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The Slant And Go: Injuries Continue To Create NFL DFS Value In Week 4




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The NFL season is here, and there are NFL DFS picks and NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo contests to get right into. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article.

The Slant and Go: NFL DFS Thoughts for DraftKings + FanDuel

Mike Davis Stepping Into The Christian McCaffrey Role

One of the top value plays from last weekend, Davis did not disappoint. I doubt he will put up massive rushing numbers, but he doesn’t have to. Due to the massive role that Davis is taking on in the passing game, he figures to continue racking up PPR points. This makes him more of a favorable play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he’s viable on both sites. Across the NFL DFS industry, Davis remains too cheap for his current role. The Panthers are using him almost like he is McCaffrey. Davis has back-to-back games with eight receptions, and since Carolina is an underdog this week, the game script sets up for a healthy amount of targets again. Davis is likely to lead the Panthers in targets until McCaffrey returns.

Coronavirus Concerns Put A Couple Of Games At Risk

The big football news on Tuesday is that the Titans returned eight positive COVID tests. As of now, it’s not clear what this means for Week 4 games. Since the Titans played against the Vikings on Sunday, games for both teams could get canceled this weekend. This puts Titans – Steelers and Texans – Vikings in flux. It’s also possible that no games will get canceled and we will get value from individual players that have to sit out for testing positive. As always, the important note here is to pay attention to the news. There is more uncertainty and a greater chance for late scratches than we have seen in previous seasons. It’s not wise to set lineups on Saturday night and forget about them.

Chris Godwin Expected To Miss Time

The Buccaneers’ wide receiver corps is battling all kinds of issues to open the season. Mike Evans started the year with a hamstring issue. Now Godwin has a hamstring injury, and Rob Gronkowski got off to a really slow start. With that said, Gronkowski finally showed signs of life in Week 3. I wrote him off, but maybe he has a little left in the tank from a fantasy perspective.

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Gronkowski won’t return to the player he once was. However, he was targeted seven times last week. Now that Tom Brady has lost his top slot receiver, I wonder if we could see more targets start to go the way of a player he’s comfortable with in Gronkowski. Since tight end is proving a tough position to fill this season, Gronkwoski is somebody I will look to get some shares of as long as his ownership stays in check this week. We also have to consider that Scott Miller would slide into Godwin’s role, but he is also questionable to play this week. The deep Buccaneers receiving corps is quickly becoming thin.

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Chris Carson Suffers Knee Injury On Dirty Play

It certainly looked like Trysten Hill attempted to injure Carson. On a play that was already over, Hill gator rolled over Carson’s knee, causing it to bend awkwardly. The good news here is that Carson only has a minor knee sprain. This likely isn’t a long-term issue, but Carson likely will sit out this week. He’s officially considered questionable for the game against the Dolphins. Due to the opponent, I think the Seahawks are more likely to take it easy with Carson and give him the week off than risk it and play him.

Assuming that Carson doesn’t play, this sets up as a perfect spot for Carlos Hyde. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite early in the week, and there is a chance the spread widens as the week goes on. Even though this is the Russell Wilson season, the Seahawks might not need Wilson to air it out much in Week 4. The Dolphins’ defense is ranked last in DVOA and 31st in run DVOA. Hyde is cheap on all NFL DFS sites, so he might end up as one of the top value plays on the slate if Carson is out.

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Uptick In Role For Devin Singletary With Zack Moss Out

Moss is a key player that we need an update on ahead of this weekend’s games. Dealing with a toe injury, he sat out Sunday’s win over the Rams, leading to a Singletary finally playing a big role for the Bills. Last year, there were a bunch of situations where Singletary looked like a great value play, and it never came to fruition. The Bills always found a way to take snaps away from him and give them to Frank Gore. On Sunday, Singletary was in on a season-high 55 snaps, getting 17 touches, including four receptions. Through three weeks, the Raiders rank 32nd in run DVOA, so this is a great spot for Singletary if Moss has to sit out again.

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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