Week 10 Monday Night Football
Greetings Gamers! Clearly we are winding things down on the regular season with just seven full weeks left, so let’s make them all count!
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New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 / 44.5
New York Giants 20.5 implied points
Quarterback – Eli Manning clearly is looking over his shoulder because at some point the organization is going to want to see what… oh wait, 4th round rookie Kyle Lauletta from the University of Richmond and third year man Alex Tanney from Monmouth College (the one in Monmouth Illinois not to be confused with Monmouth University in Monmouth, New Jersey) who has appeared in one game, way back in 2015 when he was a rookie with the Tennessee Titans. Oh where are ye Davis Webb and Gino Smith?
The ‘Niners have been a middle-of-the-pack passing defense this season with the #17 DVOA per Football Outsiders and they have allowed the tenth fewest fantasy points to opposing signal-callers (facing Josh Rosen twice as well as Derek Carr has helped some too). They have allowed just three quarterbacks to top 300+ yards (Stafford 347, Mahomes 314 and Rodgers 425), though they have given up multiple aerial scores in six of nine games.
The youngest Manning brother is a hot mess with just 8 TDs on the season against 6 INTs and while his yardage totals are respectable, he has lucked out with Odell Beckham Jr and Saquon Barkely breaking some big gains on short and intermediate routes as Eli is no longer effective with his down the field throws.
Insert comment about how he is just one of two starting quarterbacks in the single game player pool and how we still have to give him some consideration.
Running Back – Saquon Barkley will be making his fourth appearance on a prime time slate (yes, playing in the largest television market in the country will garner multiple featured games) in his rookie season. The 49ers have the #16 rushing DVOA defense from an efficiency standpoint and they have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to opposing ball carriers this season – mostly on the strength of just six touchdowns allowed to the position.
Barkley is in the mix for top overall honors on the full slate for running backs and he should be wildly popular on all prime time slates with either a touchdown or 100+ combined yards in every game this season. All other New York running backs have accumulated 129 total yards with Wayne Gallman getting most of that paltry figure with 15/48/0 on the ground and 12 targets for 8/62/0 through the air.
Wide Receiver – Odell Beckham Jr. should not have too much trouble with the oft injured Richard Sherman as he will run a variety of routes and even with his new team, Sherman has generally stuck to playing one side of the field (left). Beckham is having a fine season, even with his limited quarterback and he is #6 with 98.1 receiving yards per game T4 with 91 targets and T4 with 61 receptions and T9 with 11 plays of 20+ yards – the lonely pair of touchdown receptions is the only thing keeping him out of the top three at this position.
Sterling Shepard is the clear third option on this limited offense and he has played just six fewer snaps than Beckham this season with a respectable 59 targets for 40/542/2 and he is worthy of consideration on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the single game contests. The remaining wide receivers have combined for just 31 targets, though Bennie Fowler did get seven of those in the last game, so while that may be a blip on the radar, he is a potential player to be overlooked on DraftKings with his $7,200 price tag which some may feel is too high.
Tight End – after missing three weeks, Evan Engram has come back strong playing 89% and 81% of the snaps each of the last two weeks with 9 and 4 targets respectively. Even with his absence, he still leads the position with 26 of the 49 total targets as Rhett Ellison saw 1 and 2 in the same time span while playing just shy of half the snaps. Game log watchers are not going to be particularly interested in Engram, however, over his last 21 games he has 141 targets for 81/867/8 which is actually a pretty solid contribution level.
Defense/Special Teams – on the full slate, the Giants actually check in as a mid-tier defense, of course a lot of that has to do with them facing a San Francisco squad that is down to their 3rd-string QB, their often in-game injury prone 2nd-string RB and a host of dinged up and tertiary WRs along with the equally injured top TE. Their 31 sacks are T3 on the season for most allowed – but the DECIMATED G-men have managed just 10 sacks which is ahead of only the measly 7 accrued by the Oakland Raiders.
The ‘Niners have allowed 18 combined turnovers witch is the fourth highest total in the league, but again this New York squad falls short with the 4th fewest takeaways at a paltry 7, so YMMV.
San Francisco 49ers 24.0 implied points
Quarterback – undrafted free agent Nick Mullens looked like a seasoned veteran on Monday Night Football last week against the Tankland Raiders with a very solid 262 passing yards and a trio of aerial touchdowns going 16 for 22 and this week does not seem more trying by any stretch of the imagination.
Though the Giants have only allowed multiple touchdowns to three opposing quarterbacks (Wentz, Netwon and Watson for a combined eight), it is not like the G-men have tested their opposition sitting with a 1-7 record and topping 18 points only thrice thus far in 2018.
For the deeeeeeeeeeep discount, for the daring Mullens is in consideration for “cash games” if you have a high risk tolerance for the expanded slates and he is most definitely in the mix on any of the abbreviated action.
Running Back – Matt Breida is either bionic or made of paper mache as he cannot seen to stay healthy in-game as the Jerrick McKinnon understudy, but now he is without surging former special teamer Raheem Mostert who had a brief shinning moment before a “Theisman” like broken bone on Monday Night Football.
While Alfred Morris is still lurking as one of the remaining healthy RBs for the ‘Niners he has been outsnapped 115 to 41 over the last three games by H-Back (yeah that is an outdated term, but hell, so is fullback) Kyle Juszczyk.
