The Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 of Thursday Night Football. The Panthers are two-point favorites, and the game has a 21-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
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NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS | Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Showdown Captain
Julio Jones vs. Calvin Ridley
Jones has missed a few games with a hamstring injury. He’s largely been a fantasy force when healthy. In games he’s finished, Jones is averaging 6.8 catches for 103.8 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Ridley has been active for all of those games as well. The volume that both players have seen has been nearly identical in Jones’ healthy games.
- Ridley – 21% target share, 32% air yards share
- Jones – 21% target share, 30% air yards share
The only notable distinction between the two is that Ridley has three more looks in the red zone. Both are projected to be low-owned in the Captain spot so it could be worth get exposure to them in large-field tournaments.
Robby Anderson vs. D.J. Moore
The Panthers also have a top duo of receivers that largely split the work.
- Anderson – 26% target share, 39% air yards share, 6 red zone targets
- Moore – 23% target share, 40% air yards share, 3 red zone targets
Moore has inexplicably hit 93 yards exactly in each of his previous three games. He has also scored three times over that span and is coming off a two-score game. Our ownership projections have the Carolina receivers being equally as popular at Captain. However, the volume and our Top Showdown Plays tool both point toward Anderson. The combination of their volume has pushed Curtis Samuel to the fringes of fantasy usability this season.
Mike Davis
Christian McCaffrey is expected to miss this game while recovering from an ankle injury, so we get one final week of Davis as the three-down back in Carolina. After shredding in place of McCaffrey for four weeks, Davis has come back to Earth in his past two outings. He has 8.6 and 12.5 DraftKings points in those games. The good news is that he was still operating as a workhorse back, out-carrying all other Panthers backs 25-to-5 and out-targeting them 8-to-4. Davis is a favored back at home in a game with a high total. Winning lineups from the past year with running backs at the Captain spot have averaged a 47.1 final total, higher than all positions but quarterback.
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Teddy Bridgewater
Both teams have multiple top receiving options, but only one team has a passer who has any rushing equity. Bridgewater is averaging 3.6 carries for 18.7 yards per game. He has three games with over 25 yards this season. He’s also thrown multiple touchdowns in three of the past four weeks. Bridgewater is our top projected player, and his team’s 26.75 implied team total makes him the ideal cash Captain.
Todd Gurley
Gurley has been a touchdown machine this year. He has 32 red zone rushes, second-most in the NFL. His seven rushing scores are tied for first in the NFL. Gurley is averaging a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry and 69.3 yards per game, but his touchdown opportunities are too plentiful to overlook. He offers great leverage off of the Atlanta passing game.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Matt Ryan
Ryan doesn’t make the list of preferred Captain plays simply because of how expensive he is versus the implications of a ceiling game from him. He’s $16,500 at Captain, but a 300-yard game likely would mean Jones or Ridley are getting ample catches and the 100-yard bonus as well. He’s throwing nearly 41 times per game, but the touchdowns have often gone to Gurley. Ryan is best deployed in the Flex on this slate.
Hayden Hurst
Hurst has topped 50 yards in four of seven games this year and has three games with a touchdown. However, he’s only seeing 15% of the targets in Atlanta. Hurst is a viable stacking option with Ryan because he needs the team to approach 50 attempts to have a meaningful number of targets.
Russell Gage
In the four games with Jones and Ridley healthy, Gage has still been a valuable fantasy option. He’s posting a weekly line of 6.3 catches for 69.8 yards and 0.25 touchdowns. Gage is doing that on 35.5 routes per game. He’s the best value over $1,000 this week.
Defense and Kicker
Ryan hasn’t thrown multiple interceptions once this year and has taken more than two sacks in just one game. Bridgewater has two games above both thresholds but is still completing 72.2% of his passes and averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Conversely, the Panthers are kicking 2.9 field goals per game, while the Falcons are going for three 2.4 times per game. Those marks are second and eighth. Joey Slye at $4,000 as the kicker in the favored team is a solid value.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Trenton Cannon
Cannon is the backup runner to Davis but is only averaging two carries and 0.7 targets per game. He’s mostly in play if Davis gets hurt but could catch a few passes and make the winning lineup.
Brian Hill
Hill has been automatic as a receiver. He has been targeted two times in every game this year and only has one game with fewer than two catches. Hill also has a game of 10 carries and a game of nine carries. He only costs $2,200 and is one of the best contrarian plays.
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