Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs.
Tune into NFL Live Before Lock on Sunday at 7:30pm ET for the break down of Monday’s game for single slate formats.
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New England Patriots at New York Jets +9.5 / 43.5
Ugh, another lopsided affair. At least we have a plethora of potential fantasy options. #GeeThanksBelichick
For the Sunday Night PHI at DAL breakdown click here
NFL DFS Picks: New England Patriots 26.5 implied points
For the entire week (four teams on a bye: CAR, CLE, PIT, TB), Tom Brady ranks in the mid-teens for most projection systems. Not too shabby for a 42-year old marking his 20th NFL campaign. For all the hand wringing, the Jets have been decent against the pass allowing just five touchdowns this season. Of course two of those were to Brady in the first meeting between these squads back in Week 3.
As nearly double-digit favorites, coach Bill Belichick is probably going to pull out just enough to win. That could mean a multi-touchdown game for Brady or a sub-250 yards performance. He is still the most likely player to top the fantasy point leaderboard in this game.
Oh joy, another game where we are forced to read the tea leaves and suss out who will get the opportunities from the New England backfield. Rex Burkhead is likely to sit as the Pats do not need him to win this game. That leaves Sony Michel, James White and Brandon Bolden. While Michel is getting the carries, he only has three touchdowns to show for it as Brady and Bolden had all three rushing touchdowns last week. White is, of course, better in full-PPR NFL DFS scoring formats, but he has two-touchdown upside in any game. Finally, we have Bolden, who is the latest in a long line of Belichick Fantasy Gamers running backs.
Everything in the passing game this season starts with Julian Edelman and it isn’t even close. Rob Gronkowski retired; Antonio Brown went insane; Demaryius Thomas was released, picked up, then traded and seemingly everyone else has been dinged up at some point. Josh Gordon is dealing with a knee injury and very iffy to see the field. It sounds like Phillip Dorsett will be back after working through a hamstring injury with rookie Jakobi Meyers being the third wide receiver and in line for a few looks.
|Player||Games||Snaps||Snap %||Routes||Recpts||Trgts||Rec Yds||TDs|
|Julian Edelman WR||6||379||85%||223||38||56||449||2|
|Josh Gordon WR||6||323||73%||202||20||36||287||1|
|James White RB||5||151||34%||115||31||39||224||1|
|Phillip Dorsett II WR||5||211||48%||127||15||23||197||3|
|Jakobi Meyers WR||5||154||35%||88||8||10||120||0|
|Rex Burkhead RB||4||118||27%||73||14||18||117||0|
|Ryan Izzo TE||6||271||61%||95||6||9||114||1|
|Brandon Bolden RB||5||51||11%||24||5||6||72||1|
|Sony Michel RB||6||183||41%||47||5||7||59||0|
|Antonio Brown WR||1||24||5%||14||4||8||56||1|
|Matt LaCosse TE||4||142||32%||67||3||6||55||0|
|Gunner Olszewski WR||6||64||14%||32||2||3||34||0|
|Jakob Johnson FB||4||51||11%||30||1||2||5||0|
It seems like the Patriots have found the right combination of role players, difference-makers and scheme to be one of the best fantasy defenses this season. It is almost disappointing when this unit doesn’t score a touchdown. While Sam Darnold is world’s ahead of Luke Falk, the Jets have allowed at least four sacks in all but one game this season.
NFL DFS Picks: New York Jets 17.0 implied points
It is amazing the difference Darnold is making in just his second season, leading the Jets to a convincing win over the Cowboys last Sunday. In the three games without Darnold, New York has tallied just 23 points compared to the 40 with him under center (vs. BUF, vs. DAL). The Patriots are in the top five for fantasy points allowed to every position and they are top three by nearly every advanced defensive metric. This is not an easy matchup for Darnold, but he is one of two starting quarterbacks in the game.
Frank Gore (17/109/0) is the only running back to have more than 50 rushing yards against the Patriots. Le’Veon Bell is no stranger to being to focal point of opposing defenses, but this is one of the best we have seen this decade. Ty Montgomery only has value if something happens to Bell as he has become a complete afterthought in the recent game plans.
