Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Thursday Night Football slate between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets, with thoughts on Sam Darnold, Melvin Gordon and more NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Showdown | Broncos at Jets -1.5 | O/U 40.5
Denver Broncos: 19.5
Quarterback
Remember four months ago to the beginning of June when we had been without sports for what seemed like forever? That is why I am not going to complain about this game. Undrafted rookie Brett Rypien will become the third starting quarterback in just four weeks for the Broncos. If that name sounds familiar, he is the nephew of Mark Rypien, who played in the NFL for nearly two decades and was the 1991 Super Bowl MVP for Washington.
Though the younger Rypien was not seriously on the NFL Draft radar, he was a solid four-year starter for Boise State. During his time there he set several season and career passing records and also led the Mountain West Conference in various categories in different seasons. The one key thing to know is that he is not particularly mobile with just three college rushing touchdowns. He did have two receiving touchdowns on three catches, but keep in mind Boise State is well known for their love of trick plays in the red zone. Not to bury the lede, but coach Vic Fangio has indicated he may turn to Jeff Driskel when he feels he needs a quarterback with more mobility.
It will help that there will be no fans in the Meadowlands, but even so, a road debut for a rookie without Courtland Sutton and likely Phillip Lindsay is adding several degrees of difficulty.
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Running Back
It sounds like Lindsay is going to be a game-time decision after missing the last two weeks with a sprained toe. If he is back, that is going to cut into Melvin Gordon‘s opportunities. However, keep in mind these types of injuries are easily reaggravated without proper time to heal.
For perspective, if Lindsay is out, Gordon will be a fringe RB20 this week in full-PPR. If Lindsay returns, it drops him 5-10 spots depending on how healthy/effective you think Lindsay will be. Royce Freeman is the backup in his third season with Denver. Over the last two games he has five carries for 24 yards, and he caught both of his targets for 31 yards. Andrew Beck may see a couple of snaps, but he has yet to touch the ball on offense.
Wide Receiver
If anyone remembers the Denver Broncos Three Amigos of the late 80s, let me know on Twitter @EMacDFS. Thursday’s version with rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, who were first- and second-round draft picks, respectively, will be alongside “veteran” Tim Patrick, who will be playing in his 27th career game.
Be careful with DaeSean Hamilton, Diontae Spencer and Tyrie Cleveland, who combined for 18 snaps and one target last week.
Tight End
Noah Fant has played about a quarter of his snaps in the slot, but it will be interesting if he is held in more to block and release as a safety valve option to help protect the rookie signal-caller. Jake Butt and Nick Vannett are unlikely to see many targets, having combined for just six on the season. They will likely be used more as blockers or if/when Fant is off the field. With Sutton going down, Fant has three fewer targets than Jeudy and a team-leading 14 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns across the board.
Defense/Special Teams
Von Miller, Justin Strnad A.J. Bouye and Dre’Mont Jones are all in the injured reserve. Jurrell Casey tore his biceps last week and is likely done for the year as well. That said, the Broncos are still coming in as a fringe top-five D/ST for the full week, which does not bode well for our next section.
New York Jets: 21.0
Quarterback
It feels like Sam Darnold is going backwards with 215 passing yards in Buffalo Week 1, 179 against San Francisco in Week 2 and then 168 last week in Indianapolis. On the season he is 59-of-96 (61.5%) with 562 passing yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.
On a positive note, he is the most experienced of the two starting quarterbacks tonight. Unfortunately both are in the bottom five this week in every projection system and early rankings I could find.
Running Back
Frank Gore, Kalen Ballage and La’Mical Perine are quite a trio. This is Gore’s 16th NFL season. Perine is the cousin of Samaje Perine and Myles Jack. When Gore made his rookie debut, Perine was seven years old. Sticking with the rookie season theme, in 2018 Ballage was behind Kenyan Drake and, you guessed it, Gore when Ballage was Miami’s fourth-round selection.
Gore is going to be on the field for about 40-ish% of the snaps and will likely handle most of the rushing duties. Ballage and Perine will split the rest, with the former getting the nod in passing situations and the latter just happy to be on the field. Trevon Wesco will line up in an H-Back role from time to time, but the rookie does not have a target or touch yet.
Wide Receiver
Signs are pointing to Jamison Crowder playing after he missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. It is unknown how much he will play or how effective he will be, which seems appropriate for this game. My preference would still be Braxton Berrios, but he seems more suited to work out of the slot, which of course is where Crowder plays most of the time.
Crowder is one of my favorite options in full-PPR, and I have him on three of my five season-long teams. However, I am just worried about his health and do not feel great about this situation with the limited practice reports.
Breshad Perriman is still out with an ankle injury, so that means Chris Hogan is the most experienced receiver who is still healthy. Last week that earned him three targets and no catches. For the year he has seen 15 targets for seven catches and 75 yards for the second-most targets on the team behind only tight end Chris Herndon. Hogan also leads the team in snaps, which by referencing that just shows how void of fantasy options this offense really is right now.
Tight End
As mentioned in the previous paragraph, Herndon is leading the team in targets with 16, receptions with 10 and is second with 139 snaps. Ryan Griffin will probably be on the field for around a third of the plays, but his two targets last week were his first of the season.
Defense/Special Teams
In Week 2 Pittsburgh had seven sacks, a fumble and an interception against the Broncos. Last week Tampa Bay had six sacks and two interceptions. This week we have a rookie making his NFL debut on the road. Despite being winless, the Jets have still averaged two sacks and a takeaway per outing this season. It would not be a shock to see that doubled in this matchup.
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Thursday Night Football Showdown + Single Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
Yes, on DraftKings players are “too expensive,” but we all have the same options, so we need to get over that. Even though this game is an absolute disaster, there is still plenty of nuance and strategy that we can employ while constructing our single game contest rosters.
EMac’s Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: Denver Phillip Lindsay, Drew Lock, Blake Bortles NYJ Breshad PerrimanÂ
Thursday Night Football Top 10
- Melvin Gordon III: He will be wildly popular, but for good reason as evidenced by the rest of this list.
- Sam Darnold: Gets the nod as the more experienced signal-caller of those likely to see the field in this game.
- Jerry Jeudy: His big-play upside really stands out among this player pool.
- Noah Fant: Will be the biggest and the closest target to his rookie quarterback on most passing plays.
- Brett Rypien: On FanDuel he is just $12,000, which is appealing. On DraftKings he is $15,300 if you use him as your Captain.
- New York D/ST: No fans, but a rookie quarterback debuting on the road in prime time is nice.
- Frank Gore: This is not exciting, but he is the best bet for a touchdown.
- Denver D/ST: They would switch spots with the Jets if this game were in Denver.
- Brandon McManus/Sam Ficken:Â I have no issues playing both in the same lineup tonight.
- Braxton Berrios: Personal preference, I am concerned about Crowder’s health. He also returns punts.
Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Plays
- Jamison Crowder: If he were coming in 100% healthy, I would have him ranked behind only Gordon.
- Tim Patrick: At least he has experience.
- Chris Hogan: At least he will be on the field a lot.
- K.J. Hamler: A rookie quarterback and two rookie wideouts … mistakes will be made.
- Kalen Ballage: This is his FanDuel ranking with half-PPR. Move him to the top of this section on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets
- Royce Freeman: Could get half a dozen looks while spelling Gordon.
- La’Mical Perine: Would need iron man Gore to get dinged up to see more than a couple of opportunities.
- Jeff Driskel: If Rypien completely melts down, he will be back under center.
- Blake Bortles: Hey, it is 2020 and anything can happen.
- Jake Butt, Ryan Griffin and Trevon Wesco: Over/under of 2.5 targets seems about right for this whole group combined.
- Diontae Spencer:Â At least he will be on the field returning kicks and punts.
- Josh Malone, DaeSean Hamilton, Tyrie Cleveland, Andrew Beck: No thanks
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