Week 10 is here and in my initial look at the NFL slate, there are some absolute smash spots for some star players this weekend. I like this slate a lot more than last week, though the emergence of value play Jaylen Samuels certainly made it a bit easier. Let’s attack Week 10 and pray that the fantasy gods are on our side. We’ve got a new format here, with a game on every page. So feel free to scroll through every game to find the fantasy football matchup or game breakdown you’re looking for. Thanks for reading!
Week 10 byes: Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, New England, Philadelphia, Washington
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
Line: CLE -2.5
Bills passing game
Another week, another high-floor performance from Josh Allen, who scored both a rushing and passing touchdown against the Redskins on Sunday. He has scored at least 17 fantasy points in all but one game this season, while his rushing has led to Allen averaging a strong 0.50 fantasy points per dropback, good for 12th-most in the league to this point. Allen is averaging a healthy 7.6 carries and 31 rushing yards per game on the year, giving him one of the highest floors in fantasy right now. And that rushing is huge when you consider that he isn’t going to give you many, if any, 300-yard passing games because he won’t be throwing the ball 40 times. But when he does throw the football, they are high-leverage attempts, as 14.4 percent of his pass attempts are traveling 20 yards or more down the field, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. His Week 10 matchup with the Browns is a middling one, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points and 10th-most rushing yards per game to opposing passers, though they did just allow Brandon Allen to complete 60 percent of his passes and throw two touchdowns in his first career start last week. Consider Allen a back-end QB1 in this road meeting with the Browns.
74 more yards for John Brown last week, who remains one of just two wide receivers in the NFL to record at least 50 receiving yards in every game this season. I’m shocked at how high the floor has been for Brown all year long, as he’s seen nearly 24 percent of Buffalo’s targets on the year. He has also seen 37 percent of the air yards, the 10th-highest rate among all wide receivers. There haven’t been as many boom games for Smoke in his first season with the Bills but his impact has been massive to this team. The consistent volume and safe floor has made him a top-25 wide receiver (at least) each and every week the rest of the way, though this week’s matchups isn’t the greatest. The Browns have both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back from injury and over the course of the season, they have been worse at defending the slot.
Enter Cole Beasley, who has now scored a touchdown in three consecutive games after failing to find the end zone in his first five games. You can never bank on touchdowns, but especially with a player like Beasley. He has now caught three passes or less in four straight games, which is odd for someone like Beasley, who can rack up the receptions. Once again, Buffalo has a solid matchup for Beasley here and we have a ton of teams on bye, making him a viable WR3 in deeper PPR formats. Cleveland has already allowed a whopping five touchdowns to opposing slot wide receivers on the year, as middle linebacker Joe Schobert has allowed four touchdowns in coverage this season (2nd-most), as well as 23 catches on 26 targets.
Bills running game
He got the first two carries of the game and never looked back.
After seeing a limited workload when active this year, Devin Singletary was unleashed on Sunday, touching the ball 23 times for 140 yards and a touchdown against Washington. Heading into this game, eight of Singletary’s 20 carries on the year went for 10 yards or more, teasing the Bills with his potential. It was great to see him remain efficient with a big workload and has now rushed for at least five yards on nearly 39 percent of his carries on the year. Meanwhile, his eight carries of 15 yards or more are the eighth-most in the league, despite being the only back in that range with less than 50 carries. Everyone else has 70 carries or more. Buffalo looks to have fully committed to their rookie running back, as he touched the ball on 56 percent of his snaps last week, the fifth-highest rate of Week 9. He played 66 percent of the snaps, while veteran Frank Gore played 34 percent and touched the football 11 times. Gore was awful, totaling 15 yards on his 11 carries, while failing to score from a yard out three consecutive times.
Singletary is now a solid RB2 in fantasy and has a great chance at an encore performance this week. The Browns are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (141.3) and have allowed four running back touchdowns over the last four weeks. They are also coughing up 4.9 yards per carry this season, the third-highest mark in the league. Singletary has shown plenty of big play upside and the Browns are allowing the sixth-most rushing plays of 20 yards or more. Behind an improved offensive line that is allowing Buffalo backs to average 3.10 yards before contact per rush (6th-best), Singletary should continue to produce, especially against a Browns defense allowing a league-worst 3.41 yards before first contact per rush.
Browns passing game
Each week it appears that Baker Mayfield is improving in the slightest bit. He threw for 273 yards on Sunday, his most since Week 4, while going the entire game without turning the ball over, the first time he’s done that all season. Even with six teams on a bye, it will be tough to trust Mayfield as a starting option this week against an elite Buffalo secondary that is coughing up just 9.2 yards per completion (5th-best), 5.6 yards per pass attempt (3rd-best) and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game this season (2nd-best). The Bills are also surrendering just 1.29 points per drive this year, the third-fewest in the NFL, while opponents are averaging just 26.1 yards per drive, also the third-lowest mark in football. Despite the tough matchup, Mayfield is at home and just $5,000 on DraftKings, so you wouldn’t need much from him, while allowing you to spend up elsewhere. Still, it is very difficult to get excited about Mayfield in general, but especially against arguably the best pass defense in the NFL.
Odell Beckham Jr. had a fortunate 39-yard catch and run towards the end of the game last week, salvaging what would have been another bad fantasy day. Beckham hasn’t found the end zone since his explosion against the Jets back in Week 2, and has been under 60 yards in four games this year. His 24 percent market share is outside of the top-12 in the league and is averaging just 0.20 fantasy points per snap, which is outside the top-50 among all wide receivers. This week’s matchup isn’t great, especially because Buffalo used All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White to shadow Terry McLaurin last week, as he followed the rookie on 80 percent of his routes. It was the first time White shadowed anyone all year and it might have been a one-week thing since Washington has zero playmakers in the passing game outside of McLaurin. It is very possible that he still shadows Beckham in this game, though it likely wouldn’t be on 80 percent of his routes. White remains very good in coverage, having yet to allow a touchdown, while picking off three passes and allowing just a 49.8 passer rating when targeted. This keeps Odell in the WR20 range, as opposed to WR10 and although the matchup is tough, we know the upside Beckham has, and he remains very cheap in daily contests.
Beckham is the better player but Jarvis Landry may once again be the better play. I liked him quite a bit last week and he delivered, catching six balls for 51 yards and a touchdown. Landry was targeted 13 times, as Denver’s Chris Harris Jr. shadowed Beckham on nearly 80 percent of his routes. If Buffalo matches White up with Beckham, targets could funnel to Landry again, as White is being targeted on just 16 percent of his cover routes this season. Buffalo plays a zone defense so the middle of the field is your best chance at success, while Landry continues to operate out of the slot 71 percent of the time this season. Consider him a solid WR3 in PPR leagues, while Landry once again makes for a fine cash play at just $4,900 on DK.
Browns running game
This absolutely should be a smash spot for Nick Chubb. The Bills have been gashed by the run as of late and Chubb remains one of the top backs in the league. And while I do believe he has a good game here, there are two minor concerns. For starters, his snaps have been down lately, as Chubb is playing 62 percent of the snaps since Week 7, while backup Dontrell Hilliard is at 40 percent. He’s been taking third down work away from Chubb, which was an issue during the first two weeks of the year. Secondly, Kareem Hunt is now off suspension and eligible to play in this game. While I think he is nothing more than a change of pace back (for now), it is still a slight concern. But again, this matchup is so, so good.
Over the last three weeks, no team in football is allowing more interior rushing yards than the Bills, according to beat writer Marcel Louis-Jacques. And during that span, Buffalo has surrendered four running back touchdowns and just allowed Adrian Peterson to run for 100 yards a week ago. The Bills are now allowing 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game on the year (5th-most), while 56.2 percent of the touchdowns scored against this defense have come on the ground, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Chubb has seen 20 carries in five games this season and remains inside the top-five in opportunity share, so hopefully the return of Hunt won’t impact his workload too much. Regardless, I have him as an elite play this week and I love his $7,000 price tag on DK.