DAMMIT THOUGH on MNF Morris lead the team with a half dozen red zone looks – everyone here is a wild card at best and based on salary and opportunity on both DraftKings and FanDuel for my squads, I am rolling Breida, Juszczyk and then Morris – but WE MUST ACKNOWLEDGE that truly anything can happen, particularly if Breida suffers yet another in-game ding.
Wide Receiver – Pierre Garcon has been ruled out with a knee injury, Trent Taylor was inactive last week with back issues, former University of Washington (hey, my alma mater) ace Dante Pettis who has the honor of being MORE HEALTHY than former college teammate John Ross (CIN) with 18 on-field plays over the last two tilts seems to be in the mix, but can we trust him… probably not! So now we have second year Eastern Washington Eagle Kendrick Bourne in play and at least he has a dozen targets over the last two games for 9/76/1 and Olympian Marquise Goodwin who has seen 8 targets for two catches, 66 yards and a score the last two weeks. Hell, can we get Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens to ditch their golden HOF jackets and suit up with pads?
Tight End – George Kittle is by far and away the leading pass catcher for San Francisco, but now he too is questionable with a chest injury (please note that he has been removed from the injury designation list, but that does not mean one solid hit won’t knock him out of commission). Kittle has seen nearly as many targets as the next two top options and he nearly has more receiving yards than the next best THREE ‘Niners. If we know he is starting, he is the best option in the passing game – but we really are playing “whack-a-mole” on Monday night.
Defense/Special Teams – the Giants are a mess allowing 15 sacks over their last three games (WAS 7, ATL 4 and PHI 4) and they have allowed 3+ in six of their eight games. The 5 fumbles and 6 INTs are reasonable, but we can still target against Eli Manning and take solace that we will almost assuredly see the “Manning Face” multiple times.
Strategy – we are going to want to get Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham on as many lineups as we can, which in turn means we will need to find some discount dandies to facilitate this strategy and also provide us with some differentiation from The Masses.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Saquon Barkley (he projected as a top five option for the full-slate in all formats, so by all means we will want to roll with him Monday – just expect 70-80% of our closest friends to follow suit)
- Odell Beckham Jr (as detailed above, he has been outstanding this season, despite his poor quarterback)
- Sterling Shepard (this is one of my differentiation plays as I am hoping that gamers are going to overlook his steady consistency with 7+ targets in all but one game and the lack of touchdowns for over a month ideally have him off-the-radar – as much as one can be in a single game player pool)
- George Kittle (second in the league among tight ends for receiving yards, trailing only Travis Kelce heading into Week 10 82.3 ypg to 76.9 ypg)
- Evan Engram (wow, considering I loathe Eli Manning it is humorous that I prefer Giants with four of my first five recommendations?!)
- Nick Mullens (one good game from a rookie undrafted free agent keeps him out of the top five, but I suspect he will be the 3rd or 4th most popular player on the single game slate)
- Matt Breida (forever an in-game injury concern, based on his secure role in the SF backfield, we must give him consideration – but I am willing to go for “the fade” as a differentiation move – this is particularly intriguing on DraftKings where if we consider that Breida only has 14 targets for 12/93/1 receiving, as long as he stays out of the end zone, it could pay off handsomely)
- Eli Manning (oh Eli you Trickster, could this be the week that you have one last hurrah and tease us with a 400 yard game or was the 399 outing against Atlanta the final encore performance? Fun Fact: every season since 2011, Manning has topped 400 yards passing in a single game – we have to think in today’s NFL, with his many talented options that he should continue that streak…)
- San Francisco D/ST (we want sacks and the Giants should oblige – I am good with rolling a G-men onslaught with this unit being my lone representative from the ‘Niners)
- Robbie Gould (multiple field goal attempts in 7 of 9 games and he is at home)
- Aldrick Rosas (the second year man from Southern Oregon University has been brilliant with just one missed field goal and nailing the other 17 – the lack of PATs is not really a concern, but he has been a perfect 9 of 9 when called upon for the rare Giants point after touchdowns)
- New York D/ST (while the 49ers did not allow a sack against Oakland, they have still given up 11 in their last three games and have allowed 3+ in six contests – we have to think that the rookie QB for San Francisco will throw a pick as well, so this unit is in play)
- Alfred Morris Jr. (there is a higher than normal chance that Matt Breida suffers an injury and there is no Raheem Mostert to turn to)
- Bennie Fowler (the former Michigan State Spartan is now healthy and he has played in the last two games – particularly of note is his last appearance which netted him seven targets for 4/48/0 and at his paltry $1,200 price tag on DraftKings, he is someone to consider)
- Kyle Juszczyk (there is always a chance of a fumble in the end zone and he recovers it for a TD – otherwise, we are looking at 2-3 touches and well not much goodness)
- Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne (the former Olympian Goodwin has the name recognition, but Bourne is just as likely to see as many opportunities at about a third of the popularity)
- Richie James Jr. (if he is on the winning lineup, how fun will it be to quote the hilarious Dave Chappelle “Rick James Bitch” sketches – only consider if you are a habitual line-stepper)
- Trent Taylor (with Pierre Garcon already ruled out, there is a chance that Taylor could be active and overlooked – by both The Masses and the San Francisco game plan)
- Dante Pettis (only gets a mention as he is from my alma mater – the University of Washington, he has only been active in a handful of games and is not someone to expect anything from)
- Anyone Else on either active roster
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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