The Bears head to Detroit to take on the Lions in Week 1. Can Mitchell Trubisky lead Chicago to victory over Matthew Stafford and the Lions? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column – going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We’ve got _ games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bears – Lions.
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Bears (20.25) at Lions (23.25) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Lions’ Matthew Stafford was having a masterfully efficient season before going down with a back injury midseason (No. 2 in adjusted yards per attempt, good for QB4 in fantasy leagues) last year. The season derailed for Detroit once Stafford was shelved, but the passing game should spring right back to life with him back at the helm. Though Chicago’s defense still possesses superstar Khalil Mack and a litany of quality players behind him (Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith) that fueled their 2018 playoff run, the secondary is not the same as it was just two seasons ago. Already shorthanded at cornerback, the loss of Artie Burns (knee) to season-ending IR is a major blow, particularly against the Lions, whose passing attack is predicated on taking shots to 1A and 1B wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
Both have averaged over seven targets per game over the last two seasons, and even more appetizing for fantasy football, Golladay led the league in targets of at least 20 air yards per game (2.9) and was second in the league in targets inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Danny Amendola should maintain his underneath role (6.4 targets per game in 2019) for now, but while it might not be Week 1, look for fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus to eventually push the 34-year-old for playing time as the third receiver. Last year’s first-round pick, tight end T.J. Hockenson, says he’s still recovering from last season’s injuries, but the Lions would be crazy not to utilize him in the passing game as well. Expect 4-7 targets for Hockenson in Week 1. (Update: the Lions may be without Golladay, now questionable for Sunday’s game. If he’s unable to suit-up, expect the Bears defense to attempt to eliminate Marvin Jones. If that’s the case, targets could be funneled toward Hockenson or Amendola. Marvin Hall would get run in this scenario, as well.)
Despite the depth-related signing of Peterson after he was dropped by Washington, the most important new wrinkle for the Lions is the addition of D’Andre Swift, a premiere athlete with elite size and speed. Swift missed over a week’s worth of practices due to leg issues, but even when compared to the high hopes of 2018 second-round back Kerryon Johnson (who’s still wearing a knee brace), the Lions have not had a running back who can do what Swift can do in a long, long time. If he’s healthy (and can keep Stafford upright on blitz pickups), he’s the football equivalent of a sports car, and the Lions won’t wait too long to take him for a spin. Johnson might be the starter for now, with Adrian Peterson creating a dreaded three man running back timeshare to open up the season, but Swift absolutely has the talent to take over the backfield in year one.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
In Chicago, the team announced Mitchell Trubisky as the starter, meaning Nick Foles, for whom the Bears paid a fourth-rounder this off-season to acquire, will begin the season riding the pine. We’d have to imagine that this is the shortest leash for any quarterback in some time. Trubisky has had some DFS upside as a low-owned scrambler (3.2 carries per game), but you’re ludicrous if you’re planning on starting him in fantasy, as one bad drive could lead to a permanent benching.
Star receiver Allen Robinson, continually trapped in quarterback purgatory, should command his customary 7-10 looks, and Anthony Miller will be involved at the second wideout position. But don’t forget about Jimmy Graham, who was signed this offseason from Green Bay and will likely command red zone targets should the bears make it there. In the backfield, the Bears are already hurting.
Starting running back David Montgomery is expected to miss this week (groin strain) but looks poised to return soon. That means for Week 1, the 5-foot-6, 179-pound Tarik Cohen should get starter reps, spelled by Ryan Nall and rookie Artavis Pierce. Cohen never had more than nine carries in a game last year, but he should be a lock for that as well as his typical passing game work (6.5 targets per game in 2019). The Lions invested a ton in free agency on the defense, bringing in former Patriots Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton, while spending their first- and third-rounders on corner Jeff Okudah and edge Julian Okwara. It shouldn’t be surprising if we’re mentioning the Lions as one of the up-and-coming defenses in the NFL a few weeks into 2020.
Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 14
Alternative Scenario: The Bears defense keeps them in the game, pressuring Stafford and forcing multiple mistakes. Bears 17, Lions 14.
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