeke does not play, keep an eye on exposures to him)
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, DeeJay Dallas, Greg Olsen (Will Dissly works as an alternate TE. Removing David Moore here but I would run some crunches with him included. Chris Carson is out again for week 9, as is Carlos Hyde)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one (lowering with the reduced game total and heavily concentrated NFL DFS points projections)
Group: Derrick Henry (-10%), A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, Kalif Raymond (Raymond added. Slight reduction to Henry)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson (+15%), David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney (+15%), Anthony Miller, Jimmy Graham
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Kyle Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Steven Sims
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Wayne Gallman (I can take or leave Gallman here)
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