Fortunately Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are both healthy and effective, but this is a tall ask for them to get much production. Golden Tate was the first receiver to top 100 yards (6/102/1) on the year last week against New England. Former Patriot (for just a hot minute) Demaryius Thomas is also in the mix after dealing with various minor injuries and, of course, learning the playbook.
|Player||Games||Snaps||Snap %||Routes||Recpts||Trgts||Rec Yds||TDs|
|Jamison Crowder WR||5||260||83%||166||28||40||272||0|
|Robby Anderson WR||5||289||93%||176||16||29||256||1|
|Le'Veon Bell RB||5||287||92%||147||28||33||169||1|
|Demaryius Thomas WR||3||103||33%||66||9||15||108||0|
|Ryan Griffin TE||5||285||91%||123||8||10||45||1|
|Ty Montgomery RB||5||51||16%||31||6||7||32||0|
|Braxton Berrios WR||5||34||11%||26||2||6||29||0|
|Josh Bellamy WR||5||65||21%||32||2||3||20||0|
|Vyncint Smith WR||2||15||5%||7||1||1||5||0|
|Quincy Enunwa WR||1||66||21%||45||1||3||-4||0|
Ryan Griffin will again be the main option with Chris Herndon finished with his suspension, but dealing with a hamstring injury. The price is definitely right for Griffin who teamed up with Darnold for a touchdown last weekend.
You better be sitting down when you read this next sentence. Over their last two games, the Patriots have allowed seven sacks… against Washington and at the Giants. They ceded four through their first four games. Which outcome is more likely? The Patriots have four interceptions and three fumbles lost this season.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
Notable Inactives: Chris Herndon, Rex Burkhead, Josh Gordon, Ryan Izzo, Matt LaCosse – no surprises here – Phillip Dorsett is at least active (hamstring).
As of Saturday afternoon, it will be in the low-50s at kickoff with a chance for rain as well as 10-15 mile an hour winds.
Top 10 NFL DFS Plays
- Tom Brady: he has the best chance to be the top NFL DFS fantasy producer on Monday night.
- Julian Edelman: still dealing with a chest injury, but he is the best bet to get the Patriots on the board early.
- Le’Veon Bell: he could manage to carve out a “decent” game with 80 combined yards and a touchdown and top his quarterback.
- Sam Darnold: this is our best bet to consolidate all of the Jets aerial production. That means guessing the right receiver is going to be tough.
- James White: my DraftKings preference and we have to give credence to the $3,500 savings compared to Michel on FanDuel.
- Sony Michel: should once again dominate the rushing workload. Goal line carries are an entirely different equation.
- Jamison Crowder: from my perspective, he is a little “safer” than his compatriots as New England probably won’t worry too much about the short pass.
- New England D/ST: a touchdown almost feels preordained at this point.
- Mike Nugent and Sam Ficken: how fun will it be to say Frickin’ Sam Ficken if he misses one and you played him or vice versa? Nugent has played with seven teams since kicking for the Jets.
- Robbie Anderson: best bet for a big play from the J-E-T-S jets Jets JETS!
- Phillip Dorsett: if we knew he was 100% healthy, he would have made the top ten.
- Ryan Griffin: he is the main tight end for the Jets and the minimum on FanDuel
- Jakobi Meyers: six of his ten targets have come in the last two games. Only in play if Josh Gordon is out as expected Monday.
- Brandon Bolden: in the mix for carries and potential mop up duty.
- Demaryius Thomas: not happy about being cut, resigned and then traded by the Patriots. Keep in mind he is still the fourth option on offense.
- Ty Montomery: remember when he was “touted” for a hot minute as a Best Ball steal who could potentially be on the short side of a 60/40 split with Bell?
- Rex Burkhead: even if he is active, how much will he play? Better than a lottery ticket… just barely.
- Bilal Powell: inactive for the early going, two carries and a target in the last two games.
- Gunner Olszewski: could sneak in for a target or two, but is mostly a special teamer.
- Josh Bellamy, Vyncint Smith, Braxton Berrios, Trenton Cannon and Daniel Brown: some will be inactive, some may be in uniform… we should just go buy a lottery ticket. For what it’s worth, Berrios and Smith will likely return kicks.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS with all your NFL DFS questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac